So here it is, my mock draft for the first seven selections. I asked you for yours, now here's mine.
Let me start out by saying that I think there will be a lot of trading and jostling among these top picks, but for the, um, integrity (?) of the mock I’ll pick in the order in which teams currently stand. We'll get right to it.
Dolphins: Matt Ryan
Rams: Jake Long
Falcons: Chris Long
Raiders: Darren McFadden
Chiefs: Ryan Clady
Jets: Vernon Gholston
Patriots: Jerod Mayo
This will almost certainly change between now and the end of April. In the meantime, click below for the analysis. After that, let the great debate commence.
DOLPHINS
They want nothing to do with this first overall pick and it’ll probably wind up in someone else’s hands. However, they do have glaring needs. The defense is getting older and the offense is, well, pretty bad. I think if they have to use this pick they will go offense. That means either Jake Long or Matt Ryan. It’s probably easier to find a serviceable left tackle in this league than a clear starting-caliber quarterback. The Dolphins have to start somewhere, and QB might as well be that place. MATT RYAN
RAMS
The Rams have enjoyed great stability from Pace at left tackle over the years, and I think they recognize how comfortable it can be to fill a position and not have to worry about it for 10 or 12 years. Jake Long becomes an immediate heir to the position, even though he may have to wait a year or two to take it over. In the meantime they’ll have two pretty good bookends. JAKE LONG
FALCONS
The No. 3 overall pick in each of the past two years has gone to the Pro Bowl as a rookie (Vince Young and Joe Thomas), so there’s something to be said for the value at this level. The Falcons are another one of those teams that has so many areas that need improving. After the year they just went through, they’ll want to stay as far away from the character landmines (perceived or otherwise) associated with Darren McFadden. They’ll be looking for a Boy Scout who sings in the choir and helps little ladies cross the street. CHRIS LONG
RAIDERS
Here’s where it gets interesting. And by interesting I mean dysfunctional and fascinating from a distance. Who knows what the Raiders and Uncle Al will wind up doing. They could trade the pick to anyone who wants McFadden. They could take McFadden themselves. They could take Glenn Dorsey to replace Warren Sapp. They could just start throwing cream pies around Radio City and incite an NFL-wide food fight. That’s how crazy the Raiders can be. Ultimately, though, the Raiders love star power and Davis still loves those rough around the edges guys (as I said, perceived or otherwise). DARREN McFADDEN
CHIEFS
A few months ago everyone figured that Dorsey would go No. 1. Now he could be this year’s Brady Quinn because the Chiefs need help on their offensive line and probably won’t take him. They’ll settle on the second-best offensive lineman in the draft and hope that it can help Larry Johnson return to form coming off a foot injury. RYAN CLADY
JETS
Ah, the moment you’ve all been waiting for (or, as my English professors would say, the moment for which you have all been waiting). Ryan’s gone. McFadden’s gone. What do the Jets need? Well, they need a slot receiver and a starting cornerback, but they’re probably not going to spend this high of a pick in that effort (though trading down in the first round for Limas Sweed is still my gut feeling). They need an outside pass rusher to pair up with Calvin Pace, although that does leave the expensive Bryan Thomas in limbo. What they don’t need is another 300-plus pounder for the center of their defense, which, ironically, is what’s still available in Dorsey. Well, the Jets do love to take those Ohio State guys. VERNON GHOLSTON
PATRIOTS
They need to bolster their secondary and will probably trade down with a team that will want to grab Dorsey. Maybe the Broncos or Panthers who pick 5 or 6 slots later. And the Patriots’ offense is certainly not a problem area, although protecting Brady from the Giants defensive linemen proved to be a little tougher than they thought. Ultimately they have to start thinking about replacing the aging pieces of their defense like Seau, Bruschi, Harrison. They’ll need a player who switch inside and outside at linebacker to fill the voids of inevitable injury. Dorsey is still on the board. So is Derrick Harvey of Florida. But the Patriots go with versatility. JEROD MAYO
Comments (12)
Gholston's the guy I want, so I think your picks are extremely intelligent, and insightful ;)
If Gholston's not there, I'm hoping we trade the pick, so we can upgrade 2 positions, perhaps CB & WR, or safety.
By the way, Tom, do we have an issue at punter?
I seem to remember Graham being released, although the Jets site still has him.
Graham was benched for the next-to-last game of the season but he wasn't released. There was a story on him recently on the team's website. Check it out at:
http://www.newyorkjets.com/news/articles/show/2109-ben-graham-tees-it-up-drives-into-off-season
Are you sure you want Gholston? Sporting News has him ranked as only the fifth-best DE, behind Long, Calais Campbell, Phillip Merling and Lawrence Jackson.
SN says Gholston "is inconsistent and gets swallowed up by big linemen ... rarely moves well laterally to chase plays, laboring down the line ... is slow in pursuit and does not hustle to opposite sideline ... will not be able to bull-rush many NFL linemen ... often disappeared in games."
This does not sound like someone who's worth a sixth overall pick.
How about offering the pick (and maybe something more) to Detroit for Roy Williams or Calvin Johnson, especially if McFadden is still on the board? They're better than any WRs in the draft.
I think the Jets have the following order:
C. Long
V. Gholston
D. McFadden
J. Long
M. Ryan
D. Rodgers-Cromartie
L. McKelvin
Whoever is available when they pick, they'll follow that order of precedence.
No need to do anything rash like trade for a WR or take one in rounds 1 & 2. Coles and Cotchery will be together for at least the next two years. Given the time, both QBs can make the throws to whomever is running routes.
Rodger, good list. WR in round two, though. Takes time to learn routes. Usually a year or two.
We definitly need a WR and a Defensive Back. I think if Matt Ryan slips we should take him, otherwise if McFadden is available we should select him. If both are gone trade down and get a Tall Fast WR, we haven't had a receive with true speed and size since Al Toon. Coles is a great interior WR, but doesn't demand any double teams. We need a field stretcher regardless of who our QB is.
I've gotta disagree with you Tom. I think the Falcons will look to select Dorsey with the 3rd pick overall. He is probably the best player in this draft despite the rumors about his knee and tibia. After letting Rod Coleman go, the only decent player the Falcons have at DT is Babineax. If that's the scenario I think it puts the Jets in a great situation. Assuming the first two picks go the way you have foreseen, the Raiders are left with a choice of McFadden or Chris Long. I'm guessing they will take one of them. I think you are spot on with the Chiefs pick and think Clady may turn out to be a better LT than Jake Long. This leaves the Jets with McFadden or Chris Long, Gholston or a choice of the top CB. With Dorsey gone, I think those teams you mentioned, Broncos or Panthers, may look to move up for Sedrick Ellis. On the other hand, Dallas might be looking to make a move for McFadden. Then again, the Jets could just go ahead and take Long or McFadden.
In another scenario, the Dolphins take Chris Long #1 and Ryan may drop to the Jets. There are plenty of teams that would like to move up for the top QB in the draft (Baltimore, Minnesota, Chicago).
nice blog tom!
All these stupid mocks are just that, stupid!
ROCK - nice shot, but I agree with Ilan, Atlanta takes Dorsey if he's there. I hope top 2 are as you say, but I doubt Miami goes for QB until later. Parcells has a history of drafting D, or trading for more picks (notable exception was Bledsoe who was clearly the top prospect in his draft, vs Ryan who's probably, but not certainly, better than other QBs). Can't see Chris Long falling to #6, but maybe?? Would prefer him over Gholston-Mamula - a guy that NEVER forced a fumble in his entire college career!!!
PS - The only way NE drafts Mayo in the 1st round is if Goddell gives them back the 31st pick!! You've got him going waaaaaay to high, especially to a team that historically does not draft LB higher than mid-rounds.
Tom,
I have to agree with Rock Chopper. Ryan isn't worthy of the #1 pick, and isn't that much better than Brohm or Henne. I think Miami will take Chris Long if Tuna can't trade down, and take a QB at the top of the 2nd round, or possibly even trade up into late 1st round and take Brohm who is considered the most ready to play in the NFL.
I could see the Rams taking Jake Long as Pace hasn't played a full season in a couple of years, and their QBs have taken a beating. I could also see them taking Dorsey and moving Carriker back outside where he belongs.
If Dorsey is still available I think he could be the Falcons' man, but if not I think they'll go with Ryan, or perhaps surprise everyone and take Brohm.
Even though Davis is a wacko and loves speed, if Chris Long is still available, I think he takes him. If not, then he takes McFadden unless Dallas blows him aways with an offer.
I think the Chiefs will take Clady, but if Dorsey's still there, they could just as easily go that route, and look to take an OT (Gosder Cherilus) in the second round.
I think the Jets will probably take Gholston, but I hope they will trade down so they can fill more needs, and then take either Quentin Groves or Cliff Avril for the pass-rushing OLB spot.
No way the Pats take Mayo. Pioli and Belichik didn't build that dynasty by "reaching" for players or trading up. They always get good value. My bet is they take Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, the best CB prospect since Deion Sanders.
the jets stink jump on the bronco bandwagon.d-robertson will be a pro bowler in denver.