By Tom Rock
Eric Mangini was asked today if a team can win with a quarterback who completes 52 percent of his passes. Hmmm. That just so happens to be the percentage of passes that Kellen Clemens has completed this year.
“It depends on what 52 percent you’re completing,” he said. “If they’re all touchdowns, it’d probably be okay.”
In Clemens’ case, they are not. In fact, only 1.8 percent of Clemens’ passes have been for touchdowns while 4.4 percent have gone for interceptions. In fact, of the 33 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 14 passes per game (the NFL barometer when measuring statistics), his four TDs are the lowest in the league, tied with Rex Grossman. Clemens’ 59.0 passer rating is the second lowest and his completion percentage is the second lowest (he barely edges out Trent Dilfer for worst NFL quarterback in those regards).
“You want to see the efficiency of moving the team down the field and being able to score,” Mangini said. “That’s where I want to see progress.”
Maybe he’ll see it on Sunday. And everything will be OK.
Comments (9)
Jet fans have been pounding Chad Pennington for his dink and dunk passing but praising Clemmons for his strong arm. A telling statistic is that Pennington has a higher YPC than Clemmons.
Clemmons is simply inaccurate and you can't teach accuracy. Put together a strong arm and inaccuracy and what you get is a low QB rating, INT's and dropped passes. Notice how when Pennington was scapegoated and benched all the Jets receivers suddenly got a case of the drops when Clemmons was named the starter.
Clemmons won't be in the league two years from now, I said that that the day he was drafted. In college his first three years he operated out of a standard pro style offense and wasn't rated in the top 25 in any passing category. As a senior his new offensive coordinator installed a run and shoot offense and he was top ten is statistics for the 6 games he played before breaking his leg.
Run and Shoot QB's consistently put up great college stats, are awardered Heisman trophies are high draft picks and inevitably fail as NFL QB's...
Andre Ware, Danny Weurful. Ty Detmer, Timmy Chang, Kliff Kingsbury were all Run and Shoot QB's who failed in the NFL. Colt Brennan is this years Heismann trophy candidate, projected first round pick who came out of a Run and Shoot offense and led the nation in virtually every QB passing statistic.
Buyer beware!
To attribute the inordinate number of drops with Clemens as QB to inaccuracy is, well, inaccurate. Had I not watched so many of his starts that might make sense in theory. However, it is more likely the result of a difference in velocity from Pennington or, more likely, just dumb luck.
Now, I'm sure RAJ will make the case that Chad had more than his share of drops as well but I am certain that Clemens has had a significantly higher number. And what's more, the nature of the drops, more than just the sheer number, has had a signficant effect on his QB rating.
If you look at the tapes, and without getting into specifics, many of them would have resulted in long completions and/or TD's (Coles, McCareins), and many would have likely had a signficant impact on the outcome of games (McCareins, Cotchery, Smith, Baker). Now, I'm not yet sold on whether Clemens is our starting QB next year and beyond, but to conclude he's a washout based on his performance so far is premature, IMO.
Stats alone rarely give the total picture and frequently can be misleading, particularly with such a small sample size as with Clemens. I prefer to rely on my own eyes, and based on what I have seen Clemens has shown better than average accuracy, the ability to complete the long pass and the ability to put some zip on the ball when needed to complete the intermediate pass between defenders. Those latter two attributes have been lacking in Chad's game for at least the past few years, if not longer.
What remains to be seen with Clemens is whether he has the ability to read defenses well and make appropriate adjustments, something that Chad has been good at historically (but not this season). This is perhaps the hardest element of the game for a young QB to master, and Clemens' struggles with reading defenses to this point, while cause for concern, is not a reason to give up on him yet.
Clemens has shown enough promise, IMO, to warrant a longer look. To insist he will be out of the game within two years is laughable.
Just to throw my 2 cents into this discussion. I have seen several occasions where KC just plain over or under threw wide open receivers. Take the Thanksgiving game against Dallas for example. the 1st pass required Baker to make a one great handed circus catch, and KC had no presssure on him at all.
It is too soon to gain a full picture of his capabilities, but after the same amount of starts, other starting QB's, including #10, have shown some ability to lead their teams. Not sure if I can that about KC, IMO. To me, he hasn't looked much different than Brooks Bollinger or Browning Nagle.
Would those guys have develpoed with more starts, or were they as good as they were going to get?
If Chad is gone next year, and like everyone else i'm sure he will be, it'll be interesting to see what vert they bring in to back him up or compete with him.
It continues to amaze me how people, not just fans but more "sophisticated" media types, expect instant results from this quarterback. Look at JaMarcus Russell, the number 1 pick in the league, for comparison. It took a guy like Terry Bradshaw four or five years to become a proficient NFL quarterback. Now they give you four or five games if you're lucky.
Why do the Jets need to draft Jake Long? 2 years ago they drafted 2 linemen in the 1st round. There is no need to take a lineman again in the 1st round. Sign a free agent and then draft in the laster rounds.
Maybe, if Tannanbaum does his homework the Jets will have a good lineman in the later rounds. This team needs playmakers on both sides of the ball. But it does start with the O line and D line. Look at New England and the Colts. Peyton and Brady hardly get touched. Maybe with a decent line Kellen will be better and not fearing for his life.
"It continues to amaze me how people, not just fans but more "sophisticated" media types, expect instant results from this quarterback. Look at JaMarcus Russell, the number 1 pick in the league, for comparison. It took a guy like Terry Bradshaw four or five years to become a proficient NFL quarterback. Now they give you four or five games if you're lucky".
Look at this years QB's starting for the first time. For every Jamarcus Russel and Kellen Clemens I'll give you a Derek Anderson and a Trent Edwards.
You can measure a QB with the experience of a Kellen Clemmons, even ex-Jet QB's like Browning Nagle and Glenn Foley, two more 'feisty' Qb's with strong arms.
Clemmons has shown absolutely nothing and to place your bets on him next year by simple throwing the receivers, McCariens, Coles, Washington, Smith, Baker and Jones under the bus when they dropped Clemmons passes and where only McCareins had stone hands with Pennington throwing to him shows why Mangini in submitting to mob rule and benching Pennington has closed the door on Pennington next year and will have to live his boy.
Let Mangini be judged on Clemmons next year.
Hopeless,
Have you seen our line? Neither QB has had time to throw, no holes for Jones. I think Long has to be the pick, and slide DBrick over to the right side. LT is one of the premium FA positions - teams don't let good ones hit the market - what FA are you talking about?
Based on above, I agree we go into next year with Clemens as the man. There are definitely valid concerns about him but 5-6 starts is not enough body of work to judge a QB.
Raj, note the lines Anderson and Edwards play behind - both got huge upgrades in the offseason.
DC,
You can draft linemen in the later rounds. Or better yet sign 2 to shore it up. The defense needs a pass rusher badly. Other teams have years before the Jets get to the Quarterback. Chris Long would do wonders for the defense. Ellis is not the same. Thomas is no where to be found on the defense.
Who knows with this team anyways. They have to be one of the worst franchises out there. How we put up with this crap is beyond me.
Trent only played in 7 games and the team dropped 32 passes that hit them right in the hands, so it isn't dilfer, it is the lack of recievers.....not to mention Dilfer was sacked 18 times in 7 games