Good start
By Ken Berger
So far, so good. Less than 24 hours old, and the blog has generated some intellectual commentary from fans who have done their homework. Congratulations on knowing your stuff.
One point that I failed to make yesterday came to mind as I read your responses to my favorable portrayal of the "new regime." As much as I like their approach, it's important that we don't lose sight of the following fact: While Tannenbaum has never been in charge before, he was a major part of the old regime. In fact, since Bradway commuted from the Jersey Shore and his management style was heavy on delegation, there are some who think that Tannenbaum had more power than he should've under the old organizational structure. I'm not knocking him; I'm simply inserting an important piece of perspective that I failed to make clear yesterday.
Having said that, this is how it works: If the Jets finally get straightened out on his watch, Tannenbaum will get loads of credit for being a far better GM than Bradway was. But to be fair, we have to remember that Mike played a significant role in the way things were run before. The key to evaluating him will be to take note of what changes he makes that he was powerless to make before. I think those will become evident in a very short period of time -- if they haven't already.
Before I lose track of the latest draft rumors that someone undoubtedly is concocting while I write this, I just wanted to briefly address some of your responses thus far:
I agree with James Cola’s assessment that moving back a few spots in the first round to take either Vernon Davis or D'Brickashaw Ferguson would give the Jets a pick they could use to move up a few spots from 29 to take a running back. Or, if they don’t take Ferguson with their first pick, I could then see them moving up from 29 to get Eric Winston, the OT from Miami.
But don’t lose sight of this scenario: If they in fact get a third-rounder to move down from No. 4, they would have THREE third-rounders – and tremendous flexibility. If a quarterback they like is still there in the second round – such as Kellen Clemens or Brodie Croyle – I could see them using the extra third to move up in the second round to get one of those QBs.
CMP mentions Mario Williams in his post. I think those of us in the media room will hear Mangini doing backflips down the hall upstairs if Williams is there at No. 4.
Ben Royben is hoping the Jets don’t take Marcedes Lewis, the TE from UCLA. Sorry, Ben, but the Jets have scouted Lewis extensively and view him as a good fallback at that position if they don’t get Davis. Don’t lose any sleep, though, because they will NOT take Lewis with their first pick.
Big Joe is big on D’Brickashaw with the fourth pick. The latest buzz I’m hearing is that the Jets might not be sold on him that high, but would gladly take him at No. 7 should the rumored trade with the Raiders take place. Big Joe and other members of the D’Brickashaw fan club might want to check out Joe Gergen’s feature on him in Wednesday’s Newsday (not on Big Joe, on D'Brickashaw).
Big Joe also advises the new regime to steer clear of tight ends. Somehow, Big Joe must have read the story I am about to write for tomorrow’s paper, which points out that since 1982, only three tight ends have been selected in the top 10 – Kyle Brady, Rickey Dudley, and Kellen Winslow Jr.
Mphtrilogy says A.J. Hawk fits the Mangini mold perfectly. I couldn’t agree more.
Lastly, I have consulted my trusty trade value chart to answer Matty Rod's question about what the Jets could get if they traded the 29th and 35th picks. The answer is intriguing: at least the 13th, and perhaps even the 12th pick. If they stay at No. 4 and get D'Brickashaw or Mario Williams, for instance, I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on who they would/should take if they made that trade for the 12th or 13th pick.
E-mail
Facebook
Digg
Delicious
Comments (17)
Imagine the DL if they could get Mario at 4 and Ngata at 12.
I'm glad the Jets don't seem to be interested in a
QB at #4. Since there is no clear cut "franchise"
player that's the smart move. What people fail to
realize is that if you miss with a QB you mess up
your team in a few ways:
- You screw up your salary cap by giving the player
a huge bonus
- You damage the psyche of your players because the
QB is a bust
- You bring down the wrath of the media on your
organization because you made the wrong pick
- And you discourage your fan base because the QB
is a bust
Ken,
I don't expect the Jets to take a QB in the first round either. I'm pretty sure that we'll hear a QB being taken in the second round, one of the "second tier" guys.
I DO think, however, that they need to take a RB early. An understudy to Curtis Martin is needed. Lets face it - C-Mart has one or two years left at marginal production. Someone has to be brought in that could watch and learn, and then in the second year, play half-time before Martin finally is in the background.
DeAngelo Williams seems like that guy to me. He's a bit on the short side, but the NFL is going that way, and I think he's got tremendous potential and could be one of the steals in the draft.
All projections have him going higher than our latter pick in the first round. Would you agree with moving up to get him? Do you agree that we need a RB, and if not, what's your reasoning?
If they call on "The Brick" with pick four (or if they do the trade, pick seven), I'm fine with that, as a long time Jets fan. But they have to address RB, DE, QB in this draft, and I think they can get the latter two in later rounds. But that RB has to be somewhere in the late first round. I'm also high on White from USC, despite his injury.
Great blog. Thanks for starting it.
Realistically, I don't think Jets can go wrong with Leinart, Ferguson, Williams or Hawk. I think all would be impact players. Don't sell Leinart short - he's proven that he has the moxie, and knows how to win. I think he has the intangibles that makes great quarterbacks. By the way - how strong was Joe Montana's arm?
If they can get a couple extra picks by moving down to 5 or 7, it would make sense if we could one of these four. I just don't want to get stuck with the TE - no matter how gifted he is. TE's don't win anything for you - they're complimentary pieces.
I want the Jets to be like the old Cowboys / current Patriots - trade down multiple times to accumulate picks, and then expect the "buckshot" method to weed out several starters and strong backups.
Look at the last five drafts. Of the top five picks in all of them, only Carson Palmer, Julius Peppers & LaDainian Tomlinson have proved worthy of getting picked that high. If you go to the top 10 picks in each, you might add Richard Seymour. That's four out of 50. Sure, there are some other solid players that were picked that high, but wouldn't you hope to land a sure-fire All Pro if you're getting one of the "top ten" players coming out of college?
The draft is a crap shoot, so why not take as many shots as possible? I say trade the #4 and try to stockpile as many late first, second and third round picks as possible. Mangini & Tannenbaum don't need to prove anything to me in the draft by making a headline pick. They need to prove something to me by putting together a quality team without headcases and without holes, kind of like Pittsburgh & New England have been doing.
I like what Ken said about the TE position in the draft since 1982. I haven't done the research, but I wouldn't be surprised to find out that there were more busts than superstars for the top picks at any positions over the years.
More picks = more players = a better shot at finding that diamond in the rough (see Tom Brady in the sixth, Steve Smith in the third, or Wayne Chrebet undrafted).
GlockNSoul - buckshot method - exactly!!!
The best case scenario for the Jets, (which is a long shot), is to have Vince Young fall into their lap, and possibly get the Raiders to jump ahead, and give up the 7th overall along with more picks(s). Now, if they are able to do this, and assuming that Bush, Williams, and Leinart are off the board, I think that they can still get Ferguson with the 7th pick. Here's why, the Packers are dying for defense, and based upon their intense pursuit of Lavar Arrington, they are a near-lock to take AJ Hawk at 5. The 49ers are heavily suspected to take Vernon Davis. I still wouldn't be overly surprised, if they are looking to trade out of that spot as well because, as much as the popularity of a freak tight end has grown with the emergence of Gates, Gonzalez, and Shockey, the 49ers have a very good pass catching tight end in Eric Johnson, and would be better served with multiple defensive picks. I would be overly surprised if Mike Nolan (a defensive coach), could stand dealing with the lack of talent on defense anymore. (possible partner is Detroit at #9). Plus, they are little threat to take Ferguson, being that they invested good money in a tackle last year (Jonas Jennings). Here's one more scenario that I, think is even less of a possibility, but very intriguing. Maybe the Jets select Young, knowing Owner Al Davis's infatuation with him. If the Jets have similar feelings for Jay Cutler, they can organize a trade with Oakland, topped off with other picks on top. This is exactly what the Chargers and Giants did 2 years ago. This way, if they are looking for a QB, and Cutler is their man (even though he doesn't have a Top 10 Grade, despite past hype), they can get equal value for the 4th pick in the Draft, and actually be able to put more quality rookies in training camp.
These are the far-fetched theories, but most likely, they will take either Ferguson, if he's around, and possibly Bobby Carpenter at 29, and the best RB available with the 2nd rounder.
I think that It Is pretty apparent that the Jets aren't enamored with anybody except Reggie Bush.
Ferguson Is said to maybe not even a starter this year. That's what Mel Kiper said. Anyway,
they should drop back and look linebacker(A.J. Hawk, of Manny Lawson).
What we do know, Is that they have so many needs, that they really can't screw It up!
Say the Jets trade their 29th and 35th picks. With the 12th or 13th pick, the Jets could go in a # of directions. The Jets need a big NT to fill the hole in the middle and take 2 blockers that Dewayne Robertson can't do. A good player available there would be NT Ngata or to a lesser degree DT Brunkley. They could get a great back in DeAngelo Williams but I would prefer to build up the DL. Even though they got Olenhoff from Pittburgh, he is more of a DE than a DT. Another intriguing pick could be one of the elite CBs that would be on the board at this spot. With the departure of Tye "Pass Interferance" Law, that leaves the Jets with...well, who? No one we have at the corner is very impressive. But you are sacrifcing two solid players for one player who probably is just slightly better. The Jets would really have to want a guy to trade up to the 12th or 13th pick.
It seems to me D'Brick has to be the way to go for the Jets. And I don't think there's enough certainty in what teams will do to trade up or down.
Right now, the Jets OTs are Adrian Jones and no one else who's starter material. I don't think the guy they just signed, Anthony Clement, is a starter at tackle, though he has started games in his career. And I don't think Cavka is considered a potnetial starter. I assume D'Brick would be starting wherever he goes from the beginning of the season. He's been a 4 year starter in a competitive conference, been considered the top college OT for two years.
I realize that, especially where the Jets are picking, you want the best player available more so than you draft for need. But D'Brick also is arguably the best player who will be available. I honestly can't predict who will be the best out of the names being mentioned among the top 7, but D'Brick may very well end up being the best.
All the other positions, the Jets have done something in the offseason to address. QB they traded for Ramsey, who's young - though I realize he only has 1 yr on his contract. DL they signed KVO who fits the 3-4, and I don't think it makes sense to draft Williams after already letting a proven pass rusher go. TE, they resigned Baker who played very well as a receiver until he got injured. LB they signed Kassel and Chatham, Barton returns from injury.
I don't think any of these moves preclude using a high pick at those positions, but OT is much more of a need. And you can't expect to be able to get someone who will start immediately at OT later - for example Khalif Barnes last year was 3rd tackle taken, I believe he only started after someone else got hurt, and by most accounts he struggled.
Drafting Davis is a fine idea--he's a gamebreaker, and the Jets have zero gamebreakers (that 4.39 40 is about the same time that Jason Miller ran last year, and he's about 60 pounds lighter and it's probably faster than Coles can run at this point in his career, given his toe problems). You can create all kinds of mismatches with this guy and you know that Schottenheimer is reminding Mag and Tan about all the great things that the Chargers did with TE focused offense the last couple of years.
But how can the Jets "trade down" to get him? The 'Niners apparently want him at #6--they have to draft him at 4. The only reason to "trade down" involving Davis would be to draft him at 4, holding the Niners hostage, in order to swap the 29 or 35 to the Niners for their 22--you'd pick up seven spots on the back end of the first round, would still get D'Brick at 6 (GB takes Hawk at 5) but you'd lose Davis--If you want Davis, you have to draft him at 4.
The only answer for the Jets Is A.J. Hawk at 4
Him and Vilma are Perfect for a 3-4. Eric Winstrom will probably be the best tackle in this class so we need him at 29. WE CAN'T TAKE VINCE YOUNG. He is not a NFL QB. All he does is line up in shotgun and runs remember The nfl defenses are made up of the fastest guy from college. Ramsey was a first round pick that did not fit with a Gibbs system. He will be the steal of free agency(sorry lavar)
If the Jets trade down from 4 to 7, they better get more than a 3rd round pick. If Oakland wants #4, then it'll obviously be for a QB. And if they want their "QB of the future" so badly, get them to pony up their 2nd rounder, or at least their 3rd rounder this year and a 2nd rounder next year.
Sorry, trading down 3 slots in the top 10 is worth mroe than a 3rd rounder. To me, getting the player you covet the most by just staying at 4 is better than getting a lesser player on your board and a 3rd rounder.
The Jets already have a nice combination of quanitity (7 picks in first 4 rounds) and quality (top pick in 2nd, 3rd, 4th round, 4th overall pick), they shouldn't try to get cute here. Unless the Raiders offer more than what they should according to the draft chart, I'd stay at 4.
Being a Jet fan since the mid-70's has never been easy, as this organization has been succumbed with lack of consistency in management, coaches, and player personnel. Not till the Bill Parcells era begin was there a true vision and goal. Not to join the band wagon, but I feel that this new administration has the same commitment.
I have reviewed the Jets draft history since the 1980's, and I was alarmed of the choices that were made. What is missing is insight and perhaps player development. I hope this draft turns its focus on player development for the future, and building a core of players for 3-5 years. What I would be disapointed with if they resort to giving a high draft choice for a another Mike Jolley.
This draft in my humble opinion is relatively deep, which is causing much confusion. Sure there are the top 10 names that everybody is mentioning. But if I were in the Jets draft room, my phone would be open to suggestions. The Jets need players, starting players before they think of depth. Therefore they should assemble as many draft choices as possible between 1-3 rounds.
By doing so they will not only have assembled a young nucleus of talent, which will cause much competition and a very good special teams.
This is the most important draft for the Jets since they had there 4 number 1 draft choices, which looking back produced very good players.
The Jets needs are many, but I would first and foremost build a defense. Getting as many young able bodies as possible. Drafting OL early would be a mistake, history has shown that OL players can be developed, and therefore 6-7 rounds would be agood place to draft. DL, LB, S, should be the Jets focus. The new coach who is defense oriented, has enough pressure on him. And therefore developing a good defense would be easier than developing an offense.
Just look at Pittsburgh and New England.
Anyway I would like to wish the Jets and its fans good luck.
Chances are that D'Brickashaw won't even be around at #4. Despite all the smoke and mirrors that you read about "this team loves that guy," and so on and so forth. The reality is that football is a business. I don't see how D'Brick makes it past New Orleans at #2. First of all, it would make little sense to draft 3 DE's with your first pick in a 5 year span (unless you're the Jets, Ellis, Abraham, and Thomas). But even further than that, the Saints have a young RT who was a rookie last year. And are currently without a pure left tackle. But here's where the business part comes in, the Saints have just invested a lot of money in Drew Brees. Also, they are going to stay with Deuce McAllister at RB. It would make little to no sense to not fortify your O-Line who protects your 2 most important offensive players, or 2 biggest investments. And both of these investments are coming off major injury.
Excellent commentary and opinion, Mr. Berger. Keep up the good work.
I have two questions I hope you will address:
1. In your 4/25 post, you discuss Mike Tannenbaum and how "the key to evaluating him will be to take note of what changes he makes that he was powerless to make before." You go on to say the changes "will become evident in a very short period of time -- if they haven't already"
It seems as if you've noticed some things already; care to share your thoughts here and now or are you saving the comments for a future column?
2. All indications point to the Jets playing some form of the 3-4 defense. However, they're personnel seems fit for the 4-3. Which current players fit well into the 3-4, if any? How does Mario Williams fit? AJ Hawk? A player may excel in one system, but not another.
Enjoy my friends:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZxNeFLuY98
Remember the pain!!
We finally have someone who seems to know what they'r doing...and who is this Berger guy anyway.