BY ADAM RONIS
Predicting wins from pitchers is very difficult. Sure, there are some pitchers that we can usually pencil in for 17-plus wins, but a lot of factors come into play such as run support, the backend of the bullpen and luck. That's why you shouldn't draft a pitcher based on win projections. The best barometer is to look for a guy who throws innings, gets strikeouts and has a good BB/K ratio. I illustrated this with Ian Snell a few entries back.
Lets look at another comparison:
Pitcher A: 216 1/3 IP, 101 BB, 177 K, 3.95 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Pitcher B: 195 IP, 63 BB, 183 K, 3.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
The statistics are pretty similar besides the walks, which led to a higher WHIP for Pitcher A. The difference in the win total was seven. It doesn't make sense based on the stats, but projecting wins isn't logical. Pitcher A is Carlos Zambrano, who won 18 games and Pitcher B is his teammate Rich Hill, who won 11 games.
Zambrano has been going around round 5 or 6 of mixed leagues, while Hill goes around 9 or 10.
Don't bypass a pitcher because he's on a bad team either and might not get wins, like a Matt Cain. The Giants righthander had a better season in 2007 than 2006 but had seven wins compared to 13 in 2006. The Giants lineup might resemble one you would see in a nursing home pickup game -- if they exist -- but his other numbers are solid and he has upside at only 23. Don't let wins determine whether you draft one pitcher over another.