BY ADAM RONIS
I was ready to put Albert Pujols number two in my rankings. I haven’t seen him go higher than fourth in early mock drafts and was appalled. Lately, I have seen him go as late as 14th. One down year, for Pujols at least, and you abandon him? Well, news just came out that has me worried.
Pujols has had a sore right elbow for a few years and he elected not to have offseason surgery because it would cause him to miss some of the upcoming season. Pujols is unable to straighten his right arm, but since he plays first base, doctors said surgery isn’t necessary.
Last season, Pujols hit .327, scored 99 runs, hit 32 home runs and had 103 RBIs and his BB/K ratio of 99/58 is as good as it gets.
That’s not first-round productivity, but just two years ago he hit .331 with 49 homers and 137 RBIs. The numbers for his first six seasons are insane. Before last season, he had four consecutive seasons of at least 41 home runs, 117 RBIs, 114 runs and a .330 average. Pujols is just 28 and should be entering his prime. Pujols, when healthy, should be in the top 10 in average, runs, home runs and RBIs, yet Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez often are being drafted before him. Reyes might be top 10 in two categories and Ramirez in possibly three. Steals are important, but I’d take Pujols over both.
However, the news of his elbow problem is a concern. I’d follow this very closely as spring training begins. One must all take into account is the Cardinals could be a bad team. What if he plays though the injury and the Cardinals are out of it and he elects to have surgery? This will have a huge impact on the draft. If he’s fine, pencil him in at No. 2 right after Alex Rodriguez. But right now, it's real tough to gauge since we don't have an idea of how serious this injury is. If I'm drafting now, I'd wait until late in the first round. Actually, I'd pass and pick a safer option.
Comments (5)
Adam,
You've touched on what is easily THE BIGGEST QUESTION FANTASY BASEBALL MANAGERS WILL HAVE TO ASK THEMSELVES IN 08'.
The news of manager Tony LaRussa applying the "albert rules" for Pujols this spring is enough reason to cause Pujol's ADP (average draft position, currently pick #7) to drop 18.7 percent from just 2 weeks ago where it was #5. To think a guy who has been compared to some of the greatest of all time to even go #5 is insane but who wants to draft a player who has "season ending elbow surgery" looming over his head? If you add in the fact that the Cards are one the only NL teams considered to not have a shot at the playoffs along with the nats, marlins, pirates and giants, we all have to be worried of him being shutdown completely...
LaRussa said on Thursday that the slugger will only participate on a limited basis in throwing drills and will see fewer at-bats than usual this spring. In addition, Pujols might get more days off during the season, especially Sundays before an off day to give him back-to-back breathers.
With money and pride on the line for Fantasy PLayers this year, Pujols is just to HIGH RISK!!!
Now, with allllllllll that said regarding Pujols, If he holds up just fine all year health wise or even gives you 145+ games on the year, whoever had the nutz to draft him will be allowed to say to his whole league "I told You SO, Punks"!!!
My take is , Id rather just play it safe and completely avoid him right now as my 1st rd pick...
Hey Adam ... here's a question for you. My league is a head to head league (you play every team in your league every week and generate a win/loss record) ... anyway, we're allowed 3 keepers each year (2 hitters + 1 pitcher).
My 2 hitters keepers were going to be Pujols + Wright. But I also have Texeira on my roster. With Albert's uncertainty, would you keep Tex + Wright instead and let someone else take the risk? Of course, if he doesn't get hurt or opt for surgery I'm making a bad trade-off (Tex is no slouch but Albert's "down" numbers last year were still better than Tex). Whatcha think?
While you're at it, I'm deciding between Verlander and Sabbathia for my pitcher keeper. Any thoughts there?
Brian,
Thanks for stopping by. The blog will be flooded with information the next few weeks as we launch.
i'd stick with Tex. Pujols is too much of a risk right now. The Cardinals will be bad and Pujols could opt for surgery midway through the season. It's difficult to pass on him, but Tex is a very good alternative. Let someone else take the chance. If he has a great year, so be it.
As for Sabathia and Verlander, I don't see a huge gap between them. Sabathia has improved each year in the key statistics. One of the best gauges of a pitcher is K/BB ratio and he had a 209/37 ratio last season which is as good as it gets.
Verlander has won 35 games in his first two years. Verlander's K/BB ratio of 183/67 is also solid. He is 25 and I expect him to throw more innings this season. The Tigers offense is extremely good, so the wins should be there.
I don't think you go wrong with either one, but if I had to choose, I'd go with Sabathia.
If you're interested in an auction league, email me.
Adam
Guess What?
SIR ALBERT aka Poodles, already has 3 bombs this spring :)
Do you think he's gonna make us all really sorry about sleeping on him???
It's still early in the spring. He definitely could, but it's a risk. I just worry the Cardinals will be bad and Pujols finally elects to repair the elbow. If I drafted today, I'd pass. I could change my mind next week, though.