NBA Insider with Ken Berger

Interesting analysis from the Wages of Wins blog (a favorite of mine) about lowering expectations in New York.

Check it out here.

Essentially, the point is that the Knicks aren't going to be much better this season than they were last season. The difference will be that expectations will be lower. This will be accomplished simply by replacing point guard Stephon Marbury with Chris Duhon. According to the site's wins produced statistic, the players are basically the same. But since Marbury is Starbury -- with all the false bravado that entails -- everyone thinks he's a good player. He's not any better than Duhon at producing wins, but since no one thinks Duhon is any more than an average player, no one will be disappointed when the Knicks don't win with him as the point guard.

I'll buy that, to an extent. But the post doesn't take into account two key factors: If, in fact, the Knicks toss Marbury (either through a trade or a buyout), the team could stand to win five or six more games simply due to the fact that Marbury isn't around to distract people and annoy his teammates. (That isn't statistical analysis, just my gut feeling, I'll admit.) Secondly, the analysis misses the larger plan to clear cap space and gain flexibility for future moves that will improve the team down the road. That's an important part of the plan that shouldn't be ignored simply because the on-court results will be similar this season.

Couple of interesting tidbits from the article: Only the Bobcats and Hawks have lost more games than the Knicks since 2004-05 (Isiah Thomas' first full season in New York), and the team's efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) of -6.9 was the franchise's worst mark since Wages of Wins began tracking the stat in 1973-74.

Also, WOW links to this analysis by Eric Doerr of DraftExpress.com, who predicts that Danilo Gallinari will be a fair approximation of Andrea Bargnani -- whom he states was the least productive player in the NBA last season with -5.7 wins produced.

So if I'm right about no Marbury meaning six more wins, and Doerr is right about Gallinari, the Knicks will win 23 games again this season. Enjoy!