Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

David Lennon reports on his blog that the Mets are working hard to acquire a reliever before the trade deadline. I think they'll find someone. Luis Ayala, as Jon Heyman reports? That would make sense, although if you look at his numbers, they haven't been very good this year.

Other last-minute predictions:

Jason Bay to Tampa Bay
Raul Ibanez to Toronto
The Red Sox get a reliever, but keep Manny.

Stay tuned...

A person in the loop just told me there was "nothing close" on a Manny trade to Florida, but that the Red Sox were still talking and seeing if there was a way to deal the eccentric slugger without sacrificing the season.

I'm betting against a Manny trade. Of course, I also thought the Diamondbacks were getting Mark Teixeira, and that the Yankees were set at catcher...

You know about the LaTroy Hawkins trade, right? An absolute miracle. I agree with Dennis. The Astros stink.

Good night. Thanks to this site for the photo.

For the second straight day, Mets scout Russ Bove is at Yankee Stadium. But the Orioles' asking price for closer George Sherrill has been prohibitive.

Meanwhile, a source informs me that at least one Mets scout, and possibly more, attended last night's Mariners-Rangers game in Texas. We know that the Mets like Raul Ibanez.

Given the Mets' desire for a high-end reliever, is there any chance the M's would dangle J.J. Putz? Putz is having a terrible year, including a bad outing last night. He's signed for $5 million next year with an $8.6 million team option (and $1 million buyout) for 2010.

The Rangers, meanwhile, have Marlon Byrd, a serviceable, righty-hitting outfielder who can play all three positions.

The Mets had a scout at last night's Orioles-Yankees game at Yankee Stadium, presumably to watch Baltimore closer George Sherrill nearly blow a four-run lead in the ninth inning. They've also expressed an interest Oakland's Huston Street, who has appeared diminished this year.

The next tier of available relievers _ Scott Downs, Cla Meredith, Jack Taschner and David Weathers, just to cite a few from Jon Heyman's list (#19) _ is underwhelming, to say the least.

The term "reliable reliever" is largely an oxymoron, but overall, the Mets' bullpen hasn't been very good. Their 4.10 bullpen ERA ranks ninth in the National League. Among contenders, only the Cardinals are worse, as you can see here. Duaner Sanchez, pictured above, has lost his setup role, although Aaron Heilman filled in nicely last night.

So what would you do, Mets fans? I'd go for one of those second-tier guys if it didn't cost me any significant prospects. But if it proves to be a sellers' market, then I'd stay internal and try to get Mets minor-leaguers like Eddie Kunz and Robert Parnell involved.

Given Omar Minaya's personality and history, you'd bet on him making a trade for both a reliever and an outfielder. Yet Omar realizes that he can't keep gutting the farm system. We'll see which impulse wins, in the inevitable tug-of-war inside his brain.

The Mark Teixeira trade has considerably increased the degree of difficulty for the Red Sox to trade Manny. After all, if they had found a taker for Manny, then they could have made a run at Teixeira and asked Kevin Youkilis to please be a trooper and move from first base to leftfield for the duration of this season.

Nevertheless, the Sawx are still working the phones, trying to find an interested party. The Dodgers are interested, but as one person in the loop said, it's tough to complete a trade of this caliber done with them because their organization is such a mess. Owner Frank McCourt and GM Ned Colletti appear to have different agendas at times.

The Mets are still not displaying any level of interest in Manny, a source reiterated. But the Mets do have a scout, Russ Bove, here at Yankee Stadium - presumably to watch Orioles closer George Sherrill.

The price for Sherrill remains prohibitive.

At this point, I'm going to say that Teixeira's most logical landing spot is Arizona.

The Diamondbacks are offering Chad Tracy and a couple of second-tier prospects to Atlanta for Teixeira, a source confirmed. The Braves aren't accepting that, as they want one of Arizona's young pitchers prospects like Max Scherzer.

Tracy's numbers aren't great, but that's because he's missed time the last two seasons with a significant right knee injury that he got surgically repaired. He's signed for $4.75 million next year and has a $7 million team option for 2010 - very reasonable dollars, if he can get back to somewhere between his 2005 and 2006 production.

The Angels are reportedly interested in Teixeira. It would be very out of character for them to give up Casey Kotchman for a rental. Officials from other clubs are skeptical whether the Angels would actually go through with that.

In other trade news...

From 2000 through 2004, the Yankees fell into this nasty habit in which they absolutely, positively HAD to import big-name help from the outside. The players grew accustomed to it. Ownership mandated it. The fan base and the media fell in line.

Brian Cashman set out to change that, when he gained full power in 2005, and he largely succeeded. Aaron Small, who had been signed to a minor-league deal the prior offseason, was the savior that year, along with Shawn Chacon, whom the Yankees picked up in a low-profile July trade. In 2006, minor-league system product Melky Cabrera plugged a major hole before Cashman waited out the Phillies for Bobby Abreu.

And last year, instead of overpaying for Eric Gagne, the Yankees promoted a fellow named Joba Chamberlain to set up for Mariano Rivera. That worked out all right.

That lesson needs to be retained as we enter the final days of non-waivers trade discussions, and the Mariners hold firm on their asking price for Jarrod Washburn.

Yes, the Yankees need some help in their starting rotation. Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner are established mediocrities, and if you really want to be paranoid, you can worry about Mike Mussina's stinker last night.

But if I were Brian Cashman, I just wouldn't take Washburn, not under any circumstances. Not with that $10.35 million salary looming next year. He has been a league-average pitcher since he went to the Mariners in 2006, and really, five out of the last six seasons. Look at his stats.

With Mussina and Andy Pettitte now likely to be back next year, along with Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain, I want to leave room for Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy in the rotation.

No, I'd try to get by this year with some combination of Ponson, Rasner, Hughes, Kennedy, Alfredo Aceves and, should he show enough in his Aug. 5 throwing session, Freddy Garcia. That way, you're not overpaying _ and not clogging up your roster for next year _ for a guy who isn't that good in the first place.

Over on the Mets' side, they have the same issue with their corner outfielders. Fernando Tatis, pictured above, has hit remarkably well, so much so that Jerry Manuel committed to him yesterday as his everyday leftfielder.

If the Mariners drop their price on Raul Ibanez, then I'd trade for him, because Ibanez is a free agent at season's end. But if he doesn't? Then you ride Tatis' good vibes. I'd sign Kenny Lofton, but the Mets don't seem inclined to do that.

The last few days before the trade deadline are always fascinating. Last-minute scenarios arise that you didn't see coming. I'll try to check in here as often as I can, as new info pours in.