Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

No arbitration for Bobby Abreu or Andy Pettitte

2008-12-01T23:38:11Z

Surprising development, as the Yankees declined today to offer arbitration to Bobby Abreu. That they passed on Andy Pettitte and everyone else was less surprising.

Yankees GM Brian Cashman, in a statement released by the team, said: "The determination we made today was to make sure that we control what amount we’d be spending, at least in the event that we’re fortunate enough to bring those players back. We did not want to put ourselves in the position of having that determined by a third party without knowing what the figure would be."

It's interesting, and it shows that even the Yankees aren't immune to this bad economy. Signing Abreu to a one-year deal for $17 million or $18 million _ what Abreu probably would have gotten, had he accepted arbitration _ is an appealing option for a big-market team like the Yankees. Unless you simply don't want to overspend like that.

Cashman said, "We’ll still stay engaged with the entire free-agent market, including those two players," referring to Abreu and Pettitte. But that's it for Abreu, who figures to get at least a two-year deal from someone, even in this difficult offseason for players.

The Yankees were concerned that Abreu would accept, and while three months ago, that would've been fine, now, given what has gone down in our country, that would've been daunting to their overall budget. They're paying a heavy price for such concern. By not offering arbitration, they gave up two draft picks they would've received if Abreu had signed elsewhere. Given the likelihood that they'll sacrifice their own picks by signing Type A free agents who HAVE been offered arbitration by their respective teams, the Yankees will be left with just two picks (the first- and second-round picks they recouped by not signing their 2008 selections) in the first two rounds in '09, including the sandwich round.

Pettitte, meanwhile, is going to have to take a paycut wherever he goes, and frankly, if he signs with another team for, say, $13 million instead of the Yankees' $11 million, Pettitte will take a hit to his reputation.

MLB.com is reporting that Mike Hampton and the Astros have agreed to a reunion. Meh. So much for the Astros building on what they did in 2008.

Meanwhile, speaking of arbitration offers that could be accepted, that notion has Ben Sheets' name written all over it. Coming off an excellent season that was marred by arm problems at the end, Sheets could do very well on a one-year deal with the Brewers, who would surely feel much better about CC Sabathia's departure if they still have Sheets.

I read in Watchdog about Dr. Z., and here's wishing him well. I never actually met Paul Zimmerman, the legendary Sports Illustrated NFL writer who suffered two strokes. But he nevertheless gave me one of my biggest professional laughs.

I was covering Super Bowl XXXV for The Bergen Record, and I was interviewing, I think, the secondary coach for the Baltimore Ravens. Can't remember his name. It was myself, Dr. Z. and some radio foof from Baltimore seated around a table. A "foof" is essentially an unintelligent windbag.

The foof asked a number of questions of the coach, moving his mircophone to and fro as he and the coach partook in the dialogue. I, getting impatient, asked the coach some questions concerning my story (I think I was writing about Chris McAlister and some other highly regarded defensive back), and the foof stuck his mike in front of my face, to record my questions. I didn't care enough to fight it, plus, as a baseball writer in football territory, I wasn't sure of the protocol.

Then the foof shifted the mike to Dr. Z., an offer to let Dr. Z. ask his questions. Dr. Z. growled, "Get that ___ microphone out of my face!"

Here's to you unwittingly providing more laughs to other media folks you'll never meet, Dr. Z.

And finally, Newsday's dot-com bigwig Mark LaMonica (who avoided a serious car accident last night) released pageview data from November today, and we set a personal record here, beating our old record by over 25 percent.. So thanks to all of you for stopping by, and if you'd please continue to do so, that would be swell.

Thanks to the IMDb for the photo.

Your 2009 Hall of Fame ballot

2008-12-01T18:56:14Z

Debate away:

Harold Baines
Jay Bell
Bert Blyleven
David Cone
Andre Dawson
Ron Gant
Mark Grace
Rickey Henderson
Tommy John
Don Mattingly
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Jesse Orosco
Dave Parker
Dan Plesac
Tim Raines
Jim Rice
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell
Greg Vaughn
Mo Vaughn
Matt Williams.

I haven't received my ballot yet. When I fill it out, closer to the end of the month, I'll share it with you.

Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettitte, Derek Lowe, Jason Varitek and Jim Rice

2008-12-01T05:01:57Z

Today is an important day in the offseason that could spur some teams to action. Once we know which free agents have been offered arbitration, teams will know for sure whether they'll need to surrender draft picks in return for signing a free agent. This won't have an impact, however, on the biggest cases; there's no mystery, for instance, concerning whether Milwaukee will offer arbitration to CC Sabathia. That will happen.

For our local clubs, Bobby Abreu and Oliver Perez will get offered arbitration, and probably no one else. It doesn't make sense for the Yankees to offer it to Andy Pettitte, since he'd accept it quickly and get himself a raise.

I wouldn't get too worked up over the likelihood of the Dodgers signing Pettitte. Yes, Pettitte and Joe Torre have an excellent relationship. But the Dodgers aren't going to match Pettitte's $16 million salary of 2008, either. And all things being equal _ if he has to take a pay cut regardless of where he goes, in other words _ Pettitte wants to pitch for the Yankees.

Perez will turn down the Mets' arbitration offer. He's going to get more, in dollars and years, on the open market.

The Abreu case is slightly more interesting. He'd probably make $18 million or so for 2009 through arbitration, but it would be a one-year deal. Through free agency, he could get, say, a three-year, $33-million deal. He'll probably go for the longer term and the larger overall package. But if, for some reason, he wanted to make a huge score at a workplace he has enjoyed, then he could accept the Yankees' offer, and the team would be thrilled.

What would the team do then, with corner options in Abreu, Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher? Probably want to keep Nady for his righty bat, right? So do you consider trading Damon? He'd be missed - he's an asset on both sides of the ball when he plays leftfield, and his good nature helps the clubhouse _ but he could probably bring back a nice haul of kids in return, as long as the Yankees helped out with the $13 million he's owed for '09.

This is a hypothetical we'll probably never have to actually contemplate. But a fun question to ponder nonetheless.

With only Abreu likely to be offered arbitration, meanwhile, what does the Yankees' 2009 amateur draft look like?

They're probably going to sacrifice their own first-rounder by signing a Type A free agent who has been offered arbitration, whether it's Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, Mark Texieira or Manny Ramirez. Since they will very likely sign two such free agents, there goes their second-round pick, as well.

The good news for Yankees fans is that the team carries over both its first-round and second-round picks from 2008, as they failed to come to terms with both Gerritt Cole and Scott Bittle. And if Abreu does sign elsewhere, the Yankees will get two more picks _ one in the sandwich round between the first and second rounds, and the other dependent on the team that signs Abreu (and if that team signs any other free agents who are ranked higher than Abreu in Elias' system).

Good piece here by Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Nick interviewed Lowe, who expressed a desire to return to the Red Sox. With free agents in an instance like this, you always wonder whether there's an ulterior motive here. Is Lowe trying to fire up the Yankees to bid higher for him, to keep him away from the Red Sox? Or does he just really want to come back to Boston, and he hopes his words will fire up Red Sox Nation, thereby placing pressure on Theo Epstein to make this happen?

I'm curious to see if the Red Sox actually offer arbitration to Jason Varitek, as Ian Browne's story here suggests. For if that happens, I think Varitek would accept even quicker than Pettitte. He's not matching his $9 million salary from '08 on the open market, not coming off a .672 OPS.

Just to keep the Hall of Fame debate embers burning, Cafardo, further down in his Sunday notes column, details the argument why Jim Rice should be a Hall of Famer. It's presented by longtime Red Sox executive Dick Bresciani, who is about as nice a man as you'll meet.

But the argument, as you'll see if you read, is sort of dated. It relies heavily on MVP balloting, runs, hits and RBI.

It reminded me of a group interview conducted in spring training 1999 with Don Zimmer, who was filling in as Yankees manager while Joe Torre was being treated for prostate cancer.

Someone asked Zim if that lineup _ remember, C Jorge Posada, 1B Tino Martinez, 2B Chuck Knoblauch, 3B Scott Brosius, SS Derek Jeter, LF Ricky Ledee/Shane Spencer, CF Bernie Williams, RF Paul O'Neill and DH Chili Davis/Darryl Strawberry _ would be the best lineup he'd ever written on a lineup card.

Zim's eyes bulged, and he took on a combative tone, as he would do occasionally if you so much as asked him the time.

"I don't know about that," he said. "I had a team with Jim Rice. Carlton Fisk. Fred Lynn. Carl Yastrzemski. Rick Burelson. Butch Hobson. Dwight Evans. Jerry Remy. George Scott. That was a pretty good lineup."*

Indeed, it was. Of course I'm not saying that Rice stunk. He was very, very good. But certainly, it must be acknowledged that his counting stats, particularly his runs and RBI, were aided by the lineup in which he played. For the 14 years of Rice's prime, 1975 through 1988, the Red Sox posted an OPS+ of over 100 _ they were above league average, in other words _ in 12 of those seasons. In the two seasons which they didn't, 1982 and 1983, they were at 99, one tick below average.

Now, to be fair, Rice helped those teams put up such good offensive numbers. But he had help.

*Posnanski-esque interruption here. First, please don't scrutinize the order in which Zim listed those players, because that's almost 10 years ago and I probably didn't get the order exactly right. Second, I like Zimmer; he can be a barrel of laughs. Catch him at the wrong moment, however...

To go completely off topic, I've started watching NFL action regularly this year, after about a 16-year break. Am I the only person who thinks that Darryl Johnston sounds like Dane Cook?

Self-promotion alert: I'll be on XM 175 today at 2:05 with Charlie Steiner.

Sunday reading

2008-11-30T12:32:58Z

Here is my Sunday Insider, discussing the Mets' catching situation. They expressed an interest in Texas' Gerald Laird earlier this offseason _ they also asked about Laird last offseason _ but they have bigger problems. The state of catching throughout the game is so poor that the Mets could do worse than Ramon Castro and Brian Schneider.

Big assist to JE for providing the defensive measure to which I referred. Thanks, JE.

Here is the 7th-Inning Stretch.

Love this story, displaying how hard New York City officials fought to get a luxury suite at the new Yankee Stadium. This is the perfect example of why the notion of publicly-funded ballparks should disgust all of us.

My favorite part is where Yankees COO Lonn Trost, turning down the city officials' request, finishes an e-mail with the colorful statement, "...and as they say in Brooklyn, 'No nothin'.'"

I think that, from now on, when the Yankees hold the opponent to a 1-2-3 half-inning, Michael Kay on the TV side and John Sterling on the radio side should say, "No runs, no hits, no errors and, as they say in Brooklyn, 'No nothin'.'"

Blog commenter Howard, a kid at heart, has started this site as a vehicle to reconnect with people from your youth - your elementary school, to be specific. It's worth a look.

It's been a slow Hot Stove weekend _ as far as we know, at least. Should pick up this coming week. In the meantime, enjoy the day.

Thanks to this site for the photo.

Comment Winter Olympics

2008-11-29T12:00:43Z

Turned out to be a pretty quiet week, and then I missed my usual Friday morning slot for this feature, thanks to a rough Thursday night that had nothing to do with pigging out and everything to do with 5-year-olds' immune systems. Anyhow, the little guy is doing better, and here, belatedly, are our best comments of the week:

The bronze goes to Gerry, regarding the "Comment Submission Error" problem that just isn't going away:

The Glauber / Sandy fix is flawed...maybe Obama will fix this.

The silver goes to Andy, who checked in on my second annual "Overrated and Over-hated" list.

And you're spot on with Male Pattern Baldness. Totally overrated. I really thought I'd gain more respect with my follically-challenged look, but so far? No dice.

And the gold goes to Tim N., who railed against the "Mets have no leadership" complaint:

The more baseball I watch (thirtyCOUGH years now), the more I think this "clutch" and "late and close" stuff is just nonsense. ...How come no one is looking at Ryan Howard's or Jimmy Rollins' "late and close" numbers for '08? Is it because their team won?

No one ever talked about Bernie Williams' or Paul O'Neill's clutch splits, because nine times out of ten, someone on that team came up with the big hit in the big spot.

It does seem like an annual rite of winter that we take the biggest stars on the most disappointing teams and bang out some number that says, "He doesn't hit when the game counts." The game counts for nine innings.

Self-promotion alert: I will be on WFAN at 11:05 this morning with Ed Coleman. And tomorrow night at 10:30, on Channel 5 (Fox), I'll be on "Sports Extra" with Duke Castiglione.

Thanks to this site and this site for the accompanying art.

Thanksgiving reading - and a potential solution to our "Comment Submission Error" problem

2008-11-27T13:09:20Z

Here is the story I wrote for today's Newsday, discussing the competition to acquire CC Sabathia. I think Angels owner Arte Moreno, above, is one of the most interesting characters in this saga. He is not to be taken lightly, by the Yankees or anyone else.

More important, Newsday teammate Bob Glauber just might have come up with the solution for the dreaded "Comment Submission Error." The next time you want to make a comment, press "Control" as you're hitting "Post." It worked for me.

Have a great day.

UPDATE, 8;41 p.m.: First of all, Sandy is taking credit for this new cure to the Comment Submission Error. But second of all, now it isn't working for me. The most success I've had is when I hit refresh so that I get a new code number.

I can't tell you how much I appreciate all of your determination to post your comments. I'm not sure what's worse - trying to post a comment here, or being a Lions fan.

UPDATE, Friday, 9:08 a.m. The Comment Winter Olympics have been postponed this morning due to an under-the-weather child. I hope to have it up tomorrow morning.

Overrated and over-hated 2008

2008-11-26T05:26:01Z

Last year, I posted this for fun, and I received a tidal wave of positive feedback on it. In other words, Bob Klapisch told me that he sort of liked it.

So let's do it again: The second annual list of baseball's overrated and over-hated. Let's face it, far too often, our world resorts to black-and-white evaluations of issues, people and concepts. Here, we're all about the gray. So let's cast judgment on who gets overrated, who gets over-hated and, occasionally, who gets both, or neither:

Billy Beane: Over-hated
Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright: A big bowl of over-hated
Blogs: Over-hated
Robinson Cano: Over-hated
Brian Cashman: Over-hated
Luis Castillo: Neither, but most certainly overpaid
Joba Chamberlain: Overrated as a reliever, over-hated as a starter and, most important, over the limit. May he learn his lesson.
Citigroup: Out of their minds, for not reconsidering this.
Roger Clemens: Both
Carlos Delgado: Neither
The Dolans: Over-hated, of course!
Facebook: Over-hated
Joe Girardi: Overrated
HDTV: Overrated
Ryan Howard: Overrated
Phil Hughes: Over-hated
Innings counts: Good Lord, over-hated
Derek Jeter: Overrated
Bowie Kuhn: Overrated
Luck: Over-hated
Male pattern baldness: Overrated
Jerry Manuel: Neither.
Brian McNamee: Over-hated
Gene Michael: Overrated
Mike and the Mad Dog: Over-hated
Mike: Overrated
The Mad Dog: Overrated
Marvin Miller: Over-hated
Omar Minaya: Over-hated
George Mitchell: Profoundly overrated
Perception: Overrated
Andy Pettitte: Over-hated
Pitch counts: See innings counts
Manny Ramirez: Over-hated
Willie Randolph: Overrated
Reality: Over-hated
Alex Rodriguez: Over-hated, but he's got to quit it with the public lifestyle. With such drama, he keeps on pushing my love over the borderline.
Francisco Rodriguez: Overrated
Rich Rodriguez: Overrated
Johan Santana: Neither.
Bud Selig: Both
Setup men: Overrated (although, poor Aaron Heilman is over-hated)
John Stearns: Both, undoubtedly. He nearly took down this blog single-handedly!
Hal Steinbrenner: Neither
Hank Steinbrenner: Overrated
Joe Torre: Both
The U.S. two-party political system: Overrated
The Wilpons: Neither

As always, I am thankful for these needle-moving issues, and for those of you who check in here on them. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your loved ones. And if you don't want to blow me off this weekend, I'll be checking in periodically.

Onto the news of the day...

Here is the story I wrote about the Yankees. I think there's a much better chance that CC Sabathia signs with the Angels than Pettitte signs with the Dodgers. I wouldn't doubt Angels owner Arte Moreno. He's all about being aggressive. If the Angels sign Sabathia, they could trade one of their young pitchers for hitting help like Colorado's Garrett Atkins, Milwaukee's Prince Fielder, Houston's Carlos Lee, Detroit's Magglio Ordonez or shoot - how about Delgado?

One Pettitte development: Friends say he really doesn't want to return to his hometown Astros. He's still upset with owner Drayton McLane and president Tal Smith for how things went down two years ago, when he returned to the Yankees.

Here is the Mets story I wrote. When it comes to rebuilding their bullpen, the Mets really are in an enviable position. They are the lead dog in the race for Brian Fuentes and K-Rod; neither pitcher will make a move without consulting the Mets. And given our horrible economy, you've got to think that the Rockies will eventually move Huston Street, who's set to make something like $4 million in 2009. Colorado already has the much more reasonably priced (and, admittedly, not as good) Manny Corpas for the back of its bullpen.

Perception and reality with Mike Mussina and Jose Reyes

2008-11-25T13:34:55Z

The Hot Stove League has been progressing like a lazy, dog-dangling day, as Homer put it in this episode. Perhaps that could change quickly if the Angels move on CC Sabathia, as this Los Angeles Times report today suggests.

If the Yankees really do whiff on their goal to upgrade their starting rotation, they are discussing alternative plans.

In the meantime, it interests me how, even in the winter months, we debate players and their values. And we match our perceptions of them against the reality of the statistics.

Let's start with Mike Mussina, since he and his Hall of Fame candidacy remains a hot topic. I opened up my competing newspaper this morning to discover a full-page advertisement from the Yankees, saluting Mussina. The ad read, in part, "During his tenure with the Yankees, no other American League pitcher recorded as many wins as Moose."

If that had been out there already, then I missed it. But the Elias Sports Bureau confirmed it. From 2001 through 2008, only Roy Oswalt (129) had more victories than Mussina's 123. Mark Buehrle and Roy Halladay were next, with 118.

Now, as we know, there are far better gauges than wins to determine a pitcher's success. So I figured, let's check on strikeouts and innings pitched in the AL over the same period. It's a very convenient period to examine, since 2001 marked the return of the unbalanced schedule to both leagues. With the Yankees, Mussina routinely had to face the Red Sox four-to-six times per season.

Here's what the great Bob Waterman at Elias gave us:

AL Strikeout Leaders, 2001-08
1. Johan Santana 1,317
2. Mike Mussina 1,278

AL Innings Pitched Leaders, 2001-08
1. Mark Buehrle 1,796.1
2. Roy Halladay 1,576.2
3. Jon Garland 1,555.2
4. Mike Mussina 1,553

It's interesting, particularly since you could argue that Mussina's "prime" ended after his 2003 season. He turned 35 that December and was pretty up-and-down from 2004 until his retirement.

Of course, this list is a bit contrived in that pitchers so often change leagues now. If Sabathia had stayed with Cleveland through the end of the 2008 season, he would've surpassed Mussina in both strikeouts and innings pitched. Mussina placed eighth overall in strikeouts and 13th in innings pitched over the last eight years, although it really must be stressed how much easier it is to pitch in the NL.

What does this say about Mussina's Hall of Fame candidacy? To me, it just magnifies how very good - and yes, often great - he was for a very long time. But again, I'd say it's a pretty decent chance that, by the time Mussina gets on the ballot in 2014, this won't even be the BBWAA's decision.

One other note on Mussina: He picked up 18 wins in 2002, one more than he did in 2001, despite his ERA shooting up from 3.15 to 4.05. If you look at his game logs from '02, you'll see that he pitched on three days' rest on May 21, and that he started getting some really good run support the rest of the way.

He pitched on three days' rest because David Wells' back acted up at the last minute; Mussina took one for the team, in other words. And if you look at Wells' game logs that year, you'll see that, when he resumed pitching on May 25, he received generally poor run support for about two months.

So what did Wells do? Rather than thanking Mussina for picking him up, he moaned about how he lost his "slot" when the Yankees hit big. Gosh, I miss Boomer.

Now, onto Jose Reyes. I can't tell you how many times I've heard, "He's not the guy you want up in a big spot."

So I crunched some numbers, and here's what we have. I included career numbers and then 2007 and 2008 breakdowns, since his '07 is when he started to get this reputation. All numbers are OBP/SLG.

Reyes/ career OPS is .336/.436/.772. In 2007, he OPSed .354/421/.775. In 2008, he OPSed .358/.475/.833.

September/October (regular season): Career, .307/.378/.685. 2007, .279/.333/.612. 2008, .314/.402/.716.

Runners in scoring position: Career, .366./.475/.841. 2007, .374/.392/.766. 2008, .382/.462/.844.

2 outs, RISP: Career, .387/.524/.911. 2007, .352/.333/.685. 2008, .448/.618/1.082.

Late & Close: Career, .347/.384/.731. 2007, .409.338/.747. 2008, .340.367/.707.

As a reminder, Late & Close are plate appearances in the seventh or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.

Those late & close numbers certainly help the haters' cause, as do the September/October figures of the last two years. This year, he rebounded with runners in scoring position, both with two outs and less than two outs.

It's interesting. I'll try to ask Reyes and Howard Johnson in spring training.

Thanks to this site for the photo.

Let's catch up with the biggest names

2008-11-24T13:49:29Z

If you're disappointed by the lack of offseason action so far, hang in there. It could be one more slow week before things pick up.

Then again, as I wrote today, the always aggressive Angels could push some transactions into happening this week.

So as we kick off this holiday-shortened week, let's get a feel for where the big names stand. We'll put these in the order that I feel like ordering them:

1. CC Sabathia. I can't recall a case quite like this one, when everyone in the free world knows that the guy would rather NOT pitch for the team that has dramatically outbid all other suitors. Yes, Mike Mussina never thought he'd pitch for the Yankees, either, but Mussina at least was aiming to play in the Yankees' time zone. He thought he'd wind up in Cleveland.

Well, now that I think about it some more, maybe Carlos Beltran signing with the Mets represents a decent comparison...

Forget about Hal Steinbrenner's phony deadline. The indications are that Sabathia himself doesn't want to drag this out too long. He has to be disappointed that none of the West Coast teams have stepped up.

The hunch here is that, next week, Sabathia tells the Yankees all right - for just a little more money than the current offer. I think it could even happen this week, as CC enjoys Thanksgiving in Northern California.

2. Mark Teixeira. There is precedent for a Scott Boras client signing early in the free-agent process. Ten years ago, Bernie Williams re-signed with the Yankees on Thanksgiving Eve. That happened because Bernie took charge of his destiny, insisting on a sit-down meeting with the Yankees brass where he passionately told George Steinbrenner how much he wanted to remain with the organization.

(Of course, the Yankees ultimately re-signed Bernie only because Albert Belle backed out of a verbal agreement and signed with Baltimore instead. Luck, my friends, luck - a huge role in everything in life.)

Would Teixeira be as forceful in getting a deal done with the Angels, with whom he was clearly happy? The one indication to the positive is that, at the GMs' meetings earlier this month, Boras did speak well of Teixeira's experience with the Angels. Usually, Boras won't concede even that much.

3. AJ Burnett. Burnett's agent Darek Braunecker told me on Friday night that his client will have a five-year offer to sign, if that's what he wants. But it ain't coming from the Blue Jays, as Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi told me, and I don't think the Yankees will go there, not as long as they sign Sabathia. I don't see the Red Sox committing that, either.

The Orioles? More likely, if president Andy MacPhail yields to his owner Peter Angelos. Burnett does make his offseason home in Maryland.

In any case, I still contend that Burnett's free agency fascinates me the most. I think many of the Yankees players would be more excited about adding Burnett than adding Sabathia. That's how good Burnett can be when he's on his game.

BTW, I get the sense that many Yankees players are on board with prioritizing pitching over the offense. There's hope that Robinson Cano will be more like his 2006 and 2007 self _ Cano apparently has told teammates he's going to be in great shape when spring training opens _ and there's something to be said for having three players (Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Xavier Nady) in their walk years. Baseball Prospects conducted a study a few years ago that showed players do tend to perform better when they're playing for a new contract.

4. Derek Lowe. This one figures to take forever, because Lowe is a Boras guy and because it behooves Lowe, anyway, to wait until Sabathia and Burnett decide. He wants to go back to the East Coast; he's said as much publicly. If you're a Mets fan, hope that the Yankees get Sabathia and Burnett so that they'll lose interest in Lowe.

5. Manny Ramirez. One Yankees official told me, earlier this offseason, that they were more likely to get Manny than Teixeira. That looks prescient now. If Manny's price drops enough - I don't know, let's say the two years and $45 million that the Dodgers offered him - the Yankees would have to take him, wouldn't they?

But I still think the Dodgers, who have internally decided that they can't afford Sabathia, will find a way to bring back Manny. They need to build on what they accomplished in 2008, and Manny was a gargantuan part of that, obviously. Joe Torre will be earning that big paycheck with Manny around.

6. Andy Pettitte. If he's truly just sitting back at home, at peace with what the Yankees are doing, then Pettitte has changed. Remember, he left the Yankees the first time because he felt like they didn't show him enough love. He left the Astros two years ago because he felt like they didn't show him enough love. When I write "love," I mean "love and money," but not only "money." Pettitte likes to be appreciated for his work ethic.

I can understand why the Yankees want Pettitte to take a pay cut. At the same time, let's not undervalue too much what Pettitte did in 2008. He struck out more batters (158) in fewer innings (204) than he pitched in 2007 (141 strikeouts, 215 1/3 innings). His groundball percentage (49.8 percent) in '08 was higher than it was in '07 (47.8 percent). With defensive upgrades at first base (Nick Swisher over Jason Giambi) at second (motivated Cano over satisfied Cano), he could pitch the same and get better results.

7. Rafael Furcal. Ken Rosenthal reports that the Giants and A's are most involved with the shortstop, who put up phenomenal numbers in an injury-shortened 2008 with the Dodgers. If the Braves wind up trading their shortstop Yunel Escobar for Jake Peavy, then Atlanta could get involved here, too.

8. Jake Peavy. Speaking of which - sorry, baileywalk. I still don't see Peavy joining the Yankees. It makes all the sense in the world for the Braves and Padres to finish this deal. The Braves can't afford to duel the Yankees for Burnett, and they don't have the Jays' homefield advantage there. The Dodgers could become more involved due to Chad Billingsley's injury, although you'd think the Padres would exact a higher price from the Dodgers since they play in the same division.

9. Orlando Hudson. His representatives have to be disappointed that, at this point, the Yankees and Mets aren't serious suitors. Cano is very likely staying, and Luis Castillo's contrition (scroll down three items) makes his return more palatable. Jon Heyman reported the Indians as a suitor.

10. Raul Ibanez. Mets fans, I know you're not very excited about this one, but the Mets themselves are. They see a needed energy boost and some much-needed production after the cleanup slot. That said, the competition for Ibanez's services looks to be fierce, with the Phillies, Dodgers and Royals among the most interested suitors.

I thought this was interesting: Did you know that, when Robert F. Kennedy was asssassinated, Jackie Robinson was considered as Kennedy's replacement as a U.S. Senator from New York?

Have a great day.

Sunday reading

2008-11-23T13:55:04Z

Here is my Sunday Insider, which discusses how the Yankees want to regain the psychological advantage that comes with having an elite starting rotation.

Here is the Seventh-Inning Stretch.

Here is a story about Hideki Matsui not participating in the 2009 World Baseball Classic.

Here is a good story by Neil Best about Mike Francesa, which divulges that Chris Russo wanted to replace Don Imus as WFAN's morning-drive person.

Thanks to the IMDb for the photo. Have a great day.

Saturday reading

2008-11-22T14:05:16Z

Here is my update on A.J. Burnett. So far, the Yankees haven't expressed an inclination to commit five years to Burnett. I'd bet that changes only if CC Sabathia signs elsewhere, which appears unlikely at this point.

Here is David Lennon's update on the Mets.

Thanks to this site for the photo. I'm tired of posting A.J. Burnett photos, so I went with one of A.J. Langer, whom we all remember from the brilliant-but-canceled "My So-Called Life." Just a hunch, but I bet that Bob Tufts loved that show ;)

Have a great day.

Catching up: All things Mike Mussina, the NL MVP "debate" and Luis Castillo

2008-11-21T17:20:04Z

Among the many Mike Mussina reflections out there has been the notion that the six-year, $88.5-million contract he signed with the Yankees, back in December 2000, is one of the best, big-money contracts ever given to a free-agent pitcher.

I guess it is, but I think that speaks as much to the lack of success Mussina's contemporaries registered as it does the work of Mussina himself.

Look at the list James K. provided, in the item below, on Mussina's finest seasons. Of Mussina's 10 best years, from an ERA+ standpoint, three of them occurred during Mussina's six-year deal - 2001 (142), 2003 (129) and 2006 (129). He was pretty good (109) in 2002 and slightly below average in 2004 (98) and 2005 (96).

Now, keep in mind, he was being paid as an elite pitcher these six years. And while the Yankees aren't about to ask for their money back, he performed as an elite pitcher for only half of the contract.

It's just another example of the problem behind free agents, as we've discussed: You're often paying them for what they've done, rather than what they're going to do, and no matter how often you say think otherwise, the good times won't make the not-so-good feel any better. In 2004 and 2005, the Yankees and their fans weren't saying, "Well, Moose has slipped some, but we'll always have 2001!" They were saying, "Uh oh, he's not as good as he used to be."

As for Mussina's Hall of Fame candidacy, I said "Probably yes" yesterday, and I'll stick to that. It's a tough call. Richie G. asked about the fact that Mussina had only four seasons with 200-plus strikeouts, and he also noted that Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine didn't rack up the Ks.

I guess it depends on how exclusive you want to keep the Hall. If you're talking about the elite starting pitchers of the last 20 years, then you're talking about Roger Clemens (whose candidacy is in jeopardy), Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez. The next tier includes Glavine, Maddux, Mussina, Curt Schilling and John Smoltz, in alphabetical order. Smoltz and Schilling were the most dominant of that group, strikeout-wise, but there's something to be said for durability and efficiency, too. Glavine didn't go on the disabled list until 2008. Maddux was a strike-throwing machine (although, in his later years, he seemed fine departing after five innings and 75 pitches).

As I keep stressing, however, I think it's only a matter of time _ certainly within my professional lifetime, as someone who is the same age as Richie G. _ before the Hall of Fame is no longer the BBWAA's domain.

OK, I read Murray Chass' take on the NL MVP, as prompted by Jack, and it won't shock you that I strongly disagree. Most of all, I take offense to Murray's implication that I didn't know what I was doing.

"You want a player of the year? Pick Pujols," Chass wrote. "You want a most valuable player? Hail Howard. Too bad too many voters might not have understood the difference."

What I understand best is that a) the Cardinals were in the pennant race until the middle of September, and b) that wouldn't have been the case without Pujols. Pujols' numbers are ridiculously better than Howard, and Pujols is also a vastly superior fielder and baserunner.

To penalize Pujols because the Phillies had Brad Lidge and the Cardinals didn't is, to me, absurd. Now, I understand that I'm being a hypocrite, because I didn't put Tim Lincecum on my ballot due to the Giants' irrelevance. But the Cardinals were very much relevant. They were a good team that impacted the pennant race.

Good story by Joel Sherman on Luis Castillo. Apparently Castillo wants a second chance with the Mets and is taking accountability for the fact that he was not fully ready to play in 2008. That has to make the Mets feel a little better about their situation at second base. I just don't see Orlando Hudson becoming a Met, at this point.

Oh, and don't take Hal Steinbrenner's ultimatum (or whatever it was) seriously. The Yankees badly want CC Sabathia. If he makes them wait until a week before Opening Day 2009, they'll wait.

With our Yankees beat writer Kat O'Brien taking a well-deserved vacation, the River Ave. Blues folks are filling in on our Yankees blog. It's good stuff. I encourage you to check it out.

Thanks to this site for the photo.

Comment Winter Olympics

2008-11-21T06:22:02Z

A really great week for comments. Earnest debates about baseball matters, interesting memories of cross-country trips and shared frustration over the blog's system for registering said comments.

In all sincerity, I really appreciate you grinding through the "comment submission error" thing. I know my dot-com teammates are working hard to eradicate it.

Sorry, also, that I was MIA yesterday. I was running around town, from Bud Selig/Hal Steinbrenner to David Wright to Mike Mussina (on the phone) to John Beilein (a non-work, meet and greet near the Garden - and I should've hung around for the game), and my Internet service was such that I couldn't even call up the blog, let alone create new posts.

Anyway, onto this week's medals.

The bronze goes to James K., once an intermittent commenter, suddenly a passionate one, who used his stats love to support many interesting takes. Here was my favorite, as part of the "Tom Glavine vs. Mike Mussina" Hall of Fame debate:

Because I need a break from studying for the CPA exam, I took the time to list out Moose and Glavine's 10 best full seasons as far as ERA+:

Glavine: 168, 153, 147, 141, 140, 139, 135, 133, 127, 125
Mussina:163, 157, 145, 142, 137, 134, 132, 129, 129, 129

It's pretty close. Dunno if you could say one was excessively better than the other, but to go to tiebreakers (K/BB, WHIP, etc.) Mussina outperformed Glavine. I just wish voters and fans would start with statistics rather than perception (i.e. "Glavine is a Hall of Famer - he was dominant, anyone would pick him over Mussina"). Perceptions vary - statistics don't.

The silver goes to Jack, who seemed to like making predictions this week:

Prediction: The "comment submission error" phenomenon leads to lower page views and lower comment totals.

And the gold goes to Richie G., who offered an interesting tale of a trip to our heartland:

When I drove cross country to Vegas, I stopped in Nebraska in the smallest town in America. They have a diner, a movie theatre that is 100 years old and a Mom and Pop supermarket.

I go to the market and get Planters cashews. This old lady sees me on line and says, "Oh, I didn't know they had cashews."

It's far back in the store so I go, "Do you want me to get you some cashews?" She says no, but I say don't worry and go and get them. I give them to her and she says, "Oh, they dont have Planters Cashews?" I laugh, and go back, and she says no, but I go back and get her Planters Cashews.

She thanks me and as I leave I say, "Just know this. A New Yorker helped you!"

She says, "Really?? I thought all you people were so mean!" I say, "Nope. We are the nicest people in the world. Unless we don't like you, and then we shoot you."

I took a chance...she laughed.
.

More later. Thanks to this site and this site for the accompanying art.

Mike Mussina, CC Sabathia, Daniel Murphy and Aaron Heilman

2008-11-20T13:19:40Z

Sorry, I'm having problems this morning with my Internet service, so I'm a little link-deficient. Let's kick off the day Spadafore-style.

News: Mike Mussina will announce his retirement as soon as today.

Views: Not a shocker, obviously. True to his nature, Mussina strongly hinted at this following his last start of the season, and I don't think he ever wavered.

What I enjoyed most about Mussina is how engaged he was in his post-game news conferences. When reporters ask stupid questions - and believe it or not, that happens on occasion - then most players are relieved and offer a rote answer. Mussina, however, was offended, and he could treat the questioner with disdain.

It was rude, on one level. But I always throught it reflected an interest of his to actually be insightful and honest, and the subsequent frustration he felt when the questions didn't meet his bar. Red Sox manager Terry Francona is the same way.

Now, for the bigger question: Hall of Fame? Probably. But I'm glad I'll have five years to think about it (assuming the BBWAA is still electing Hall of Famers in five years, which is hardly a sure thing).

News: CC Sabathia won't decide on his future employer until after Thanksgiving.

Views: This means very little, except that he wants to take his time. And why shouldn't he? It's an immense decision.

I'm always amazed at how people forget history. Fans are wondering, "What's taking so long?" But if you look at past baseball offseasons, it's extremely rare for a free agent of Sabathia's caliber to decide so early in the process. I suppose Sabathia helped create this situation with some statements, toward the end of the season, that he wouldn't take a long time to decide. But that probably means "early December," rather than "before Thanksgiving."

Meanwhile, someone in the Dodgers' loop told me last night that the Dodgers simply can't afford Sabathia. As much as the lefty would prefer the West Coast and the National League, it seems he has no great options for either one right now. Good news for the Yankees, unless you're a Yankees fan who doesn't want Sabathia.

News: Daniel Murphy is coming back to New York for testing on an injured knee.

Views: Further evidence that the Mets, while they are correct to prioritize pitching this winter, really have to add depth to their lineup. I'm pretty certain Murphy won't be as great in 2009 as he was in 2008.

News: The Daily News quotes Aaron Heilman's agent, Mark Rodgers, saying that Heilman wants to start somewhere else, if not with the Mets.

Views: Given Heilman's '08 season, he probably shouldn't be speaking to his desires. In any case, the Mets realize they have to trade Heilman. Many teams that used to regard him as a potential starting pitcher don't necessarily feel that way anymore, however.

Thanks to this site

Transaction Analysis: Coco Crisp for Ramon Ramirez, and the Mariners hire Don Wakamatsu

2008-11-19T18:58:09Z

Remember when Coco Crisp exemplified Theo Epstein's brilliance? When Crisp was supposed to be the younger, better, cheaper version of Johnny Damon, as Damon's replacement as the Red Sox's for the 2006 season?

That didn't work out too great.

Damon's OPS+ the last three years: 115 in 149 games, 97 in 141 games and 118 in 143 games.
Crisp's OPS+ in the last three years: 77 in 105 games, 83 in 145 games, 93 in 118 games.

Yes, Crisp was a superior defender, and Damon wound up switching to leftfield for the Yankees, but still. The trade today ends a big move that didn't work out as hoped.

To Theo Epstein's credit, however, this deal marks a positive end. Ramirez gives the Red Sox a hard-throwing bullpen arm - and you can be sure that if Ramirez gets some big outs against the Yankees, we media types will bring up that Ramirez was once Yankees property, even though you can't blame Brian Cashman for giving up Ramirez for 2005 savior Shawn Chacon - and now the Red Sox can contemplate converting Justin Masterson back into a starting pitcher.

It'll make the Red Sox less desperate in the A.J. Burnett-Derek Lowe sweepstakes, which should please Red Sox Nation. And of course, they have Jacoby Ellsbury to play centerfield.

On the other side, Crisp will be happier playing every day, and this makes you wonder whether the Royals would be open to trading David DeJesus to the Yankees.

There are no more managerial openings for 2009, now that the Mariners have made their decision. I've never met Don Wakamatsu but have heard only good things. The Mariners, a complete disaster in 2008, will be one of the more interesting teams to follow. They have some interesting pieces, particularly on their pitching staff, despite being horribly mismanaged by departed GM Bill Bavasi the prior four and a half seasons.

Thanks to this site for the photo. I happened to see this catch first-hand, as the Mets were at Fenway. It might be the most incredible defensive play I've seen in person.