Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

Before you even ask...no, that's not Baumbach running under the Triborough Bridge.

Over some 50 hours, we got four ballgames in two ballparks. So let's get right to work. It's a Subway Series II review.

1. I almost feel guilty ripping into Johan Santana, because it offends the statistical analyst in me. But after Santana took the loss Saturday, and even more important, after he declined to take even a sliver of accountability in his frustrating month, I decided it was time to go after Santana, if just a little.

He's been very good with the Mets so far, and as you know, I throw out that 7-7 record; it could be much better. But Santana is not as elite as he once was. We've been discussing that here - baileywalk, you pointed it out the earliest, I think - and if you read the linked column, you'll see that a veteran scout agrees.

What's even more disturbing is that, so far, Santana has not emitted the "Climb on my back, and I'll carry you to victory" aura that you want to see from an ace. You pretty much saw that from Oliver Perez yesterday.

Santana's post-game comments serve as Exhibit A. I'd love to hear him say, "I'm the highest-paid pitcher in baseball. If my teammates give me a 1-0 lead, my job is to protect it." Like the way Andy Pettitte beats himself up whenever he loses. But that hasn't happened, not at all. Instead, it's, "I'm not perfect."

Maybe this will all solve itself. Maybe Santana will turn in a trademark second half, and the Mets will finally start hitting. But the eyebrows that Santana has raised so far reflect the danger in investing nine figures ($137.5 million, in this intance) in a player you don't know. Because now he has created some tension, albeit minor, by pointing fingers (he did at David Wright in his previous start, as mentioned in the "Weekend Predictions" post beheath this), and that's not something you would've anticipated from him.

2. Meanwhile, the Mets went 9-6 in interleague play. The Phillies went 4-11, and the Marlins went 5-10. That's pretty significant. Where would be the Mets be now without their relative success in interleague play?

And now we get a big, big week for the Mets, their biggest test yet _ four games at NL wild-card leader St. Louis, and then four games at the division-leading Phillies. Knowing them, they'll probably go 4-4.

3. Sometimes you wonder whether Jerry Manuel drinks truth serum during every meal. His pre-game comments yesterday captured everyone's attention. I agree with my colleague Wally Matthews: Manuel was merely being honest, when he said the Mets were the second team in town. I really hope no one in the yakkosphere, not to mention no one in the Mets' front office, takes Manuel to task for his frank remarks.

4. Even though the Yankees lost yesterday, I was impressed with the way Joe Girardi ran the game, in particular his righty-heavy lineup against Oliver Perez and his throwing David Robertson in a high-leverage situation in Robertson's major-league debut. Neither worked, but they were good ideas.

Girardi possesses a luxury that Joe Torre lacked in his final years; this is not a "playoffs or bust" season. Girardi is capitalizing on that by experimenting with different lineups and bullpen maneuvers. He's utilizing his entire roster, which is something that Torre consistently failed to do.

5. But speaking of Torre, he's so brilliant that he managed his team to a victory without getting a hit Saturday night! I know, this isn't technically a Subway Series matter, but the Dodgers' victory while getting no-hit raised a pet peeve for me.

According to Major League Baseball's rules, this will not be recorded as a no-hitter, because the Angels pitched only eight innings. I say, why not? Who says you have to win a no-hitter? A no-hitter is a game in which a team doesn't surrender any hits. End of conversation.

I'd love to see MLB open up the record books for both losing, eight-inning no-hitters and rain-shortened no-hitters. You can notate them as such. But they should be in there.

6. Jorge Posada's throwing arm isn't near full-strength, so it looks like third catcher Chad Moeller is going to hang around for a while. Meanwhile, Posada started at first base yesterday. I'm very curious to see what the Yankees do at first base next year. Go after Mark Teixeira? Re-sign Jason Giambi? Go after a lesser player, in anticipation of playing Posada more there? The Yankees have another half-season to process information for that decision.

7. For those in the media who cover only the Yankees, like Newsday's Kat O'Brien, yesterday marked their final trip to Shea unless the Mets make the playoffs (I think they will, as you know). I have to say, I'm jealous. From a reporter's perspective, it doesn't get much worse than Shea.

What do you Mets fans think? Do any of you have a soft spot for Shea? Me, if I were running things, I'd open Citi Field for the next homestand, no matter its state of readiness.

1. The Yankees will defeat the Mets, 6-4 at Yankee Stadium, in Game 1 of today's two-stadium doubleheader, only to see their clubhouse showers break afterwards. So they'll have no choice but to bus over to Shea Stadium while still sweaty in their home uniforms. Asked later what the bus smelled like, Joe Girardi will respond, "We stunk, is the bottom line. We stunk."

2. The Mets will win Game 2 at Shea Stadium, 6-1, behind a strong effort by Pedro Martinez. Yankees starter Sidney Ponson will further injure his already damaged reputation by dissing Kobe Bryant in a rap.

3. Johan Santana, embarrassed by giving up a grand slam to Felix Hernandez in his previous start, will dominate the Yankees en route to a 4-0 victory Saturday at Shea, allowing just three hits and striking out 13 in a complete-game shutout. But when it starts to rain after the game, Santana will blame David Wright.

4. In Sunday's Subway Series finale, the Mets will prevail, 8-3, giving them a 5-1 series victory over the Yankees. In a show of support for their interim manager, that they get his funky analogies, the Mets fans will create T-shirts combining the team logo with pictures of fertilizer.

5. I really think that we can't discuss the minor leagues enough nowadays, when veteran players are so cost-prohibitive and not necessarily better. So even though I wrote about the Mets' thin farm system in my Midweek Insider, when my boss (no, not that boss) asked me to write a column advancing this weekend's series, the topic that popped to my mind was the disparity in minor-league talent between the Yankees and Mets. The Mets have really hurt themselves by limiting their intake to players willing to sign for the slotted signing bonus.

As I wrote in this column, the Mets have a better chance than the Yankees to win the 2008 World Series, IMHO. But starting next year, and continuing into forever, for now, the Yankees will be better positioned. As I mentioned back in February, the Mets deserve credit for getting Johan Santana, yet it's also an indictment of their system that they felt they had to absolutely go outside their organization for pitching help.

6. Sam Borden, a columnist for the Journal News, is going to walk from Yankee Stadium to Shea Stadium in between games today, and he's treating the walk as an opportunity to fight cancer. Here is the relevant information, if you want to help.

Newsday's Ken Davidoff answers your Subway Series and other baseball questions in a special live chat today at 1 p.m.

There's a different feeling in a clubhouse after the final game of a series, at least from my outsider's perspective. Wins feel better, and losses feel worse.

Take last night's Mets game. The Mets performed terribly Monday and Tuesday, looking meek against baseball's worst team. But they avoided a sweep last night, and they'll get to enjoy today's off day knowing that, despite everything that has transpired in their miserable roller-coaster ride of a 2008, they're just three games behind the NL East leaders Philadelphia in the loss column.

The Mets are now 3-0 in series finales under Jerry Manuel, who, to his credit, is at least trying to shake things up. Why not alter the pre-game routine? Does that record reflect something positive about Manuel? Or is it just random?

I conducted some cursory research to see if the result of the series finale carried any sort of extra impact, a positive or negative carryover. Here's what I found:

The discussion that yesterday's item generated on the competence of Bud Selig, combined with a pair of uninspiring games from our local teams ("uninspiring" serving as a euphemism for "I had the night off and didn't watch them"), motivated me to look into the blog closet for this old idea. Tom Verducci wrote this a couple of years ago for Sports Illustrated's Web site, but the link isn't working. You can read it by clicking the first story here.

So let's do it. It's a participatory item: What would you do if you could replace Bud Selig for one day? Pretend that the Players Association doesn't exist (stop salivating, Richie G.), so that you can pass through whatever you want.

Here's my agenda:

1. Institute instant replay, now. Start with boundary calls on home runs. But make it clear that the intent is to eventually have instant replay decide controversial calls on everything besides balls and strikes. Explain to the fans that, while some of these determinations might lengthen the game, it'll be far more palatable to lengthen the game in a "productive" manner than to watch the wronged manager work his way to an ejection.

2. Announce that the designated hitter position will be terminated after the 2012 season. That allows Cleveland's Travis Hafner, the DH with the greatest job security, to play for the duration of his contract. I'm old school. I like the strategy involved when the pitcher hits. Plus, the absence of the DH should make up some of the time lost by the usage of replay.

3. Redesign the postseason to make life harder for the wild-card winner. This was Verducci's top priority . We discussed it yesterday here, and I first blogged about it last September. I'd go with the way the Pacific League used to do it - the wild-card winner must win four games to advance past the first round, while the division winner need win only three. I'm confident that the public would quickly catch onto the formula.

4. Spend more to find a reliable test for HGH. Baseball is high on its expert in this field, Gary Green, and I certainly don't have any evidence that Green isn't legitimate. But why put all your eggs in one basket? Why not throw some more resources to a different expert and see if the competition can speed up the development time? There's no harm in trying this, is there?

5. Tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth about George Mitchell. "Of course he's a profoundly conflicted creep. But look, those nimrods in Congress worship the guy so much, they think he doesn't even use the bathroom. Understand that, by hiring Mitchell to lead the investigation, Bud Selig got Congress off the industry's back, at least until the Democrats lose power back to the Republicans. Will it hurt Bud's legacy that he selected his pal, ensuring his own job security? Absolutely. But it also prevented, at least for the short term, more Congressional interference."

6. Reduce, and simplify, interleague play. Borrow from the NFL's model on interconference play, which promotes parity. We're going to make it just six interleague games _ one week, constituting two, three-game series. If you finished in first or second place in your division, then you're going to play the first- and second-place team in the assigned division for that year. If you finished third or fourth, then you're going to play the corresponding third- and fourth-place team.

For instance, in 2008, the Yankees, having finished second in the AL East in 2007, would have played the Cubs and Brewers, and the Mets, having finished second in the NL East last year, would've played the Angels and Mariners.

The league imbalance makes the formula tricky for the five fifth-place clubs and one sixth-place team (last place in the NL Central). Suffice it to say that those six losers will play a six-game schedule amongst themselves. Forget about rewarding bad teams (which often draw poorly) by sending the Yankees or Red Sox their way. Make those losers work their way to such revenues. You're also giving them a hand up by letting them play teams with an equally shaky recent past.

7. Make Pete Rose eligible for the Hall of Fame again. This was Fay Vincent's biggest mistake: Instead of letting the writers decide Rose's fate _ and I'm optimistic the majority would've done the right thing and kept him out of Cooperstown _ he came up with a new rule that people suspended from baseball shouldn't be eligible for the Hall. The rule targeted Rose. It should be eliminated.

Rose's 15 years of eligibility on the writers' ballot have passed, but urge the writers to make an exception and put him on their ballot for 2009 and only 2009. Give the BBWAA one chance to formally reject him, and after that put him on the Veterans Committee's ballot.

Of course, if he actually gets voted in, then we're all probably headed for, as Bill Murray put it in "Ghostbusters": "Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!"

To clarify, since I see this already coming up in the responses: I'm not advocating Rose's inclusion in the Hall. I'd never vote for him, personally. I'm just saying he shouldn't be banned from the ballot. He should be considered, just as the steroid guys should.

All right, now it's your turn. Jim, sorry, you do not have the power to send Selig to Guantanamo Bay ;) But otherwise, anything goes.

Of our major team sports, Major League Baseball puts together the schedule with the least integrity. It's not even close. And that's because of interleague play.

The impetus for a "rivalry" series _ that there should be six games of Mets-Yankees, Cubs-White Sox, etc. _ is financial. Those games are guaranteed sellouts. Tough beans if, say, the Mets have to play the Yankees six times while the Phillies get to avoid the Yankees altogether.

And, as commenter Andy pointed out yesterday, in recent years, the interleague schedule has become increasingly haphazard. The Yankees are targeted to play the NL Central this year _ so of course, they played the Padres last week. The Mets play the AL West, but they don't play Oakland. But they played Oakland last year, when they were lined up with the AL Central.

Yet despite these gross inadequacies, if Bud Selig woke up this morning, had a crisis of consience and said, "No more!" I would miss interleague play.

Because of games like last night at Shea. A Felix Hernandez grand slam off Johan Santana? Are you kidding me? That is great theater.

Then you have the Yankees' return to Pittsburgh tonight, which is being treated as sort of a big deal. As well it should be. Bill Mazeroski's 1960 World Series-winning homer is one of the game's all-time great moments. Of course the Pittsburgh fans are going to want to remember it.

Selig and his owners want more moments like this _ new memories like King Felix's slam, and the chance to re-live past agonies and ecstasies. Hank Steinbrenner can whine all he wants about the lack of a designated hitter in the National League. It'll get him nowhere.

I guess the lesson is, if you're going to operate without integrity, you should at least make sure your venture is worthwhile. In the case of interleague play, the end justifies the means. I know I shouldn't like it. But I do, anyway.

Took most of the weekend off, after last week's exhausting turn of events, and barely watched any game action. But now I"m tanned and rested, and ready to go back at it.

On "Fox Sports Extra" last night, host Duke Castilgione asked the New York Post's Mike Vaccaro and me, "Who has a better chance of making the playoffs, the Yankees or Mets?"

I said the Mets, because I always stay faithful to my preseason predictions. I think this past week displayed, vividly, what an upgrade the Mets received by replacing Willie Randolph with Jerry Manuel in the manager's office. And with Mike Pelfrey dealing, the Mets can throw out a pretty good starting pitcher, health permitting, every day. And now they won't play another game west of the Central time zone. After all the Mets have been through, isn't it amazing that they're just two games behind the Phillies and Marlins in the loss column?

The Yankees? I question their starting rotation and their strength of schedule (it's very hard) most of all. I also think the AL East is proving very difficult. You'll see that I selected Toronto as my AL wild card, and as I'm sure you can all appreciate, that was a typo. I intended to predict Tampa Bay in that slot. We all make spelling mistakes, right? You understand, I know.

In any case, it turns out that the Mets ARE more likely to make the playoffs than the Yankees, according to people who put far more thought into this than I do.

Check out this site. Each day, Baseball Prospectus analyst Clay Davenport simulates the rest of the season one million times - incorporating all of the updated data, and utilizing said data to project ahead.

Look at what today's forecast tells us: Of the one million simulated season conclusions, the Mets make the playoffs 22.7 percent of the time. The Yankees qualify 15.2 percent of the time.

It's a pretty neat tool, as you can see. How interesting that the A's are the "favorites" to win the AL West, despite trailing the Angels by 4 1/2 games. And that the Tigers, after their memorably horrendous starts, are up to a 12.2 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Thoughts? With which of these projections do you agree, and with which do you disagree? The great thing about this page is that you can check it every day, and the odds will fluctuate in conjunction with the team's success.

1. The Mets, in wrapping up one of the most eventful weeks in their history, will continue their recent upswing by taking two of three games from the Rockies at Coors Field. In their one loss Sunday, they will tally three runs to Colorado's 11, so that the 3:11 on the scoreboard honors the three men who lost their jobs in the Midnight Massacre.

2. The Yankees, loving their easy interleague schedule, will sweep their three-game series with the Reds at Yankee Stadium. After Mike Mussina gets nicked by a line drive tonight, however, Hank Steinbrenner, continuing his pursuit to keep pitchers out of harm's way, will demand that all hurlers be placed in a protective bubble.

3. Four days later, a confused Carl Pavano will still be wondering, "Why would anyone ever complain about being taken out of a game?"

4. I will appear Sunday night on "Sports Extra" with Duke Castiglione, 10:30 on Channel 5.

5. I ran into a baseball industry contact Wednesday at Angel Stadium, and the contact ridiculed me and my media brethren for overreacting to the Midnight Massacre.

"You're consumed by the 'how,' and ignoring the 'what,'" the person said.

"Well," I countered, "doesn't the 'how' reflect the poor leadership of Omar Minaya and the Wilpons?"

"What's the difference?" the person said. "The manager needed to be fired. They fired the manager. Who cares whether he had to fly back home, or what time happened? Omar exhibited leadership by sticking with Willie and giving him as long a chance as possible to turn it around."

I know some of you (mostly non-regular commenters) expressed such a sentiment on Tuesday, but most were outraged, as was I, by the tactics of the firing. Three days later...I'm not as outraged. But I still think it was the wrong way to go about it. Not historically bad. But bad.

Have any of you changed your thoughts, with some more time to absorb what the Mets did?