Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

1. The suddenly hot Mets will take two of the remaining three games against Joe Torre's Dodgers. But late Sunday night, when the team refuses to say what meal will be served on the overnight, cross-country flight to San Francisco, Carlos Beltran will grow upset, saying, "I think they should say that and come out with something like that. Because it is a distraction."

2. The Yankees will take three of four games from the Twins in Minneapolis, but it won't be easy. With Joba Chamberlain preparing for his new job as starting pitcher, Joe Girardi will see late-inning leads blown by Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Ross Ohlendorf, Edwar Ramirez and Chris Britton _ prompting Brian Cashman to make phone calls to Seattle, New Jersey and Florida in search of answers.

3. After reading Newsday's coverage of Jason Giambi's mustache and Jay Horwitz's improbably bright orange jacket, writer-director Paul Thomas Anderson will stand up and say, "Finally, I am inspired to make a sequel to my most famous film!"

4. Not sure who will prevail in the three-game set between the Tigers and the Mariners, but the loser will inherit this title from the 1992 Mets.

5. The information concerns Wally Backman, who has been mentioned (and supported here) as a candidate to replace Willie Randolph. Thanks to jb for providing the initial link and to Jim for getting it to work. Here it is.

If Backman were really dedicated to being a big-league manager _ if you remember, the Diamondbacks actually named him as their manager in the fall of 2004, then fired him four days later _ he would be completely humble, understanding that one misstep could cost him dearly.

But read the link, and see the trouble that Backman found: Multiple suspensions. A run-in with an opposing broadcaster. And then, he just quit; as you can see in this story, he did agree to come back, although the indepdendent South Coast League is currently shut down.

So I retract my semi-endorsement of Backman. There would be way too much baggage here - and, even more important, there's scant evidence that Backman can control himself, going forward. Richie G., you've cited the Mets' hiring of Darryl Strawberry as an SNY analyst. But there's an immense difference between hiring someone as a TV broadcaster and hiring someone as your manager. The bar is raised considerably for the latter.

The 2003 Yankees worked with a cloud over their head. Everyone knew that manager Joe Torre and owner George Steinbrenner were feuding like never before, with bench coach Don Zimmer serving as a pawn in this incredibly tense battle.

And yet that team tied Atlanta for the best record in the major leagues, because it had four above-average starting pitchers _ Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and David Wells _ and the world's best closer in Mariano Rivera. It also mounted an incredibly inspiring, curse-promoting rally to make the World Series.

The two players making the most money on the 2004 Yankees _ yes, this guy and this guy _ pretty much couldn't stand each other. Their best hitter was, to put it politely, paranoid and delusional. Torre didn't even try to hide his contempt for Kenny Lofton, meanwhile, and Kevin Brown alienated every homo sapiens that crossed his path.

Yet not only did that team post the most victories in the AL - it did so by trademarking the come-from-behind rally, the supposed indicator of a team's unity. If not for a blown save by Rivera, one of the best teammates in baseball history, they would've swept the Red Sox in the ALCS.

That's the sort of stuff I contemplate when we discuss chemistry, and these 2008 Mets. If you had spent the last two months in a biosphere and then gone straight to Shea Stadium last night, you would've watched the Mets-Marlins game and said, "Hey, what great chemistry here! Endy Chavez's ninth-inning homer! Carlos Beltran's and David Wright's perfect execution of the hit and run in the 12th! And how about Fernando Tatis, emerging from oblivion with the big hit!"

I don't think chemistry in baseball is completely bogus, not when you watch a team like last year's Dodgers implode, or last year's Phillies overcome absolutely brutal pitching to behind the strong play of strong personalities like Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Aaron Rowand.

And yet...what can you say about these Mets? I've been as guitly as anyone the last two weeks wondering what's going on in that clubhouse, saying that it's probably time for a change in the manager's office. But you saw the way they celebrated last night, in what at least felt like a huge victory. And if you read Anthony Rieber's game story, linked above, you'll see that the team is all fired up about a lucky, bright-orange blazer that the players ordered public-relations maven Jay Horwitz to wear Tuesday, and to keep wearing for the duration of the winning streak.

The jacket was originally owned by Jeromy Burnitz and is used as a "slump-buster." It's the sort of tactic used by a team exhibiting togetherness. Although, if Johan Santana had gotten bombed on Tuesday night, then it would have been a pathetically desperate effort by a distracted group of players, ya know?

So I think that, yes, we generally overestimate the importance of chemistry _ but I would never altogether dismiss it.

I'm curious to hear the thoughts of Mr. Tufts on this. JoeNunz, I know where you're coming down on this issue. Dennis, after last night, do you still think the Mets are SOFT?

As first reported by Jon Heyman, part of the reason the Mets have stayed put with Willie Randolph is because team officials discussed and examined the history of clubs who changed managers midseason. They found that, more often than not, the switch didn't accomplish much.

"It's like going to a casino," one person in the loop said. "It's easier to remember the times it went well."

We all remember Jack McKeon (pictured above) replacing Jeff Torborg as the Marlins' manager in 2003 and winning it all, and even more so Bob Lemon taking over for Billy Martin on the 1978 Yankees and getting a World Series ring out of it. But the Mets regard those as aberrations.

I don't know. I think it might work better than the Mets believe. It's certainly easier to pull off than the roommate switch.

According to my calculations, there have been 23 in-season managerial changes (resulting from firings, rather than resignations) since the wild-card era began in 1995. But I can think of only four comparables, in that time frame, to the Mets' current situation: A team designed to contend, making the change early enough so that it can still have a high impact. And honestly, if McKeon had bombed with the '03 Marlins, I don't think I'd even include them on this list, since it's not like we all thought, at the time, "Man, Florida sure is underachieving." We just thought that Florida stunk.

Here are the four precedents (and please, if you think I'm omitting any other obvious comparables since 1995, don't be shy).

1) 1998 Dodgers. Fired Bill Russell (36-38), hired Glenn Hoffman (47-41).
2) 2001 Red Sox. Fired Jimy Williams (65-53), hired Joe Kerrigan (17-26).
3) 2003 Marlins. Fired Jeff Torborg (16-22), hired Jack McKeon (75-49).
4) 2004 Astros. Fired Jimy Williams (44-44), hired Phil Garner (48-26).

This small sample size bodes somewhat well for change. In addition to the '03 Marlins' World Series title, the '04 Astros advanced to Game 7 of the National League Championship Series against St. Louis. The '98 Dodgers fell short of the playoffs, but they put up a better record. And the '01 Red Sox fell apart, under the pitching coach turned manager Kerrigan, whom everyone knew was a puppet of GM Dan Duquette in the conflict between Duquette and Williams.

There were personality differences involved. McKeon had that image as the fun-loving, cigar-chomping type, whereas Torborg was more of a militant guy - although McKeon lost his players just a couple of years later. Compared to the odd Williams (I love that he's on this list twice), Garner was fiery. I'm not sure how different Russell and Hoffman were.

I still think Mets bench coach Jerry Manuel would present a good enough contrast to Randolph, in that Randolph has a persecution complex and Manuel doesn't. But maybe a greater change is needed. Richie G.'s Wally Backman recommendation has merit.

Of course, on nights like last night, it looks like the Mets can accomplish anything, even if Randolph remains in the manager's office.

Hope you all had a great weekend. In the midst of my holiday activities, I attended this game and saw no prospects of interest. But my son got himself a Connecticut Defenders cap, sweatshirt and mini bat, so it was a good night, nonetheless.

So I was among the many who had a better weekend than Willie Randolph, and at this point, I'm not sure what's motivating the Mets to keep him as their manager. The team is absolutely going into the tank, as a return home didn't help last night.

It is far from too late to salvage this season. A good week against the right teams, and the Mets can bring themselves right back into the race. But I don't see that good week occurring on Randolph's watch. Too much has happened now. As Carlos Beltran admitted, the whole thing is a distraction. Even if Omar Minaya deserves some blame, as well, I don't see how this roster could be performing any worse than it has in the last calendar year.

I don't buy the notion that the Mets need a "fiery" manager. They just need someone who will retsore peace and a sense of purpose to the clubhouse. I think they have that person on their staff, in the form of bench coach Jerry Manuel. No, Manuel will never be mistaken for Billy Martin, or even Dusty Baker. He does have significant managerial experience, however, having guided the 2000 White Sox to an AL Central title in his third year on the job. And you can bet he won't be watching coverage of himself on SNY, taking notes and voicing complaints.

1. With Willie Randolph's job in grave danger, the Mets will take two of three games in Colorado. But Randolph will continue to feel that the world is out to get him, insisting that, in addition to SNY, the anti-Willie conspiracy includes Major League Baseball, the NRA, the Clintons, The Simpsons and the people who came up with Bubble Wrap.

2. The Yankees will drop two of three to Seattle. Meanwhile, John McCain, trying to decide on a running mate, will dismiss Mitt Romney from consideration. "I'm sorry," McCain will say, "but I just can't respect someone who thinks Joba should stay in the bullpen."

3. Umpire Mike Reilly, enjoying a weekend off, will be a contestant on "Jeopardy!" and know the question to the Final Jeopardy answer, "This former Secretary of State occasionally sits in George Steinbrenner's box at Yankee Stadium." But fellow ump Bob Davidson will overrule Reilly, and the re-submitted question "Who is Ronan Tynan?" will wind up embarrassing all umpires.

4. On Saturday, Joe Girardi will throw his hat to the ground twice, then kick some dirt, until he finally gets his way: Pizza for dinner, it is.

5. Mike Piazza, now retired, will cackle with glee when it occurs to him that he and Roger Clemens will likely be on the 2013 Hall of Fame ballot together, and that Clemens won't get in. Piazza won't stop laughing until it's time for his induction speech on July 28, 2013 _ at which point he'll speak for 28 minutes, and then resume laughing.

Imagine if the Yankees were 30-16, rather than 21-25, and resided in first place in the AL East. And then the Yankees came out last night and said, "You know our phenomenal setup man, Joba Chamberlain? We're going to turn him into a starting pitcher, right now."

Forget about how the fan base would've reacted. The veteran players on the Yankees might have planned an insurrection. Winning teams don't blow up successful bullpen formulas.

Of course, the Yankees are not a winning team, so they could initiate their plan to convert Joba last night. What are the veterans going to say? They've got no hand, to borrow from Costanza.

It's the right call by the Yankees. As they've shown in the first 46 games, there's minimal value in having a dominant setup man when there aren't many leads to protect. If the Yankees don't make the postsesaon this year, then they very well might next year, and Joba is the guy best equipped to match up against opposing aces like Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander and John Lackey.

The eighth inning this year? It's up to Brian Cashman, Joe Girardi and Dave Eiland to figure that out. Kyle Farnsworth? That's why someone invented "LOL." Ross Ohlendorf? Maybe. Mark Melancon? Can't rule him out. The whole idea is, each year, we see surprise setup men emerge, be it Boston's Hideki Okajima or San Diego's Heath Bell or Chamberlain himself last year. But it's far more rare for surprise aces to emerge. Those, we see coming from a distance. And Joba can be one of those.

As to whose spot Joba takes in the rotation, that will solve itself. The natural choice right now would be Ian Kennedy, so maybe Kennedy takes more time in the minor leagues to work on everything. You certainly can't take Darrell Rasner out of the rotation, not after last night's gem.

Consider this a companion piece to this entry from last month.

In October of 2005, after the Red Sox had been swept out of the American League Division Series by the White Sox, Theo Epstein sat in a conference room with his fellow top Boston officials. Here is what Theo said, as reported in Seth Mnookin's best-selling book, "Feeding the Monster":

"What if we win 85 games [in 2006]? We're bringing up some young players that are going to be better in '07 than they will be next year. And they'll probably be even better than that in '08."

We all know what happened, right? The Red Sox won 86 games in 2006, missed the playoffs and Red Sox Nation thought their world was coming to an end. Then they won the World Series last year, and this morning, they are leading the AL East once again.

Look at the 2006 Sawx, here. Josh Beckett, in his first year on the Sox and in the AL, put up a 5.01 ERA. Jon Lester, a rookie, tallied a 4.76 ERA before being diagnosed with cancer. Kevin Youkilis, in his first full season as a big-leaguer, recorded a 106 OPS+. They had expensive, past-their-prime veterans playing out the string in Keith Foulke, Trot Nixon and the pictured David Wells (whom they traded back to San Diego in August). Mark Loretta was the stopgap second baseman.

Those Red Sox actually led the AL East at the '06 All-Star break, yet the infamous "Boston Massacre II" (a favorite of baileywalk's, if memory serves correct - you have to scroll down a few) highlighted a 9-21 August. They sleepwalked through September, their playoff chances shot.

So what happened? They made three major expenditures the subsequent winter, on J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Only Dice-K helped significantly last year. Otherwise, the difference came in one low-risk acquisition, lefty reliever Hideki Okajima, and the improvement of youngsters: Beckett blossomed in Year 2 of his Fenway Park stay. Youkilis improved. Dustin Pedroia took over at second base and won AL Rookie of the Year honors. Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz showed up late and displayed some mad skills. And Lester returned in time to win the World Series clincher, and he made more history on Monday night.

More youngsters, like last night's winning pitcher Justin Masterson (it was his first career victory), are adding to the Red Sox's fun this year.

These 2008 Yankees are in last place, not first, and they're playing some brutal, brutal baseball right now. Yet the plan is in motion for a similar turnaround to their Rivals'. Once this season ends, then Bobby Abreu, Kyle Farnsworth, Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and Carl Pavano will all be off the books. Then Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui after 2009.

Even if Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy don't make it, there is an army of arms coming up behind them. There are position players, too, although none of the highly-touted outfielders at Double-A Trenton _ Colin Curtis, Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata _ is really lighting it up. Then again, neither did Ellsbury at Double-A in '06.

It's entirely feasible that the pieces won't fall in place for Brian Cashman and the Yankees like they did for Epstein and the Red Sox. But just as Epstein was willing to take a step back for the greater good, so are Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner.

It's worth a shot, since the alternative _ paying huge dollars for huge names _ simply hasn't worked to anyone's satisfaction. So no matter how frustrating this season gets for Yankees fans, it's worth reminding yourself that good things can happen to a team, even when it misses the playoffs.

I planned to take a break from New York ball this morning, looking around the industry, but then I read Ian O'Connor's column in yesterday's Bergen Record about Willie Randolph. Good Lord. It's Willie in full-court "Woe is me" mode.

Here's the quote that irked me enough to call his bluff:

"If you look at my body of work since I've been here, I'm proud of that, because prior to that Mets fans were hiding. You couldn't even find them...."

Okay, now to make clear where I stand: Art Howe was a joke as Mets manager. He was lazy and disinterested, he fell far closer to Homer Simpson than Professor Frink on the intelligence spectrum and, back in the days when Tsuyoshi Shinjo and Kazuo Matsui wore Mets uniforms, he dealt poorly with the always civil Japanese media.

Howe was part of the Mets' problem, unquestionably, of his two years in a Mets uniform, and he deserved to be fired.

BUT, by the time Willie managed his first Mets game in 2005, Omar Minaya had brought in Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. In 2006, Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca and Billy Wagner came aboard, too. Even Art might have managed to make the playoffs with that group; after all, he didn't screw up the ultra-talented A's from 2000 through 2002.

And if Willie had a team centered around a broken-down Mike Piazza, he'd probably be out of a job, by now.

I think that Randolph did considerably good work in both 2005 and 2006, re-establishing a sense of professionalism in the Mets' clubhouse. But the bar had been set low by Howe, and Willie's reward for those seasons came with an extension through next year. Moreover, his strong performance those first two years gave him the rope he needed to get another chance this year, following The Collapse.

As I wrote in this column, which ran in Saturday's Newsday, everyone deserved blame for what happened last year. But this year, with Minaya giving him Ryan Church, Johan Santana and Brian Schneider, Willie needed to mobilize