Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

The best way to describe what Opening Day means to me is that, professionally, it's the day of the year during which I am least cynical.

I'm a sucker for all of it: The pre-game introductions of both rosters (seeing who gets booed), the ceremonial first pitch. Seeing someone pick up his first hit of the season. Being in the winning clubhouse afterward, watching the players enjoy that, for one day, they are undefeated.

It's that feeling of renewal, of a fresh start, for which we all yearn.

I'll be at Yankee Stadium today for Yankees-Blue Jays, and this will mark my 19th Opening Day, if you give me some leeway and count home openers (rather than season openers) in three instances. The first seven came as a fan, from 1988 through 1994. The last 12 have come professionally, starting in 1997.

Since it's my blog, I'm going to list my previous 18 openers and what sticks out in my memory bank from them. I'm getting the dates, of course, from Retrosheet.

1. April 5, 1988. Yankees 8, Twins 0, at Yankee Stadium. Perhaps because this was my first, I remember plenty: 1) Dave Winfield, having just published his autobiography _ which ripped a then-highly unpopular George Steinbrenner _ received a huge ovation; 2) Frank Viola, the reigning World Series MVP, got bombed; 3) Rafael Santana, in his first day as a Yankee, grounded into a triple play; and 4) When we returned to my friend Scott's car after the game, the car had a flat tire.

2. April 7, 1989. Indians 4, Yankees 2, at Yankee Stadium. Jamie Quirk was the Yankees' starting catcher. This was a bad team.

3. April 12, 1990. Tigers 11, Red Sox 7, at Tiger Stadium. All I remember is that it was freezing.

4. April 8, 1991. Tigers 6, Yankees 4, at Tiger Stadium. I recall thinking, "I can't believe Tim Leary is the Yankees' Opening Day starter."

5. April 6, 1992. Blue Jays 4, Tigers 2, at Tiger Stadium. Jack Morris won his Blue Jays debut _ against his old team, to boot. That night, Duke crushed Michigan in the NCAA men's basketball final.

6. April 13, 1993. Tigers 20, Athletics 4, at Tiger Stadium. Check out the roster of the 1993 Tigers. What a fun team they had, as this game exemplified.

7. April 4, 1994, Yankees 5, Rangers 3, at Yankee Stadium. I remember that Jimmy Key started for the Yankees, but otherwise, it's just a fog of bitterness, for that is the year I stopped being a fan.

8. April 1, 1997. Mariners 4, Yankees 2, at the Kingdome. Now a reporter, I saw Ken Griffey, Jr. go deep twice against David Cone.

9. April 1, 1998. Angels 4, Yankees 1, at Edison International Field of Anaheim. LOL on the short-lived stadium name. This was the ballpark's "re-opening," with that cheesy "Magic Mountain" thing beyond left-centerfield.

10. April 5, 1999. A's 5, Yankees 3, at Network Associates Coliseum. Roger Clemens lost in his Yankees debut, and with Joe Torre getting treatment for prostate cancer, interim manager Don Zimmer dropped his record to 0-1.

11. April 3, 2000. Yankees 3, Angels 2, at Edison International Field of Anaheim. Paul O'Neill hit the go-ahead homer, and Orlando Hernandez, coming off what turned out to be his finest major-league season in 1999, won his only Opening Day assignment.

12. April 2, 2001. Yankees 7, Royals 3, at Yankee Stadium. Clemens became the AL's all-time strikeout leader, passing Walter Johnson. With one out in the ninth inning, Joe Torre went to new setup man Todd Williams, who committed a throwing error on Mark Quinn's dribber up the first-base line. Torre immediately replaced Williams with Mariano Rivera, and I seriously think that Torre never trusted Williams again, after facing just that one batter.

13. April 1, 2002. Orioles 10, Yankees 3, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Clemens injured his right hand trying to barehand a comebacker, and he got lit up after that. When Clemens, at an area hospital, agreed to conduct a phone interview with one reporter, I was selected as the pool reporter. I asked Clemens seven or eight questions, then said, "Okay, thanks, Roger." Clemens replied, "Okay, guys" _ confirming our belief that Clemens was just like the Chef in "South Park," who would say, "Hello, children!" to just one child.

14. March 31, 2003. Yankees 8, Blue Jays 4, at SkyDome. Hideki Matsui, making his big-league debut, was supposed to be the story, but he got overshadowed by Derek Jeter's gruesome dislocation of his left shoulder.

15. March 30, 2004. Devil Rays 8, Yankees 3, at Tokyo Dome. Mr. "I Hate Japan," Mike Mussina, got rocked. Paul Quantrill, facing his very first batter while in a Yankees uniform, collided with debutant third baseman Alex Rodriguez and had to leave the game with an injured right knee. Quantrill's knee was never right again.

16. April 3, 2005. Yankees 9, Red Sox 2, at Yankee Stadium. In Randy Johnson's pinstriped debut (as well as David Wells' Red Sox debut), the Yankees exacted the tiniest bit of revenge for the previous October collapse.

17. April 3, 2006. Mets 3, Nationals 2, at Shea Stadium. Paul Lo Duca, in his Mets debut, duped the umpire into making a bad call at home. This was also the game when everyone freaked out because new Met closer Billy Wagner had the same entrance song as Mariano Rivera.

18. April 1, 2007. Mets 6, Cardinals 1, at Busch Stadium. Deja vu of '05, with the New York team avenging a Championship Series defeat.

Okay, now it's your turn. Offer your favorite Opening Day memories. Or perhaps different images from the games I attended. Challenge my preseason predictions (previous item) some more. Do some (bleeping) thing, as Jimmy Serrano told Sidney in this movie.

Best of luck to you and your teams in this 2008 season.

Newsday's season preview is out today, and if you don't get the physical newspaper, you can check it all out here.

As conceived by editor Dave Whitehorn, the special section focuses on the notion of a pitching ace, what with the Mets deciding they couldn't afford not to trade for Johan Santana and the Yankees deciding against the Twins' asking price. Here is a story I wrote on this issue, while if you click "Photos: Ranking MLB teams' aces," you'll see that i attempted to, well...rank the teams' aces, from 1 through 30. In some instances, it was difficult merely deciding who constituted a team's "ace," and I'll be happy to answer any criticism concerning this selection process, as well as the actual rankings.

I'll re-print my predictions right here, with brief explanations:

AL East: 1. Red Sox; 2. Blue Jays; 3. Yankees; 4. Rays; 5. Orioles.
Thoughts: As I've attempted to opine here on the blog, over the last few months, Brian Cashman deserves praise for passing on Santana. But he'll pay a short-term fee for this bold non-move, as the Yankees' pitching carries myriad questions. The Yankees could even win 90 games and miss the playoffs, as the Jays are going to ride strong seasons by Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett into October.

AL Central: 1. Tigers; 2. Indians; 3. White Sox; 4. Twins; 5. Royals.
Thoughts: Despite Detroit's awful spring on the pitching front, I still love their lineup, ace Justin Verlander and manager Jim Leyland. Cleveland could feel some residual fatigue from last October's run.

AL West: 1. Mariners; 2. Angels; 3. A's; 4. Rangers.
Thoughts: The Angels should've picked up another bat over the winter (sorry, Torii Hunter isn't that great a bat). With John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar down, Seattle can make the division title happen with its deeping pitching staff and strong defense.

AL Wild Card: Toronto.
ALCS: Toronto over Boston. Love that Toronto pitching staff, both starting and relief.

NL East: 1. Mets; 2. Braves; 3. Phillies; 4. Nationals; 5. Marlins.
Thoughts: Yes, the Mets have questions about pitching depth and age, but Santana makes everyone so much better. And it's easy to forget they have three elite offensive players in Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright.

NL Central: 1. Cubs; 2. Brewers; 3. Reds; 4. Cardinals; 5. Pirates; 6. Astros.
Thoughts: Should be a cakewalk for the Cubs, and a bad Astros team means no donuts for four brave blog commenters (scroll down to #3).

NL West: 1. Diamondbacks; 2. Dodgers; 3. Rockies; 4. Padres; 5. Giants.
Thoughts: Love the D-Backs' overall depth, and the Dodgers have a ton of talent. Much like the Yankees, the Rockies will make progress, big-picture, even while posting fewer victories.

NL wild card: Dodgers.
NLCS: Mets over Dodgers. That front four of the starting rotation cures all other ills.

World Series: The Mets close out Shea Stadium with jubilation, overcoming the Blue Jays.

MVP: David Ortiz, Boston, and David Wright, Mets.
Cy Young: Erik Bedard, Seattle, and Johan Santana, Mets.
Rookie of the Year: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay (yes, I know he's beginning the year in the minors), and Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers.
Manager of the Year: John McLaren, Seattle, and Lou Piniella, Cubs.

Now's your chance. Rip away. Offer countering predictions. And we'll see how everything turned out, at the end of the regular season and then again at the end of the postseason.

Covering the Yankees-Devil Rays series at the Tokyo Dome, back in 2004, ranks as one of my professional highlights. It wasn't just the two games. It was spending a whole week in Japan.

I got to ride a black hawk chopper with Joe Torre, Brian Cashman and others _ remember Gabe White? He helped me with my seat belt _ after a Yankees contingent visited this place to spread good will. I also visited Hideki Matsui's childhood home, which is now a museum, in Ishikawa.

At the games themselves, guess which Yankee generated the second-most buzz, after Matsui? Not Derek Jeter, not Alex Rodriguez, not Gary Sheffield. It was Mariano Rivera. Every cut fastball produced an "Oooh!" or an "Ahhh!" It was truly an amazing cultural convergence.

Perhaps that first-hand experience explains why I wasn't offended by the manner in which baseball kicked off its 2008 schedule, with the Red Sox and A's splitting a pair in Tokyo. Yes, the games occurred before the conclusion of the Grapefruit League and Cactus League schedules, and yes, they started at 6 a.m. here on the East Coast.

But I'd ask you to take a step back and think globally. Contemplate what it means to the great fans of Japan to host 3 MLB openers over the last nine seasons (the Mets and Cubs played in the inaugural series, back in 2000). Realize the huge marketing potential that Asia holds for MLB. It seems that the Red Sox fans in Boston made the best of a unique situation, much as the Mets fans did in 2000 and Yankees fans in 2004.

It's a great thing for baseball to expand its brand, particularly in Asia, which has such a rich baseball history of its own. Maybe you do have to be there to fully appreciate it. In which case, I'd ask you to trust me when I tell that the Japan trip is a wonderful event.

What I remember most of all, from when "Juiced" came out three years ago, was how passionately the baseball establishment tried to discredit it. Both sides, management and the players, worked aggressively in the media to portray Canseco as a dishonest, money-grubbing rat who should be ignored.

This time, as Canseco releases his second book, "Vindicated," it figures to be different. My bet is that the powers that be opt to no-comment this one, instead of militantly speaking out against it.

Part of that is because "Vindicated" is pretty thin. I speed-read it yesterday and last night, and for the most part, it's a 259-page victory lap. But mostly, it's because Bud Selig, Don Fehr and the rest of the Canseco-bashers came out looking so foolish the last time.

Is Canseco money-grubbing? He concedes that point in "Vindicated." But is he dishonest? Nowhere close to 100 percent, that's for sure. Look at who he accused in "Juiced," of illegal performance-enhancing drug usage: Jason Giambi, Juan Gonzalez, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro and Ivan Rodriguez. Since then, Giambi has fully confessed, Gonzalez made the Mitchell Report (down in this story), McGwire had his day in Congress, and Palmeiro failed a drug test. That's four out of five, with only Pudge coming away clean (although Canseco's book caused skeptics to raise eyebrows at Rodriguez's weight loss).

You could argue, authoritatively, that Canseco has done more to clean up baseball than Congress, Selig and the Players Association. It was his work that spurred the rest into action.

In his sequel, Canseco offers just one eyewitness account; he writes that he injected Magglio Ordonez with steroids and HGH when they were teammates on the 2001 White Sox. The A-Rod stuff, as detailed in my story linked above, is amusing, but pretty flimsy. Can I envision A-Rod asking Canseco hypothetical questions about purchasing steroids? Sure, I can envision pretty much anyone asking that of Canseco. But I certainly wouldn't use this material when contemplating A-Rod's Hall of Fame candidacy down the line.

A-Rod shrugged it off yesterday, and this book definitely won't have the same impact as the first one. Yet down the line, history will remember Canseco somewhat fondly. He's a dirtbag, but, like the people who brought down Pete Rose for gambling back in 1989, he's a dirtbag who accomplished something impressive.

I managed to get a copy today of Jose Canseco's new book, "Vindicated." Here are details. Proper credit should be paid to freelance writer Joe Lavin, who got the first look, and to Deadspin (link on the left side), which made sure that Lavin's discovery got play.

Red Sox and A's are tied, 4-4 in the 10th, as I type this _ not exactly your typical Opening Day, although I applaud taking regular-season games abroad _ but we're still sort of in a preseason mode here.

In the wake of last week's entry concerning five teams that would post worse records than 2007, here is the flip side: Six teams that will improve.

1. Mets (88-74 in 2007). Yes, there are imperfections here, but that starting rotation is sublime. And Jose Reyes will be motivated to prove that last September was a fluke. Throw in a Phillies team that won't repeat last year's success, as mentioned last week, and you have a team set to return to October.

2. Mariners (88-74). They outperformed their Pythagorean record by nine games (as noted here), so you might expect a fallback. But with two new starting pitchers in Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva, and an emerging ace in Felix Hernandez, the M's are in pretty good shape to make some damage. Especially with the Angels' front of the rotation hurting, as noted last week.

3. Tigers (88-74). If your team went 88-74 last year, it looks like, you're going to get better. If you've been following the Tigers this spring, you know that they have neither a sixth starter nor a setup man, issues that normally don't bode well. But the Tigers have an outrageous lineup. Remember, not only did they acquire Miguel Cabrera, they also picked up Edgar Renteria, which allowed them to move Carlos Guillen to first base, improving them at two positions.

As for the pitching, I think Dontrelle Willis will thrive in this intense environment, after struggling with a miserable Florida team last year. And I'm putting faith in skipper Jim Leyland and general manager Dave Dombrowski to figure out the rest.

4. Dodgers (82-80). Yes, it's partly because I think Joe Torre is a better manager than Grady Little. But more than that, the Dodgers are a really talented team. To an already impressive group, they added Andruw Jones, who will be determined to rebound from last year's bad season with the Braves, and Japanese starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda. The bullpen is so deep that it's possible _ possible, not definite _ even Torre won't be able to overuse anyone.

One potentital pitfall here: Torre has to play Andre Ethier over Juan Pierre. Dodgers GM Ned Colletti's biggest mistake, by far, was to sign Pierre to a five-year contract after the 2006 season. That deal shouldn't justify playing time for Pierre when he's clearly the inferior player.

5. Blue Jays (83-79) and Rays (66-96). I'm cheating and declaring a tie here, because I feel so strongly about both of these clubs. The Jays have an outstanding pitching staff and will benefit from Scott Rolen's defense and intensity, once he returns from the disabled list (and this was a freak injury, not anything consistent with what has sidelined him in recent years). Franchise player Vernon Wells also wants to justify his huge contract, after a bad 2007.

As for the Rays, they've got to be better, if for no other reason that the Orioles are going to be much worse. But with their offseason pickups of Cliff Floyd, Matt Garza and Troy Percival, and the continuing maturation of their talented youngsters, they could even make a run at a .500 record.

One caveat: If Scott Kazmir's elbow problems are worse than they appear right now, then .500 is out of the question.

The last week of spring training feels like the last week of sleepaway camp, if you've ever been fortunate enough to experience that. Boxes are being packed, hearts are being broken and people are preparing to move on with their lives.

Of course, the stakes are a little higher among the adults at spring training. But the main problem teams face this time of year is figuring out which concerns are real and which will fade away and be laughed at, come September.

So let's throw in our two cents regarding the local clubs' issues, using two fictional characters and one real person as our measures. If the problem will blow over quickly, then we'll say, "This is NOTHING!!!" a tribute to Dustin Hoffman's character (Stanley Motss) from the brilliant "Wag the Dog." If it seems manageable but could get worse, we'll cite Mr. McNamee's memorable, "It is what it is" from last month's Congressional hearing. And if this looks like a full-blown crisis in the making, then we'll go to Jim Lovell, the real-life astronaut portrayed by Tom Hanks in "Apollo 13," who said, "Houston, we have a problem."

Mets starting pitching. Yesterday was a brutal day for Orlando Hernandez and Mike Pelfrey. El Duque, given his salary and his experience, deserves the first shot at this opening, and Pelfrey should go to Triple-A New Orleans and try to right himself. It shouldn't be forgotten, however, just how strong the Mets' front four of Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez and John Maine is. That will give the Mets a great deal of leeway in that fifth spot.

Also, if the Mets can't solve their fifth starter problem internally, then Freddy Garcia will be available in a few months, when he's healthy. And if they get really desperate prior to that, then Jeff Weaver and David Wells are still free agents, although Willie Randolph's personal experience with both from their collective Yankees days might not prompt positive recommendations from the managers.

Most of all, remember the Mets' competition: The Phillies and Braves are looking to Jamie Moyer and Tom Glavine to fill their third starters' roles. Both Perez and Maine are considerably better than that duo.

Analysis: This is NOTHING!!!

Mets offense. If Carlos Delgado declines beyond last year's bad numbers, then the Mets are going to have a real headache here. They are banking heavily on a revitalized Jose Reyes and rehabilitated Luis Castillo to get things going in the top two spots in the order. They do have two supreme offensive players in Carlos Beltran and David Wright _ and likely a third in Reyes _ so that shouldn't be forgotten.

Analysis: It is what it is.

Mets bullpen. It sounds like Duaner Sanchez won't be ready by next week, but that's not tragic, as long as he's good to go by the end of April. Bullpens are, by their nature, volatile. It seems like the Mets have coverage in their group, and with Santana around, their workload should lessen somewhat. But it wouldn't shock anyone if the bullpen proved a problem again.

Analysis: It is what it is.

Yankees starting pitching: Andy Pettitte's back didn't improve yesterday (second item in the story), and this is a bad sign in what has already been a foreboding season for Pettitte. Expecting a repeat of last year's numbers is probably unrealistic.

If you're a Yankees fan, you've got to hope that Chien-Ming Wang's horrible playoff performance was just an aberration; that Mike Mussina can turn back time a little bit; and that Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy mature and progress without any speed bumps.

In the American League, which is ridiculously more challenging than the NL _ and I'm going to keep pounding that point home, because that plays such an enormous role when comparing the Yankees to the Mets _ all of this is a lot to ask. I think Brian Cashman absolutely made the right call in not dealing for Santana, and that his master plan will pay off in the long run. But this year could bring some serious growing pains, most of all in the rotation. And yes, you can count on the Yankees to also be in the mix for Garcia.

Analysis: Houston, we have a problem.

I've spent the bulk of the last two weeks writing material for Newsday's baseball preview section, which will come out next week. Here's one item I felt worthy of a sneak preview:

Brian Cashman, in discussing his decision to pass on Johan Santana, offered this: "Johan Santana will win the Cy Young Award for the National League this year."

I agree with Cashman. Santana's smooth spring training continued last night, and the bet here is, after eight years of pitching in the fierce American League, Santana will regard the NL, and Shea Stadium, as a virtual vacation.

Okay, he probably won't enjoy pitching in Citizens Bank Park very much (although it'll help that the Phillies' two most feared hitters, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, are left-handed). But a steady diet filled with the Marlins and Nationals is quite the bunny slope, compared to lineups like the Tigers', Indians' and (in their better days) White Sox's. A league filled with hitters unfamiliar with Santana's stuff and patterns will be a godsend for the Mets' new ace.

Ideally, I would've held off all of my predictions until the preview comes out next week, but I couldn't think of any other blog subject.