Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

Who doesn't remember Steve Phillips, then the Mets' general manager, referring to Alex Rodriguez as a "twenty-four-and-one" player? It was seven years ago, the last time A-Rod was a free agent, and Phillips' attempt to smear A-Rod wound up hurting the Mets more than did the player. Everyone knew that the Mets simply didn't want to pay up for the game's best player.

Now A-Rod is a free agent once more, and as Newsday's David Lennon reports today, the Mets will at least contemplate the idea of pursuing the superstar.

That probably speaks more to the Mets' humillity, in light of their historic collapse, than anything else - "We can't rule out anything." But come on now, would any team have to rearrange more furniture than the Mets in order to make room for A-Rod? They have young All-Stars, signed to reasonable contracts, at both shortstop and third base.

It would be criminal to trade Jose Reyes, no matter how awful he looked toward the end of 2007. And really, David Wright, Mr. "I'd do anything for the team," deserves to keep his job at third base.

Remember, the Mets' offense perked up considerably after the All-Star break. There are enough bats here. The Mets need to figure out their pitching staff, if they are to move beyond The Collapse.

Yes, signing A-Rod would shift the spring-training attention from the past to the present, but that's not a good enough reason to mess with one of your few pillars. The Mets should pass on A-Rod once again, but this time because of solid, baseball reasons.

What do you think, Mets fans? Do you want A-Rod?

Loved the feedback to yesterday's item. A-Rod is a lightning rod, and we live in a free country where we're allowed to disagree.

Now, that said, I have to blow up two arguments made, in particular, by the A-Rod bashers:

1) "We won three World Series with Scott Brosius, so we can win without A-Rod."

Well, sure, the Yankees did win three titles with Brosius (pictured here in his Linfield College garb). But let's do some amateur statistical analysis:

Yankees Team ERAs

1998: 3.82
1999: 4.13
2000: 4.76
2001: 4.02

(Brosius left after '01, and A-Rod arrived in '04)

2004: 4.69
2005: 4.52
2006: 4.41
2007: 4.49

Notice any trends? Granted, that '00 season was insane; remember, those Yankees won just 87 games and still managed, somehow, to win it all. But otherwise, the Yankees didn't win three straight because they didn't have a superstar third baseman. I feel safe in saying that, if A-Rod were the Yankees' third baseman from '98 through '01, and Brosius from '04 to '07, the pinstriped title count still would've been 3-0, in favor of the earlier era.

2) "A-Rod is a loser because he never played in a World Series."

Puh-leeze. The Yankees wouldn't have sniffed October in 2005 or this year, especially, without MVP seasons from A-Rod. As discussed here, before, yes, he played well below his potential in postseason action from 2004 ALCS Game 5 through this past year, but so have many other Yankees in that time period.

A few other things:

I was frantically working on the Yankees' manager story last night, barely paying attention to World Series Game 4, when I received an Instant Message from Newsday teammate Jim Baumbach.

"Did you see Heyman's story about A-Rod opting out?" Jim wrote.

At that point, I'm pretty sure I looked like Large Marge from "Pee-Wee's Big Adventure."

But I recovered, and our Yankees beat writer Kat O'Brien did terrific work in getting Boras on the phone, herself, and now the baseball offseason looks dramatically different than it did 24 hours ago.

We'll analyze, soon enough, what the Yankees' options are. But today, let's salute A-Rod's agent, Scott Boras, who completely outwitted the Yankees' executives. Really, what Boras did was stand up to the Yankees' bullying ways, similar to how Clifford stood up to Moody in the underrated "My Bodyguard."

All along, the Yankees figured that A-Rod wouldn't leave, that he wouldn't find a better offer elsewhere (and to be fair, I agreed with them - but I don't get paid the big bucks to follow through on such hunches). So they figured they could issue threats, as Hank Steinbrenner did repeatedly (near the bottom of the story), without any accountability.

Now, the Yankees either have to let A-Rod go without even meeting with him in person to discuss the future, or they have to go back on their word and compete with everyone else for A-Rod's services. And the festivities to introduce their new manager have been completely upstaged by Boras and A-Rod.

Boras may strike you as cold-blooded, but he is nothing short of brilliant. If you hate the Yankees, you have to love him today. And, even better, if you hate bullies, then you, too, have to sign up for Boras Worship.

Man, is this winter going to be fascinating.

Barring massive weather delays that push this World Series into Saturday, Nov. 4, this will be the final Weekend Predictions until the start of the 2008 regular season. Thank you for not hating them.

1. The Rockies will pound the Red Sox, 9-2, in World Series Game 3 Saturday night at Coors Field, closing within 2-1 in games. Daisuke Matsuzaka will last just 2 2/3 innings, causing to lament that he didn't work harder between starts on his gyroball.

2. The Rockies will tie the series Sunday, in Game 4, with a 7-4 victory. Matt Holliday will atone for his Game 2 pickoff by slamming an eighth-inning homer off Jonathan Papelbon, then performing a Riverdance.

3. When Red Sox reliever Eric Gagne hits Colorado's Brad Hawpe with a pitch on Sunday night, Red Sox board director/head steroids investigator George Mitchell will feel compelled to deny he had anything to do with it.

4. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman will continue discussing and debating the club's huge decision with team ownership, until Cashman finally gives in and says: "All right, all right, we can get the calzones for lunch again."

5. Tony La Russa, who re-upped with the Cardinals this past week, will help the Cardinals find a new general manager by reaching into his past.

Jason, a college friend who grew up on Long Island, e-mailed me yesterday with this thought:

Imagine how different things would be if yanks traded for beckett and sox signed pavano...

Let's ignore the fact that Jason's not into capitalization in his e-mails, and see if we can figure out how the world of The Rivalry would have changed with that succession of events...

(Imagine your screen gets wavy now, like a flashback scene from a number of movies, like this one...)

December 12, 2004: The Red Sox announce their signing of Carl Pavano to a four-year, $41-million deal.

December 22, 2004: The Yankees, spurned by Pavano, sign Matt Clement to a three-year, $25-million contract.

June 26, 2005: Pavano, after a whiny, mediocre half-season, complains of shoulder soreness and shuts himself down. Manny Ramirez, admiring Pavano's laziness (just like Homer of Larry Burns in this episode), shuts himself down, as well.

July 31, 2005: With Clement pitching well for the Yankees, and no jobs available in the rotation, a crestfallen Aaron Small, buried at the Yankees' Triple-A Columbus affiliate, retires.

October 10, 2005: The Yankees, with Clement piching poorly by the end of the year, lose to the Angels in the AL Division Series. The Red Sox, with both Pavano and Ramirez on vacation, miss the playoffs altogether.

November 22, 2005: The Yankees, realizing they desperatly need young, power arms, trade Robinson Cano and Phil Hughes to the Marlins for Beckett and Mike Lowell, whom they spin off to San Diego as a salary dump. The Red Sox respond by trading Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez to Minnesota for Francisco Liriano.

April 5, 2006: Under the tutelage of Curt Schilling, Pavano gets his act together and pitches well for the Sox, allowing two runs in seven innings. Feeling as though he has met his goals, Pavano then exaggerates six injuries to keep him out for the rest of the year.

October 1, 2006: With Beckett struggling through the bulk of the season, and with starting second baseman Miguel Cairo dragging down the lineup, the Yankees miss the playoffs. Joe Torre is fired and replaced by Lou Piniella.

October 26, 2006: With Liriano _ who, at the Red Sox's insistence, sat out the World Baseball Classic _ thriving as the new, young ace, the Sox win their second World Series title in three years.

April 30, 2007: "I feel like I've finally overcome my past," Pavano says, after picking up his third victory in five starts. Pavano undergoes Tommy John surgery that night. And Liriano, gassed from his '06 heroics, soon joins Pavano on the Tommy John list.

September 27, 2007: Beckett, having learned from his first year in the American League, wraps up a brilliant, 20-8 regular season.

October 8, 2007: Red Sox Game 4 starter Roger Clemens, having signed back in May for an annual salary of $28 million, lasts just 2 1/3 innings due to an ailing hamstring, and the Red Sox lose to the Angels in the ALDS.

October 31, 2007: Beckett wins World Series MVP honors in leading the Yankees to their first Fall Classic title in seven years. Yankees fans name team president Randy Levine their Most Favorite Person Ever. Torre, part of Fox's broadcast team, calls it "an insult" that Beckett pitched better for Piniella than he did for him.

July 31, 2008: Pavano announces that he has purchased a new Porsche.

2009-2018: The Yankees and Beckett win three more World Series titles. The Red Sox and Liriano win two more.

July 28, 2024: Beckett enters the Hall of Fame with a Yankees cap on his plaque. Pavano enters a Burger King in West Palm Beach, FL and orders a Whopper.

Greetings from Boston, one of my favorite cities, as we prepare for World Series Game 1. My hotel is walking distance from Fenway Park, and we have perfect fall weather.

Some random thoughts:

My year as a baseball writer doesn't differ dramatically from yours' as a baseball fan. There are four distinct parts: Spring training, regular season, postseason and offseason. Each has its unique hours and rhythm.

This year, however, has differed. The postseason started 20 days ago, and I've been to four games - the entire American League Division Series between the Yankees and Indians. I didn't even attend the Yankees' pre-series workout at Jacobs Field, because I was busy tying up loose ends in our Mets' "bloody aftermath" coverage.

From one bloody aftermath to another, I spent the past two weeks covering the Yankees from home, and as you know, that's not yet wrapped up. But the World Series is a must-attend industry event, and hey, it'll be nice to get outside and see some baseball, even if it requires packing my heavy fall jacket.

My question goes to you Mets and Yankees fans out there. Will you watch this World Series? Or have you already begun your winter hibernations? It should be a good series, both in terms of talent and storylines. But I'd understand if you Mets fans are wondering how you're going to upgrade your pitching staff, and if you Yankees fans are wondering what the team is going to look like on Opening Day.

So let me know whether you'll watch. Bud Selig wants to know, too. He might even be willing to let you see an early copy of The Mitchell Report if you watch.

While taking a quick break from Yankees coverage yesterday, I attended the birthday party of my son's friend, Jonah. There, as we gorged ourselves on pizza and cake, another dad engaged me by asking this question:

"How much do you buy into the 'chemistry' thing with the Yankees, going from winning all of those World Series to all of those postseason disappointments?"

Short answer, as I tried to avoid talking with food in my mouth: "I'm still not sure."

How much of the 1996-2001 Yankees was about "character and chemistry," and how much was about great pitching and defense and timely hitting? That 2001 ALDS comeback against the A's, after losing the first two games, at home, was remarkable. But was that about Paul O'Neill's and Tino Martinez's resilience? Or was it about Mike Mussina, at the peak of his career, pitching a phenomenal Game 3 in Oakland, and Derek Jeter pulling off the play of a lifetime, and momentum taking the Yankees from there?

Look at it this way: When did the Yankees come closest to winning it all after O'Neill's retirement? 2003, when they pitched the best. The remarkable Game 7 comeback occurred because Mussina relieved Roger Clemens and shut down the Red Sox.

Now, at the same time, I can't sit here and completely discount character. Not when no one on the '04 club could come up with a big hit in those final two and a half games, and especially not in '06, when the Yankees came apart like a cheap sweater _ although, again, the pitching was terrible, too.

Look at what the Red Sox just did last night (and thanks to Reuters and the NY Times web site for the photo). Does that speak to their character? Or does it speak to the fact that three talented starting pitchers _ Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling and Daisuke Matsuzaka _ won three straight game?

What's your take? How much of the Yankees' disappointing postseason results of the last six years (I don't count 2001 as a disappointment) can be blamed on chemistry?

Here's Yankees president Randy Levine, telling reporters, "Sorry, I'd love to stay and chat, but I've gotta make a low-ball offer to Joe Torre, and then I'm gonna read Weekend Predictions!"

1. The Red Sox will defeat the Indians, 8-2, Saturday night in ALCS Game 6, tying the series at three games apiece. Curt Schilling will pitch well despite spilling ketchup on his sock during a pre-game snack.

2. The Indians will survive a thrilling Game 7, defeating the Red Sox, 5-4, to advance to the World Series for the right to take on the Rockies. Manny Ramirez, who will homer and drive home two runs, will shrug afterwards and say, "It's not the end of the world. Oh, and also, trade me."

3. The Rockies, resting after their NLCS sweep of the Diamondbacks, will somehow be credited with two more victories during their down time. They're just that hot right now.

4. Lie-detector repairmen and -women will be extremely busy, as all the machines blew up on Thursday when Levine said that he considered Torre, his nemesis, to be a "great person."

5. The Yankees will surprisingly let Brian Cashman hire Torre's replacement, but Cashman's selection will not be surprising. That's right, Marty Miller.