Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

The Mets were a confident team in spring training, and I admittedly didn't get it. Where was their pitching going to come from? What about the age in their lineup? And I loved what the Phillies had done over the winter, adding Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton to an already promising starting rotation. So in Newsday's baseball preview section, I predicted the Phillies to win the NL East and the Mets to finish out of the playofs.

Across the Triborough Bridge, meanwhile, I thought Brian Cashman had taken huge risks by relying so heavily on Kei Igawa and Carl Pavano, not to mention the notion that Andy Pettitte could thrive back in the AL. But I also thought the Yankees' lineup was dominant, and that Mariano Rivera would produce a typical season. So I tabbed the Yankees as the AL wild card, with the strengthened Red Sox taking the AL East.

I didn't look too smart for a good part of the year, as it looked like I underestimated the Mets and overestimated the Yankees, and some of you rightfully questioned me here, and here, and here, and here. But today, _ thanks more to Kyle Kendrick and Kyle Lohse than Eaton and Garcia _ I appear not as much of a moron, an appearance I'm confident will dissipate as soon as my World Series picks each go down in three first-round games.

A couple of thoughts, though, in this rare moment when I have hand, to borrow an expression from this "Seinfeld" episode.

1) With revenue sharing and the luxury tax has come more parity than ever. That means more in-season turnarounds than ever. The Yankees, Phillies, Cubs and Rockies all emerged from deep holes. The Tigers, Mets and Brewers all blew big leads. So we all need to stop the common, early-season declarations of a team being "in it for sure" or "dead." It doesn't take much for a team to go from the top to home for October.

2) The sabermatricians know what they're talking about. I pointed out the Yankees' good Pythagorean record early on in the season, when they were underachieving, as evidence that they would turn things around. Likewise, remember the Yankees' horrible record in one-run games at the beginning of the year? At one point, they were 4-12 in such games. They wound up 18-21, a result partly of Joba Chamberlain's arrival, partly of better play _ and partly because sometimes luck goes your way, and sometimes it doesnt.

Tomorrow, once we have our 8th playoff team, I'll go over all of my preseason predictions and shred myself accordingly for the myriad awful picks (like a Tigers-Giants World Series, for instance).

1. The Mets, in their last stand of a mind-blowing month, will win two of three games from the Marlins. But they'll need some help. In following the advice of Billy Wagner (middle of this story), Willie Randolph will call upon Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Jesse Orosco and Skip Lockwood to get the final eight outs of Sunday's game.

2. Meanwhile, down in Philadelphia, the Phillies will take two of three from the Nationals, setting up a Mets-Phillies playoff game on Monday (which the Phillies will win). The Phillies' overworked bullpen will contribute 3 1/3 innings on Sunday, then drive north and help the Eagles with their kickoff coverage.

3. At Camden Yards, the Yankees will take two of three games over the Orioles as they prepare for the playoffs. But in a revolution of sorts, the rookies will force the veterans to leave Baltimore dressed up as the characters from "Hairspray."

4. In Boston, meanwhile, the Red Sox will go 1-2 in their three remaining games against the Twins, clinching the AL East and relegating the Yankees to wild-card status. Manny Ramirez will commemorate the Sox's first division title since 1995 by demanding a trade. The Indians will take two of three from the Royals, giving Cleveland the top seed, so the AL playoffs will be Indians (1) vs. Yankees (4) and Red Sox (2) vs. Angels (3).

5. The Brewers, Diamondbacks and Padres will secure the NL's other three playoff spots, but Bud Selig, deploying common sense, will announce, "I'm sorry, we can't let the world see how awful the National League is," and cancel the NL postseason. The winner of the ALCS, Selig will say, will be baseball's champions.

This gentleman on the right is Bill Giles, the Phillies' chairman and the honorary National League president. That title's few responsibilities include attending the All-Star Game every year and talking trash with his AL counterpart, Jackie Autry. It's all harmless.

But if Jackie Autry wanted to, she could call Giles right now and say, "Yo, Bill, your league is a joke!"

We've got just four days remaining in the regular season, and not a single NL team has clinched a spot in the playoffs. That is remarkable, especially when you consider that the Yankees' victory last night left the AL to sort out only its seedings.

Mets and Phillies for the NL East, Cubs and Brewers for the NL Central, Diamondbacks, Padres and Rockies for the NL West. Everyone besides the Cubs and Brewers (not to mention the Braves, the longest of longshots) for the NL wild card.

The talent levels are just awful; compare the Diamondbacks, who have the NL's best record, with the Yankees, who will likely own the AL's fourth and last seed, and then remember that the Yankees swept the Diamondbacks in a three-game series, back in June.

But, as I was discussing with a few of my fellow scribes last night at Shea Stadium, who cares? This is awesome, that we have so much to follow in these final days. That we have a decent chance of seeing a one-game playoff Monday for something. That rich teams and poor teams alike are contending. This is the result of Good Bud Selig _ revenue-sharing and the wild card _ not to be confused with his evil twin, Bad Bud Selig.

There are too many different scenarios to anticipate, so we'll keep watching, tallying the results and re-calibrating the odds. This, indeed, is a great time for baseball.

Well, unless you're a Mets fan.

When Newsday bigwig Jeff Weinberg e-mailed me last night, asking for a blog topic that he could plug in today's newspaper, the Yankees were leading the Devil Rays, 5-0. It seemed a natural time to disucss the Yankees' postsesaon roster. Alas, it's not so natural now, but it still works, as the game most certainly will factor into Joe Torre's and Brian Cashman's thinking on certain players.

Most obviously, if any of you out there are still Brian Bruney fans, the party ended last night.

So even though the Yankees still need one more victory (or a Tigers loss) to seal an October invitation, let's project their 25-man roster, and humbly offer our suggestions.

Catchers (2): Jose Molina, Jorge Posada. That was easy.

Infielders (5): Wilson Betemit, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Doug Mientkiewicz, Alex Rodriguez. No dilemmas there, either.

Outfielders (6): Bobby Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Shelley Duncan, Hideki Matsui, Bronson Sardinha.

Designated Hitter (1): Jason Giambi.

This might be the best, most versatile group of position players the Yankees have had in quite some time. With Cabrera in centerfield and Mientkiewicz, it's the best defensively since a non-awful Bernie Williams and Tino Martinez manned those positions in the late 1990s.

Pitchers (11): Joba Chamberlain, Roger Clemens, Kyle Farnsworth, Phil Hughes, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Jose Veras, Ron Villone, Luis Vizcaino, Chien-Ming Wang.

Wow. I admit, until I counted, I didn't realize how uninspiring the Yankees' bullpen options were. I had only nine automatics (excluding Veras and Villone), and in an ideal world, I'd tell Farnsworth that he wasn't wanted.

Admittedly, I have already changed this composition once this morning on the blog, adding pinch runner Sardinha and subtracting Chris Britton, after reading of Joe Torre's interest in adding a pinch runner. That makes sense. Britton is no great loss.

With that in mind, I chose Veras because he has pitched pretty good lately _ in particular, he has held lefty hitters to one hit in 10 at-bats _ and Villone because he's a somewhat reliable veteran.

Edwar Ramirez gives you a different "look" with his changeup, I realize, but "look" at his recent numbers. Brutal. Bruney can't throw the ball over the plate to save his life, and his personality, during this year of adversity _ sour, uninterested in taking accountability for his performance _ explains why the Diamondbacks got rid of him last year for nothing.

Britton has been nothing special. Kei Igawa is the only other real option, and based on his minor-league numbers, I'm not 100 percent ready to write him off for the future. But the Yankees should quit while they're ahead with Igawa, pack him in ice and try again in 2008.

The Yankees essentially mailed it in yesterday, in their final regular-season home game, and they'll pay no real price for it. When the Yankees wind up falling short of the AL East title, settling for the wild card, they won't have the homefield advantage in the playoffs. Big whoop.

Baseball absolutely needs to create a greater disincentive for teams to get the wild card, as opposed to the division crown. At the moment, neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox possesses major motivation to go hard after the division. The rivals are better off resting up, letting the chips fall where they may and going full-bore next week.

At least one wild-card team has competed in the past five World Series. That's too frequent for my liking.

So what should be done? There are two ideas I like the best. One has been floated repeatedly by Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Here is his latest argument in favor of it. The gist: Each league adds one more wild-card team, and then the postseason kicks off with a best-of-3 series between the two wild-card teams. This gives the three division winners three days to rest, and puts the wild-card survivor at a significant disadvantage when it enters the round of four.

Here's another one I like, borrowed from Japan's Pacific League: In the Division Series, the wild-card entry has to win four games, while the top seed has to win only three. So if the Yankees played the Indians, for instance, the Yankees would be required to win four games before Cleveland took three. Talk about a disincentive to be the wild card - and motivation for teams to fight for the top seed. For this to work, teams in the same division would have to play each other if they are the one and four seed, respecitvely.

So what do you think? Do you like Joel's idea? Or the Japanese idea? Or are you perfectly content with the status quo?

Amazing, isn't it? The Mets actually lost a game to the Phillies within the last week, but now, after three straight victories over Florida, it feels as though their crisis has passed. The Yankees, meanwhile, gained three games on the Red Sox in the AL East, but with the Tigers fading away from the AL wild-card chase, only silly people are going to get fired up over a mildly relevant seeding.

The tension is largely over for our New York locals, as it appears we'll have our second straight double-entry into the postseason. So here are 10 issues that need to be resolved, locally and nationally, over the next seven weeks - in no particular order.

1. Can Orlando Hernandez help the Mets in the postseason? El Duque hasn't pitched in 12 days due to a bunion on his right foot.

2. Can Roger Clemens help the Yankees in the postseason? The Rocket missed time with an ailing right elbow, and in the past week, he has been pushed back twice due to a left hamstring problem.

3. Do the Phillies have another run in them? Not on the Mets, but on the reeling Padres, whom they trail by just a half-game (one in the loss column) for the NL wild card. It won't be easy for the Phils, not with the Braves at Citizens Bank Park for three games starting tomorrow.

4. Okay, the seeding issues do matter some. Will the Mets pass the Diamondbacks for homefield advantage throughout the NL playoffs? Can the Yankees overtake the Red Sox and even gain the top seed? Can the Yankees avoid playing their nemeses, the Angels, in the first round?

5. NL MVP: Matt Holliday vs. Jimmy Rollins vs. David Wright. The final week could be a factor.

6. AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett vs. C.C. Sabathia. At this point, both will be preparing for the playoffs, but stats are stats.

7. NL Manager of the Year. Does Arizona's Bob Melvin have it wrapped up, or should the Phillies' Charlie Manuel get it if his pitching-deprived club somehow reaches the postseason?

8. The Cubs. It'll be fun to see them clinch and drown Lou Piniella in champagne, and prepare to end the Curse of the Billy Goat.

9. Manager farewells. Buddy Bell already knows he's gone, while Pittsburgh's Jim Tracy figures to be out of work. How about Seattle's John McLaren? Cincinnati's Pete Mackanin? And, most intriguingly, will impending free agent Tony La Russa shop around, return to the Cardinals or take his first breather after 29 straight years of managing?

10. Player farewells. This'll be it for Long Island's own Craig Biggio. What about Barry Bonds? Mike Piazza? David Wells? I'd bet on seeing Piazza and Wells in spring training next year, still not so sure about Bonds.

In the proud tradition of Barry Bonds, I'm using a photo of my child (and me, and Paws) as a shield against any critics of my predictions.

1. The Mets, who seem cursed at the moment, will drop two of their three remaining games to the Marlins at Dolphin Stadium. With stress continuing to mount _ Paul Lo Duca, Marlon Anderson and Lastings Milledge have all been ejected in the past week _ umpires will feel compelled to toss out, at different junctures, Willie Randolph, pitching coach Rick Peterson, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Tom Glavine, Willie Collazzo, bullpen catcher Dave Racianello and former clubhouse attendant Kirk Radomski.

2. In Washington, meanwhile, the Phillies will win two of three over the Nationals, closing within a half-game (one in the loss column) of the Mets. Jimmy Rollins, whose NL MVP candidacy improves by the day, will proclaim, "We're the team to beat. But it sure would be nice if one of our starting pitchers could go, like, six innings."

3. The Yankees, a playoff spot virtually clinched, will stumble, dropping two of three to the spoiler Blue Jays. Saturday's starter Ian Kennedy, who is planning a wedding in addition to helping the Yankees, will capitalize on the long, eight-run, bottom of the fourth inning, and elope.

UPDATE: Reader Jeff points out that it's a four-game series, so let's make it a 2-2 split. And with Kennedy scratched from his start, and Roger Clemens taking his place, I'll predict that Clemens will not elope during the game. Don't think the current Mrs. Rocket, Debbie, would approve.

UPDATE #2: Now Clemens has been scratched for Phil Hughes. I give up.

4. In Tampa Bay, meanwhile, the Red Sox will sweep the Devil Rays, increasing their AL East lead to 3 1/2 games and stopping the somewhat misguided talk of 1978 (the wild card didn't exist back then, you know). Setup man Eric Gagne, who has been nothing short of a fiasco since coming aboard, will miss the team bus, hop in a cab, tell the driver, "Take me to the baseball stadium," and wind up in an ironically wrong place.

5. The Brewers will win two of the next three in Atlanta, while the Cubs will take two of three against the Pirates at home, keeping Milwaukee 1 1/2 games (one in the loss column) behind. The Brewers, having feasted on Houston's young pitchers this past week, will wonder, "Who are these guys Hudson and Smoltz?"

You'd be hard-pressed to argue that the Yankees "miss" Bernie Williams on the field, based on how their season has transpired. GM Brian Cashman made the right call last winter when he declined to offer the ultra-popular outfielder a guaranteed contract.

But do the Yankees miss Bernie Williams' class, his quiet dignity? No question, as Joe Torre would say.

Shed no tears for Bernie, however; he's doing just fine. Yesterday, I had the opportunity to watch Bernie rehearse for his biggest musical gig to date. Accompanied by a phenomenal, eight-piece band, including saxophonist Riche Cannata (who has worked with Billy Joel), Bernie will perform five original songs tomorrow night and then do one song together with Jose Feliciano. Here are the details, if you're interested in attending.

I wrote a story about Bernie in today's Newsday, but, to steal a trick from all-world blogger Neil Best, I wanted to share some more thoughts from Bernie for which I didn't have room in the story.

Ramdom thoughts: