Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

1. The Mets, reeling after their miserable performance in Philadelphia, will drop two of three to the Braves in Atlanta. They'll finally win on Sunday, by virtue of Carlos Beltran's swinging bunt that somehow stays fair, a meltdown by Braves closer Rafael Soriano and a game-ending interference call on the Braves' Jeff Francoeur.

2. The Yankees will take two of three games from the Devil Rays, continuing their surge toward the American League wild card. Ian Kennedy, described by some scouts as a young Mike Mussina, will pitch poorly Saturday, in his major-league debut, and lose. Afterwards, he will ask reporters, defiantly, "Who are they going to replace me with?"

3. The Phillies, coming off their incredible, four-game sweep of the Mets, will take two of three games from the Marlins in Miami. Pat Burrell, having gone deep four times in four days against the Mets, will not hit a ball out of the infield.

4. The free-falling Mariners will drop two of three games to the Blue Jays, so they'll enter next weekend's Yankees series down two games (one in the loss column) in the American League wild-card standings. Just for the heck of it, Ichiro Suzuki will say, "If I ever saw myself saying I'm excited going to New York, I'd punch myself in the face, because I'm lying. Also, Broadway plays are overrated."

5. Webster's Dictionary will publish a special, mid-year edition to include "The Joba Rules."

A pair of rookie right-handers, both first-round picks in recent amateur drafts, both Scott Boras clients, will take the mound Saturday for the two New York teams. The Yankees and Mets, who for many years preferred the company of veterans, will look to Ian Kennedy and Mike Pelfrey, respectively, to deliver in important outings _ at home against Tampa Bay for Kennedy, and at Atlanta for Pelfrey.

Kennedy (pictured here in his USC jersey) owns more buzz now, because Saturday will mark his major-league debut and because he is replacing a stunningly inept Mike Mussina. But if the events of the past three days continue, on both sides of the East River, then it's Pelfrey who could be facing more pressure.

When the Yankees drafted Kennedy with their first pick last year, a scout from another team described the right-hander as "a very poor man's Mike Mussina." Ironic, eh? Kennedy, as you've probably heard _ and as he himself said, in a Wednesday interview with Newsday's enterprising, tech-savvy Jim Baumbach _ is a "command guy." He doesn't light up the radar gun like his fellow young pinstriper Joba Chamberlain, or even Phil Hughes, but he seems to know what he's doing out there, with a fastball that hits about 90 mph, a curveball and a changeup. A second scout, with whom I spoke this past week, spoke admiringly of Kennedy and his ability to run a game.

The Mets' 2005 first-round pick Pelfrey, you already know about, and his minor-league numbers are only so-so, after his 0-7, 5.92 showing with the Mets. He received attention for his first-inning ineptitude, yet if you look at his statistical breakdown, you'll see that his worst stretch this year came not in pitches 1 through 15, but pitches 45 through 60. So Pelfrey simply has to improve his all-around effort from his earlier outings. We'll see.

This has been a banner year for the Yankees' farm system, what with the contributions from Chamberlain, Hughes and the unlikely Shelley Duncan _ and even Tyler Clippard contributed a couple of good outings, in a season when they have needed every single victory. You can rip Yankees general manager Brian Cashman for many individual moves, among them the signings of Kyle Farnsworth and Kei Igawa and (for the moment) the re-signing of Mussina, but his overall philosophy, of a greater reliance on internal development, is working splendidly.

On the Mets' side, the story isn't as sweet, not with Pelfrey flaming out after his promising spring training and Philip Humber showing little before the last couple of weeks. But Carlos Gomez and Lastings Milledge have provided energy and potential, and Joe Smith contributed plenty before presumably tiring. Like Cashman, Mets GM Omar Minaya wants more of an internal presence on the Mets, and he, too, is headed the right way.

If you think back to last winter, both teams played it conservatively in the free-agent market, refusing to shell out huge dollars for the Jeff Suppans and Barry Zitos of the world. The result of those approaches is their reliance on rookies now, in the heat of the pennant race. I say that's an exciting change.

Once, a baseball held value in my life. On May 23, 1987 (thanks to the amazing Retrosheet for nailing down the date), Lee Mazzilli pinch hit for Ron Darling in the eighth inning and, before striking out against Bob Welch, hit a foul ball straight back, into Shea Stadium's mezzanine level. Armed with a Robin Yount model glove, I caught that ball. My only live-action foul ball as a fan.

I took it with me to college, and that turned out to be a mistake. During my sophomore year, two of my roommates borrowed the ball for a catch. They somehow managed to lose it under a bush, or something stupid like that. I was really angry, for a long time.

So I can appreciate having an emotional attachment to inanimate objects. What I can't understand, however, is why people would pay huge amounts of money for one of Barry Bonds' milestone home run balls.

As this story details, electronic bidding began Tuesday for Bonds' 755th and 756th home run balls, with the price for the latter (which broke Hank Aaron's record) starting at $100,000.

Even if I were incredibly rich, I just can't envision having the desire to shell out six figures for such a baseball. Especially for the Bonds homer. Yes, I covered Bonds' 756th and didn't find it such an awful experience. I am at peace with what he accomplished, and how he did it. But that doesn't mean I'd want to own the ball that Queens' Matt Murphy commandeered at AT&T Park earlier this month.

So help me out. Am I crazy? Would you be willing to meet the expected price of $500,000, if money were no issue for you? Or are you with me on this one?

Prior to Monday night's Mets-Phillies game at Citizens Bank Park, I was conversing with Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger about some people's fascinations with the issue, "Which team has suffered more?"

We agreed that it was a silly subject, that good teams overcame multiple injuries with organizational depth and good, old-fashioned resilience. Nevertheless, given that we are part of a silly species, Dan and I wound up mentally tallying the Mets' injuries against the Phillies' injuries. We decided that the Phillies easily won the injury contest if you disregarded Pedro Martinez _ since the Mets planned for 2007 knowing that Pedro would miss the bulk of the season _ and, no shock, it was a lot closer if you decided that you coudln't simply ignore Pedro and his shoulder surgery, since that caused the Mets to spend more time and effort on their starting rotation both last winter and this current season.

I wanted to probe it further, however, so I went back to VORP, Baseball Prospectus' Value Over Replacement Player. This seemed apropos, since the injured players did have their roles filled by the aforementioned replacement players.

By combining the injured players' 2006 VORPs with the multiplication and division skills I perfected in Mrs. Flood's fourth-grade math class, I counted the number of games missed (so far) by each player, then calculated the percentage of their VORP on which a team missed out by having said player on the disabled list. Here's what I came up with - and please, I know this is imperfect. For instance, as you'll see Oliver Perez actually compiled a negative VORP last year, which means he was worse than a replacement player. But the same goes for the Phillies' young outfielder Michael Bourn, so hopefully, things balance out:

Mets
Moises Alou - 66 games missed - 27.9 VORP in '06 - lost out on 11.4 VORP
Carlos Beltran - 15 games missed - 68.5 VORP in '06 - lost out on 6.3 VORP
Ramon Castro - 13 games missed - 1.0 VORP in '06 - lost out on .08 VORP
Endy Chavez - 73 games missed - 15.3 VORP in '06 - lost out on 6.9 VORP
Damion Easley - 8 games missed - 2.4 VORP in '06 - lost out on .08 VORP
Carlos Gomez - 47 games missed - 6.8 projected VORP in '07* - lost out on 2.0 VORP
Shawn Green - 13 games missed - 9.0 VORP in '06 - lost out on .7 VORP
Orlando Hernandez - 25 games missed - 19.0 VORP in '06 - lost out on 2.9 VORP
Paul Lo Duca - 14 games missed - 27.2 VORP in '06 - lost out on 2.3 VORP
Pedro Martinez - 130 games missed - 15.4 VORP in '06 - lost out on 12.4 VORP
Oliver Perez - 14 games missed - -14.3 VORP - gained 1.2 VORP
Duaner Sanchez - 130 games missed - 17.7 VORP in '06 - lost out on 14.2 VORP
Jorge Sosa - 12 games missed - .2.7 VORP in '06 - lost out on .2 VORP
Jose Valentin - 68 games missed - 23.6 VORP in '06 - lost out on 9.9 VORP
Dave Williams - 86 games missed - -5.4 VORP in '06 - gained 2.9 VORP

Total: Lost out on 61.96 VORP

*Since Gomez didn't spend any time in the major leagues in 2006, I felt more comfortable using BP's projected '07 VORP for the Mets, rather than his '06 VORP (15.0) for Double-A Binghamton.

Phillies
Rod Barajas - missed 22 games - .6 VORP in '06 - lost out on .08 VORP
Michael Bourn - missed 25 games - -2.4 VORP in '06 - gained .4 VORP
Chris Coste - missed 5 games - 16.5 VORP in '06 - lost out on .5 VORP
Adam Eaton - missed 14 games - 6.4 VORP in '06 - lost out on .6 VORP
Freddy Garcia - missed 80 games - 32.3 VORP in '06 - lost out on 16.0 VORP
Tom Gordon - missed 65 games - 17.1 VORP in '06 - lost out on 6.9 VORP
Cole Hamels - missed 10 games - 23.1 VORP in '06 - lost out on 1.4 VORP
Ryan Howard - missed 13 games - 81.5 VORP in '06 - lost out on 6.5 VORP
Jon Lieber - missed 63 games - 13.6 VORP in '06 - lost out on 5.3 VORP
Ryan Madson - missed 26 games - -1.0 VORP in '06 - gained .2 VORP
Brett Myers - missed 54 games - 40.7 VORP in '06 - lost out on 13.6 VORP
Francisco Rosario - missed 63 games - -.1 VORP in '06 - gained .04 VORP
Chase Utley - missed 29 games - 65.2 VORP in '06 - lost out on 11.7 VORP
Shane Victorino - missed 19 games - 12.1 VORP in '06 - lost out on 1.4 VORP
Jayson Werth* - missed 27 games - 3.4 VORP in '05* - lost out on .6 VORP

Total: Lost out on 63.94 VORP

*Werth missed the entire 2006 season with a left wrist injury, so I used his '05 figure.

Pretty close, eh? But Pedro really does make the difference, mathematically. Without him in the equation, it's not close.

Hope that all of you had a good week. I relaxed and had fun with the family, although some interesting weather impacted the activities. The Jersey Shore house that we rented had neither SNY nor YES, so I was limited to watching highlights on ESPN.

It's a good week to get back to work, when you look at the schedule. Wow. Mets-Phillies, starting tonight. Red Sox-Yankees, starting Tuesday, after the Yankees try to salvage a series split with the Tigers tonight. Also starting tonight: Twins-Indians, Angels-Mariners ahd Diamondbacks-Padres. And Brewers-Cubs kicks off Tuesday.

So the first-place team will play the second-place team in five of the six divisions, and in the sixth, the AL Central, the first-place team (Ceveland) will play the surging third-place team (Twins).

By Friday, therefore, we'll have a considerably better idea of what this September has in store for us. In the Mets' case, they can essentially clinch the NL East this week with strong showings against the Phillies and, next weekend, the Braves. Both contenders really need to sweep the Mets; otherwise, they'd have to bank on a horrid Mets September, or just focus their efforts on the NL wild card.

The Yankees could sweep the Red Sox, meanwhile, and still be pretty far out of AL East contention. It's just not happening for them. It's wild card or bust, and the real reason they could use a sweep of the Bosox is because every victory will gain ground on either the Mariners or Angels, who lead Seattle by only two games. Wouldn't it be funny if the Mariners took control of the AL West, and the Yankees wound up fighting their nemesis Angels for the wild card? It would be 1995 redux.

My predictions: Phillies take three of four, Yankees take two of three (after Mike Mussina's victorious rebound effort tonight in Detroit), Angels sweep the Mariners in three, Diamondbacks and Padres split their four-game set and the Brewers wake up and win two of three from the Cubs.

1. The Mets, still not playing like their 2006 selves, will drop two of three to the Nationals at RFK Stadium. While in our nation's capital, noted left-winger Carlos Delgado will ofer encouraging words to his political opposite Karl Rove, saying, "Hey, buddy, we all go through slumps."

2. The Yankees will recover from their funk by taking two of three from the Tigers, evening the four-game series at 2-2. As usual, though, the slumping Mariano Rivera won't get as much rest as promised. He'll get saves Friday and Sunday, and on Saturday, as part of Military Appreciation Day, Joe Torre will ask him to join the Army's Golden Knights Parachute Team.

3. The suddenly relevant Cardinals will sweep the Cubs at Wrigley Field, prompting a frustrated Cubs manager Lou Piniella to moan, "The NL Central is so bad, my Devil Rays teams could've won it!"

4. Not unlike the conclusion to this episode of "Gilligan's Island," the Mariners will wake up Friday and remember they're not as talented as they thought, and subsequently get swept by the White Sox.

5. Bud Selig, upset over the Tigers' lucrative bonus paid to their first-round pick, will also come down on the Mets for sending Rick Peterson to see Pedo Martinez on Monday ("Don't you realize how much airfare costs nowadays?!"), on the Yankees for overpaying the YMCA Dancers ("That song was played out 25 years ago!!") and the Arizona Diamondbacks for the overuse of their retractable roof ("It's not that hot out! People like to sweat!")

***
I won't be at any baseball games next week. Instead, I'll be at a super-secret location with my family, recharging the proverbial batteries for the stretch drive of the pennant race. Have a great week, and I'll see you again on Monday, August 27.

Do you remember when the Yankees signed Tim Raines for the 1996 season? It seemed extraneous at the time, to borrow a line from this movie, and when Raines went on the disabled list from May 22 through August 16, it appeared that George Steinbrenner had handed out a gift to his buddy, Tom Reich, who was Raines' agent.

But when Raines returned from oblivion, he provided some much needed life to a team that saw its AL East lead over Baltimore whittling away. That September, as he turned 37, he compiled an astonishing .412 on-base percentage and .595 slugging percentage. You could argue that the Yankees wouldn't have held on for the division without Raines' help.

Which brings us to Moises Alou and the 2007 Mets. As Alou missed two and a half months with a left quad injury, and as the Mets struggled offensively, the leftfielder stood out as a flop, an $8.5 million waste by Mets GM Omar Minaya. In the last week, however, Alou has raked, providing the big hit in the club's one victory over Atlanta last week and leading the way in the club's current, three-game winning streak.

If the Mets hold on against the nagging Braves and Phillies here in the final six weeks, Alou might very well be a key reason. And if that occurs, Mets fans won't care for a minute how abandoned they felt by Alou, just as Yankees fans quickly forgave "Rock" Raines for his extended disappearance.

This is an interesting week for the NL East contenders, as the Mets, Braves and Phillies wrap up series Thursday against the three NL cellar-dwellers - respectively, the Pirates, Giants and Nationals. The Phillies have split the first two against pesky Washington, and because the Mets and Braves have clobbered the lifeless Pirates and Giants, Charlie Manuel's group has actually lost ground.

If Alou can keep driving the Mets' offense, it's going to be awfully difficult for either the Braves or the Phillies to overcome the defending champs.

Sad news Tuesday, as you surely know by now. Phil Rizzuto passed away late Monday night at the age of 89.

Some of you will remember "The Scooter" most for his brilliant play as the Yankees shortstop, while others know only his hilarious persona as a Yankees broadcaster; I'm in the latter group. But when I heard about Rizzuto's death on Tuesday, I immediately reached out to two people _ one a personal contact, one a professional one _ who could shed light on the sort of man Rizzuto really was.

Scott Wilson is an editor at foxsports.com. He and I grew up as next-door neighbors in Edison, New Jersey. In early 1979, prior to spring training, my father's boss was involved in a Harlem Wizards charity game that would feature several big-name guests, among them Yankees players Chris Chambliss and Mickey Rivers, and Rizzuto, too. But Rizzuto needed a ride to the event, which was in Brooklyn, I believe. So Scott's dad, Jerry, agreed to pick up Rizzuto in Hillside, NJ, about 25 minutes from Edison, and take him to the venue, along with Scott's mom, Karen, and younger brother, Keith.

Here's what Scott recalls:

We pulled up to the Rizzuto home in Hillside, N.J. Our dad decided it'd be funny if he sent Keith and I up to the door to ring the bell alone. So we rang the door, and Phil answered, greeted us, invited us in and closed the door behind us. Of course, Mom and Dad quickly came to join us, and he took us into his trophy room. It was about 28 years ago, so I don't remember the details, but there was a lot of hardware in a glass case -- World Series and MVP trophies, milestone baseballs, gloves... Very impressive. We took pictures with him outside his house, too. Phil couldn't have been nicer.

So we eventually leave to take him to Brooklyn for the charity basketball game. We pile into our faded yellow Chevy Caprice Classic, letting Phil ride shotgun with Dad while Mom squeezed into the back seat with Keith and me. Dad and Phil were talking the whole time...about that area of Jersey (Dad grew up in nearby Newark)...about baseball...about other stuff I can't recall.

The most vivid memory of the ride to the game is arriving at the toll booth for the Verrazano Bridge. Phil took a look at the price of the toll and said, "Holy cow! The toll is that high now?!" Mom squeezed my arm, as if to say, "Oh my God! Phil Rizzuto said, 'Holy cow!' in our car!"

From that day on, whenever we heard Phil's voice during a game or saw him on a Money Store commercial, we jokingly called him "Uncle Phil."

***
Mike Vassallo is the director of media relations for the Brewers. I got to know him when he worked for the Yankees' media relations department in the late '90s. Here is his Scooter story:

In June of 1995, I was working a summer job at Pfizer, going into my junior year as a broadcasting major at SUNY Oswego. One night, I had tickets to a Yankees game and was fortunate enough to meet Phil Rizzuto through a gentleman named Andy, who worked days at Pfizer and nights at Yankee Stadium, greeting people outside the elevator near the Yankee offices. On this night, I expected nothing more than to meet Phil Rizzuto, get him to sign my baseball and watch the game with my friend who was meeting me at the ballpark. Little did I know that I would be in the right place at the right time and have my career take off.

Upon signing my baseball, Phil proceeded to say to Andy, “My assistant never shows up anymore. I think I’m gonna have to get a new one.” Within half a second, I reacted like a kid in school with my arm straight up in the air saying, “I’ll do it for free!” After some coaxing from Andy, Phil agreed to bring me on board. For the rest of the summer, I was Phil’s assistant in the booth whenever the Yankees were on WPIX. I would do small things like getting his coffee and canolis, keeping score for him during the innings he didn’t announce and helping to organize his autograph sessions in the back of the pressbox before the games.

When I returned to Oswego after the summer, I updated my resume with a bullet point that remains there to this day, “Personal assistant to Phil Rizzuto, July-August, 1995.” This led to an internship with the Yankees in the media relations department in 1997, and then a full-time job. I left the Yankees after the 1999 season and became Assistant Director of Media Relations for the Cincinnati Reds (1999-06) and then Director of Media Relations for the Milwaukee Brewers (2006-current).

When I learned of Phil’s passing, it really didn’t hit me until I started to think about the great things that I have experienced in my 11 years in baseball, and all of the wonderful friends I’ve made in this game. Without Phil Rizzuto giving me a chance as nothing more than a fan in 1995, this would not have been possible. Phil was a great man. What you saw on TV all of those years was the same man you saw outside the booth. Every year, when we would exchange Christmas cards, I would thank him again for what he did for me. I want to take this opportunity to thank him one more time.

You will be missed, Scooter!

***
In one case, Phil Rizzuto spent about an hour with four people and left them, simply, with smiles and warm feelings. In the other, he gave a young man a career. This is the kind of guy The Scooter was. The length of your interaction with him didn't seem to matter, because he made everyone he encountered feel special.

Appeared on New York 1 last night, and the issue arose, from a caller, over who was the most valuable Yankee this year. The caller suggested Jorge Posada, and I politely responded that, while Posada deserved huge props for his awesome 2007, it was absurd to say it was anyone besides Alex Rodriguez.

"But whom could the Yankees least afford to lose?" host Tom McDonald followed.

"A-Rod," I said.

Still, I was curious enough to check out one of my favorite "new" statistics _ VORP, which stands for Value Over Replacement Player. As explained here, VORP computes the amount of runs (over an entire season) that a player produces over a "replacement-level" player at his position. Replacement level means a "Quadruple-A" player. Think Mike DiFelice of the Mets, now around at catcher due to Paul Lo Duca's injury, or tonight's Yankees starting pitcher Jeff Karstens, substituting for the suspended Roger Clemens.

Through Monday night, A-Rod has the second-best VORP in baseball, 65.6, behind only Florida's Hanley Ramirez (67.7). But in fifth place, there's Mr. Posada, at 54.9. The next-best catcher is Cleveland's Victor Martinez, in 21st place with a 43.1 VORP. Whereas Florida third baseman Miguel Cabrera barely trails A-Rod, in fourth place at 63.2.

So perhaps I shouldn't been so dismissive of this "Posada for Team MVP" campaign _ although it is interesting to note that the arrival of Jose Molina makes it appear like less of a crisis every time Posada rests (as he did over the weekend, with an ailing neck).

What do you think? Are long-time fans inclined to favor Posada because of his pinstriped roots? Or can you objectively argue that, as magnificent as A-Rod has been, he needs to share some glory with Posada?