Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

1. The Mets will drop three of four games to the resilient Phillies, cutting their National League East lead to one game (two in the loss column). But on a positive note, Carlos Delgado and Julio Franco will be cast in a remake of "The Sunshine Boys."
2. The Yankees' bats will continue to show signs of life. Alas, all three of their games against the A's will be suspended, keeping their record at 36-39.
3. The White Sox will fail to sign Mark Buehrle to an extension, and will subsequently trade the left-hander to Atlanta. Buehrle will immediately accuse Chipper Jones of being soft.
4. In this season replete with milestones, Cardinals manager Tony La Russa will use four pitchers in an inning for the 6,000th time, while Carl Pavano will set a record with his second Tommy John surgery in one season.
5. Barry Bonds will make the National League All-Star team when it's announced on Sunday, only to be removed by Bud Selig. The commissioner will claim that Bonds disqualified himself during a recent game of Trivial Pursuit, when he answered that the "Moors," rather than the correct "Moops," invaded Spain in the eighth century.

One can argue that baseball has never been more popular, given the attendance numbers and vast media coverage. In conjunction with that, there is a clear hunger for anticipated player movement, and this time of year, that means looking ahead to the July 31 non-waivers trading deadline.

But here in 2007, the fans and media are all revved up with few places to go.

In-season trade discussions have changed dramatically in the last few years. Just look at the White Sox. They peddled Mark Buehrle to the usual suspects, discovered that no one was willing to give up an elite prospect and now they're trying to re-sign the impending free agent. Which takes the top starting pitcher off the trade market.

There'll be plenty of chatter in the next month, with some big names probably thrown in, but ultimately, you can expect someone of Jermaine Dye's caliber _ or perhaps the oddity that is Sammy Sosa _ to be the biggest player moving. Last year, it was Greg Maddux _ a huge name, I grant you, but one well past his prime. In 2005, it was...Kyle Farnsworth?

There are two obvious factors behind the change: 1) Fewer teams are willing to give up on their seasons, thanks to the late playoff runs of the 2004-05 Astros and 2006 Twins; and 2) There's virtually no team that will give up a big-time prospect without a compelling reason. That includes the Mets, Yankees and Red Sox, all of whom used to be more far more generous when it came to disposing of unproven youngsters.

So, enjoy the proceedings, and we'll certainly document everything here at Newsday. But don't get your hopes up too much. The times, they have changed.

Bernie Williams is sitting at home in Westchester, while Ruben Sierra is doing the same in the Miami area. Neither man is technically or spiritually retired. Both could be helping a New York team right now, if only they hadn't let their egos guide their decisions.

Bernie, you know about. How he turned down the Yankees' spring-training offer of a minor-league contract. How he could made the team _ over Josh Phelps, for instance _ or, barring that, could have been summoned a week into the season, when Hideki Matsui went on the disabled list. How he could be the starting designated hitter Wednesday night against Baltimore left-hander Erik Bedard.

Sierra _ not as beloved in New York, but as important and famous a figure in the baseball community _ took the Mets' minor-league offer in spring training, and Mets general manager Omar Minaya had his old Rangers pal Sierra pegged for Triple-A New Orleans, where he would mentor Carlos Gomez and Latings Milledge and be available as an injury replacement. Ruben, who reported to camp out of shape, said thanks but no thanks. Given the injuries to Moises Alou, Endy Chavez and Shawn Green, it's not outrageous to think that Sierra would've gotten a shot, no matter how bad his defense is.

Instead, Sierra has held discussions with the independent Newark Bears about playing, a person familiar with the situation said. Meanwhile, Bernie is supposedly keeping in good shape but also moving forward with his life, as he'll be performing in an Aug. 18 concert in the Bronx.

We all know that Bernie would rather be elsewhere in the Bronx, all things being equal, and that Sierra wishes he were still in the big leagues. If both hadn't been so reluctant to lower their standards, even just for the short term, they might be far happier right now. And the Yankees and Mets might be better off.

We in the media are always trying to establish ultimatums, deadlines, now-or-nevers - what have you. When it comes to sports, in particular, we're wrong at an alarming rate.

So I refuse to point to this week as do-or-die for the Yankees, because it turns out that this guy is far wiser than they thought back in the day. It truly ain't over until it's over.

Therefore, I won't pinpoint a date when the Yankees will finally get it together. I'll just say that I think they will, in time to capture the American League wild card. Thanks to these reasons:

1. They'll catch up to their Pythagorean record. With 398 runs scored and 336 runs allowed, the Yankees should be 42-31, not 36-37. That they've underachieved speaks partly to poor relief pitching, partly to poor defense, partly to poor late-inning execution _ and partly to dumb luck. Their 4-12 record in one-run games, as opposed to their 32-25 record in other contests, reflects that, as well, and teams' one-run-game winning percentage usually matches their overall winning percentage.

2. Because they have the easiest schedule of all AL wild-card contenders, as my hard-working colleague Jim Baumbach detailed Monday.

3. Because, for whatever reason, they've been a better second-half team than first-half team since 2005, even though the same age/depth/bullpen issues have hovered.

4. Because they have the best player in baseball.

(Kidding, kidding. Where have all the A-Rod bashers gone, anyway?)

5. Because their starting rotation should, and will continue to, keep them in most games.

Obviously, Mets fans have to be encouraged most of all by the weekend sweep of the A's, but the Braves' tough week has to rank a close second. It seems as though the Braves, swept by the Tigers over the weekend and losers of five straight overall, simply don't have the horses to hang in this NL East race.

Put aside the mythology that the Braves always figure out a way to prevail; that died last year. Atlanta is lacking in both starting pitching and offense, especially, having been shut out in four of its last five games. The Braves may own the Mets this year, but they aren't anyone else's daddy.

The reality might be that the Mets, their flaws notwithstanding, could simply outlast their NL East competitors. As always, I'll stick to my preseason prediction of the Phillies winning, because that's the sort of guy I am. But the Phillies have just been crushed by injuries, with Jon Lieber joining Freddy Garcia, Tom Gordon and Brett Myers on the disabled list. Their pitching surplus has turned into a big-time shortage. As it is, the Phillies are overachieving with a 39-36 record. Given their 382-389 run differential, they should have a losing mark right now.

So the Mets might be able to stay disciplined and not give up Lastings Milledge for Mark Buehrle, and still make the playoffs. And once you get in, as last year's terrible Cardinals team displayed, anything is possible.

1. The Yankees, having been swept by the Rockies, will recover with a three-game sweep of the awful Giants at AT&T Park. However, both Friday's starter Kei Igawa and Sunday's starter Mike Mussina will serve up home runs to Barry Bonds, giving the slugger 750 career homers and raising further doubts about Igawa, who will respond to Bonds' first-inning blast by pitching right-handed in their next encounter.

2. The woeful Mets will drop yet another series, two of three to Oakland, with the Shea Stadium boos particularly strong for Carlos Delgado, Scott Schoeneweis and Mr. Met.

3. Joe Girardi will nearly agree to sticking his head in a barrel full of dead fish and used athletic socks, then decide against it at the last minute.

4. Due to some odd alignment of the constellations, both the Cubs and White Sox will go 0-3, even though they'll be playing each other.

5. Just to make sure no one is upset with him, Jason Giambi will personally wash Bud Selig's car. Then he'll take personal responsibility for Pete Rose's gambling problems, all horrible movie sequels and those "parachute pants" from the '80s.

I attended Sammy Sosa's first day at Rangers spring training, back in February, and if you had bet me then on the likelihood of Sammy reaching the 600-homer mark, you could've taken me to the cleaners. Wow, did Sosa look bad taking batting practice, and he was coming off a year of retirement, on top of a horrid 2005 with the Orioles.

On Wednesday night, Sosa hit number 600, his 12th homer of the season, a highlight in an otherwise miserable Rangers campaign. Sammy has now authored one of the more memorable comebacks in recent baseball history. Good for him. Good theater for the rest of us.

But when Sosa finally does retire for good, how about his Hall of Fame candidacy?

His, I think, will be the most challenging case. Every logical instinct says that this guy, like his contemporary Mark McGwire, used performance-enhancing drugs. Yet we've got virtually nothing on him.

I don't think we need trial standards when it comes to determining a player's guilt on the steroids issue. I didn't vote for McGwire last year, because of 1) his refusal to answer the steroids question during the infamous Congressional hearings of March 17, 2005, when, a month earlier, not under oath, he categorically denied using PEDs; 2) the revelation by Congressman Tom Davis that the day before those hearings, McGwire offered to testify about his steroid usage in return for immunity, which Davis rejected; and 3) the New York Daily News report in March 2005 that detailed McGwire's steroids cocktail from his playing days.

For Barry Bonds, we have this. For Rafael Palmeiro, there's an actual positive drug test from 2005.

But what about Sammy? His Congressional testimony was pathetic, as he pretended to speak poor English, but nowhere as damning as McGwire's. There are no known positive tests. And not once has a journalist tracked down a potential supplier.

The corked bat in 2003 was bad, yet not bad enough to keep him out of Cooperstown. Corking your bat doesn't break any federal laws.

So for now, Sammy makes my ballot, because there's not enough hard evidence. Perhaps some day a skeleton will emerge from Sammy's closet. Not yet, however. The only thing keeping Sammy out of the Hall is the fact that he's still playing. Playing surprisingly well, for that matter.

In 1996, Bruce Froemming entered the vistors' clubhouse at Shea Stadium, then penetrated the trainers' room, to boot, and asked Mike Piazza (then with the Dodgers) for some autographs. While Piazza was undergoing treatment.

In 2003, Froemming, Major League Baseball's senior active umpire, left an anti-Semitic, sexist message on a superior's voice mail, drawing himself a 10-game suspension.

Which offends you more? Those actions, or Barry Bonds' apparent steroid usage?

For me, it's a no-brainer. As someone paid to be both objective and a leader on the field, Froemming has no business hustling players and managers for autographs (and the Piazza anecdote is just one example. Froemming used to talk on the banquet circuit about how he would harrass Johnny Bench for autographs). The nasty voice mail message speaks for itself, doesn't it? An apology really doesn't soften the blow; once you say something like that, you're forever exposed as a bigot.

Bonds' actions are highly objectionable, don't get me wrong. At this point, I don't intend to vote for Bonds for the Hall of Fame, because of his offenses. Yet Bonds' near-certain deployment of performance-enhancing drugs reflected his desire to improve his statistics, which also improved his team's chances of winning. It was cheating, but it wasn't conflict-of-interest cheating.

Furthermore, Bonds' sour personality is well known, yet he seems to hate pretty much everyone, not discriminating on race, sex or beliefs.

Why does this matter? Because baseball continues to tribute Froemming for his longevity, publicly celebrating his 5,000th career game last year and naming him the crew chief and home-plate umpire for this year's All-Star Game. Whereas Bud Selig refuses to commit to attending Bonds' 756th career homer.

Why honor one jerk while shunning the second? Unless he gets "guilty-in-a-trial" evidence on Bonds (which would, of course, merit a suspension), Selig should exhibit an equality-for-jerks understanding. I'm not ripping baseball for supporting Froemming; since his offenses are loathsome yet not fireable, that's the right thing to do. But so, therefore, is being there for Bonds' big moment.

Please discuss.

There were times in his childhood, Joe Torre said yesterday, when his father, a New York City police officer, would arrive home at 3 a.m., accompanied by a couple of buddies. The elder Torre would wake up his wife _ Joe's mother, Margaret _ and instruct her to cook for the men. Margaret Torre didn't have a real choice. She knew what the ramifications would be if she refused.

Stories like that explain why Torre started his Safe at Home Foundation back in 2002. The foundation helps children who have found themselves in violent homes, through lectures, literature and advertising, and there are 10 foundation-sponsored safe houses _ all called "Margaret's Place," in memory of Torre's mother _ in the tri-state area. More are on the way.

"I just felt that my mom meant so much to me and the other kids in her family," Torre said Monday, at the Samsung's Four Seasons of Hope's sixth annual celebrity gala. "Her life was all about her children. She never went to dinner, never went to movies, never went on vacation. It was all about being there for her children. So I wanted to do something in her name."

We're fortunate to have many local baseball figures who take their community service seriously. Derek Jeter has done great things with his Turn 2 Foundation. Newsday's Kat O'Brien wrote a great Father's Day story about Jorge Posada's efforts to raise awareness about craniosynostosis, which his son Jorge Luis has battled. On the Mets' side, Carlos Delgado won last year's Roberto Clemente Award for his organization, Extra Bases, and Tom Glavine has been honored by the New York chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America for his work.

All deserve great praise, and while I'm loathe to start ranking, I think Torre deserves special credit, because he has chosen to open up about something very painful and personal. Torre himself never suffered abuse at the hands of his father, but he always feared that day would come, because of the way Torre's father abused his mother.

"The days where I used to come home from school and see my dad’s car in front of the house, I used to go somewhere else," Torre said. "I could never go home. It’s so reassuring that my daughter never wants to leave home, that she just enjoys hanging out at home, which is something I never felt comfortable doing. ...It was very turbulent in that home. You don’t have to be physically hit to be affected by what goes on."

This Yankees season has featured its usual tension and speculation about Torre's job security, and there will come a time, whether it's this year, next year or beyond, when Torre no longer manages the Yankees. There's no doubt the prestige of the job helps Safe at Home, when it comes to donation time. But at this point, the foundation appears strong enough to carry on its mission regardless of Torre's job.

And really, that's something we should respect and admire more than those four World Series rings.