By Mike Casey
Some might say I'm jumping the gun, considering the season isn't over and free agency doesn't begin until July 1, but it's never early to have a little speculative fun.
This past season was one of the most exciting in the past 20 years for New York hockey, so in the interest of keeping the excitement alive, I thought I'd take a look at some of this summer's top free agents and assess where they might be headed and why.
For some local flavor, I've noted whether or the Rangers or Islanders might be interested in each player. Since it takes some time to research these things, I've broken this blog into several parts for safe and easy digestion.
Also, bear in mind I don't have a whole lot of inside info on this stuff. What I know, I know from research and my very few contacts in the hockey world. So don't go too crazy -- have some fun with it.
Last thing before we get started: I have to tip my cap to a great NHL salary cap web site, www.nhlnumbers.com, which was the basis of a lot of my research and conclusions.
Here are the first 10 free agent reviews, starting alphabetically by current team:
J.S. Giguere, 30 (on May 16), G, Anaheim Ducks
2006-07 Stats: 36-10-8, 2.26 GAA, .918 save percentage
Who might be interested: Ducks, Wings, Bruins, Panthers, Lightning, Coyotes
Giguere's stock is rising again, as he's helping to lead his team on a serious Stanley Cup run. He's posted a 1.28 GAA and a ridiculous .952 save percentage in the playoffs so far. This means someone is going to have to pay a premium for his services, and Giguere will likely want at least a four-year contract at around $5 or $5.5 million/year.
From a hockey standpoint, the Ducks are the favorites to sign him, because Giguere is the centerpiece of that team -- despite all-star defensemen Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer. But things get interesting from a financial standpoint.
Giguere will demand a raise from the $3.99 million he made last year, which could be a problem for the Ducks. The Ducks have only three defensemen -- Pronger, Niedermayer and Francois Beauchemin -- under contract for next season. Granted, they are the Ducks' top three defensemen, but players cost money, and as much as Randy Carlyle would love to play those three for 40-plus minutes per game, Anaheim will need to spend some to fill out the depth on the blueline. How much attention the blueline gets, and the Ducks' ability or inability to fill those final three spots with effective, but cheap players will dictate to a large extent how much money they can afford to keep Giguere.
The Giguere decision will also be influenced by what Anaheim has in store for fan-favorite Teemu Selanne (see below). If the Ducks make a big commitment to Selanne, they'll be hard-pressed to bring back Giguere. Anaheim might also feel they can find more value in backup goalie Ilya Bryzgalov, who filled in well for Giguere at times this season, or free agent Niklas Backstrom, who was superb for Minnesota after Manny Fernandez went down in 2006-07.
The door could be open for Detroit -- which could lose Dominik Hasek to free agency or retirement -- or Boston, which is desperate for quality goaltending, to step up and steal Giguere from the Ducks. Florida has cap room and needs a goaltender after the Roberto Luongo disaster. With an improvement in net, they would become a contender for an Eastern Conference playoff spot.
The Lightning were doomed by lousy goaltending all year long, but Marc Denis is under contract for three more seasons. If they can find a way to dump Denis, Tampa would become a major player for Giguere.
Phoenix needs a centerpiece and some life breathed into their team, and could woo Giguere with a big offer.
Islanders? Two words: Rick DiPietro
Rangers? Two more: Henrik Lundqvist
Prediction: Giguere won't be able to resist the big money from other teams and the Ducks won't be able to match it. He'll end up in Detroit, which has big expectations and lots of expiring contracts this summer.