Fantasy football: Creating a 'reliability index'
Raise your hand if you're the most reliable fantasy football running back. (Photo by Getty Images)
By Ryan Chatelain
In the eyes of many fantasy footballers, Adrian Peterson should be this year’s No. 1 overall draft pick.
They vividly recall when the Minnesota running back had games of 224 and 296 rushing yards last season and almost single-handedly helped his fantasy owners win those weeks.
They seem to forget, however, about Peterson’s miserable Week 14 (3 yards on 14 carries), and how he managed only 63 rushing yards over the final two weeks when the Vikings were battling for a playoff spot.
Last summer, I thought it would be helpful to gauge a player’s dependability from week to week. In other words, would you rather a running back who will score 25 points one week and just five the next, or one who is a safe bet for at least 15 points every week?
So I created a stat that I call the “reliability index.”
Without boring you too much with the math, the reliability index awards a quarterback, for example, a “win” for every game he scores at least 15 points, a “tie” for 10 to 14 points and a “loss” for nine or fewer. Those numbers are then converted into a number similar to a winning percentage in sports standings.
The standards vary according to the expectations of each position. The “win” threshold for a running back is 12 points and 10 for a wide receiver or tight end — meaning the reliability index should only be used to compare athletes at the same position. If a player missed a game, it is not factored in.
Here are some revelations made possible by the reliability index. (Only players who scored 75 or more points in standard-scoring leagues and who are currently on an NFL roster were considered.)
• New England quarterback Tom Brady (.938), Philadelphia running back Brian Westbrook (.906), Houston wide receiver Andre Johnson (.833) and Dallas tight end Jason Witten (.625) were the most dependable players at their positions last season.
• San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers (.375), Cincinnati running back Rudi Johnson (.364), Washington receiver Santana Moss (.357) and Giant-turned-Saints tight end Jeremy Shockey (.250) had painfully low scores.
• Peterson’s reliability index of .607 was just 12th among running backs.
• Giants running back Brandon Jacobs was the sixth most dependable running back (.727). His only “loss” was the season opener, when he left early with a knee injury.
• New Orleans’ Reggie Bush (.542) was more trustworthy than Jacksonville’s Maurice-Jones Drew (.469).
• Jets wideout Jerricho Cotchery (.533) was more reliable than Giants star Plaxico Burress (.500).
The reliability index is not a magic formula that should be used alone on draft day. But it can help separate two otherwise seemingly comparable players and could help you avoid those frustrating weeks when your star performer scores a goose egg.
* * *
Here is a breakdown of players' reliability for last season. Again, only players who scored at least 75 fantasy points in standard-scoring leagues and are currently on an NFL roster appear.
| QUARTERBACKS | W (15+) |
L (9-less |
T (10-14) |
Reliability |
| T. Brady (NE) | 15 |
1 |
0 |
0.938 |
| P. Manning (Ind) | 10 |
2 |
4 |
0.750 |
| B. Favre (NYJ) | 11 |
3 |
2 |
0.750 |
| T. Romo (Dal) | 9 |
2 |
5 |
0.719 |
| K. Warner (Ariz) | 8 |
3 |
3 |
0.679 |
| B. Roethlisberger (Pit) | 8 |
3 |
4 |
0.667 |
| D. Garrard (Jax) | 5 |
1 |
6 |
0.667 |
| M. Hasselbeck (Sea) | 7 |
2 |
7 |
0.656 |
| B. Greise (TB) | 4 |
2 |
1 |
0.643 |
| D. Brees (NO) | 7 |
4 |
5 |
0.594 |
| D. Anderson (Cle) | 6 |
3 |
7 |
0.594 |
| C. Redman (Atl) | 3 |
2 |
1 |
0.583 |
| D. McNabb (Phi) | 5 |
3 |
5 |
0.577 |
| C.Palmer (Cin) | 6 |
5 |
5 |
0.531 |
| S. Rosenfels (Hou) | 3 |
3 |
3 |
0.500 |
| C. Lemon (Jax) | 3 |
3 |
3 |
0.500 |
| J. Cutler (Den) | 4 |
5 |
7 |
0.469 |
| C. Pennington (Mia) | 2 |
3 |
4 |
0.444 |
| J. Kitna (Det) | 5 |
7 |
4 |
0.438 |
| J. Campbell (Was) | 4 |
6 |
3 |
0.423 |
| D. Huard (KC) | 3 |
5 |
3 |
0.409 |
| J. Garcia (TB) | 2 |
5 |
6 |
0.385 |
| P. Rivers (SD) | 4 |
8 |
4 |
0.375 |
| K. Boller (Balt) | 3 |
6 |
3 |
0.375 |
| M. Schaub (Hou) | 3 |
6 |
2 |
0.364 |
| V. Young (Ten) | 4 |
9 |
2 |
0.333 |
| E. Manning (NYG) | 3 |
9 |
4 |
0.313 |
| Q. Gray (Ind) | 2 |
5 |
1 |
0.313 |
| T. Jackson (Min) | 3 |
8 |
1 |
0.292 |
| M. Bulger (SL) | 3 |
8 |
1 |
0.292 |
| J. McCown (Mia) | 2 |
6 |
1 |
0.278 |
| K. Clemens (NYJ) | 1 |
6 |
3 |
0.250 |
| J. Harrington (Atl) | 2 |
8 |
1 |
0.227 |
| T. Edwards (Buf) | 1 |
8 |
1 |
0.150 |
| RUNNING BACKS | W (12+) |
L 6-less |
T (7-11) |
Reliability |
| B. Westbrook (Phi) | 13 |
0 |
3 |
0.906 |
| L. Tomlinson (SD) | 12 |
1 |
3 |
0.844 |
| M. Lynch (Buf) | 8 |
0 |
5 |
0.808 |
| C. Portis (Was) | 10 |
1 |
5 |
0.781 |
| W. McGahee (Balt) | 9 |
2 |
4 |
0.733 |
| B. Jacobs (NYG) | 6 |
1 |
4 |
0.727 |
| R. Brown (Mia) | 4 |
1 |
2 |
0.714 |
| J. Addai (Ind) | 8 |
3 |
4 |
0.667 |
| S. Jackson (SL) | 6 |
2 |
4 |
0.667 |
| J. Lewis (Clev) | 9 |
5 |
1 |
0.633 |
| L. Johnson (KC) | 4 |
2 |
2 |
0.625 |
| A. Peterson (Min) | 7 |
4 |
3 |
0.607 |
| E. Graham (TB) | 8 |
5 |
2 |
0.600 |
| E. James (Ariz) | 5 |
2 |
9 |
0.594 |
| F. Gore (SF) | 5 |
3 |
7 |
0.567 |
| M. Barber (Dal) | 8 |
6 |
2 |
0.563 |
| L. White (Ten) | 8 |
6 |
2 |
0.563 |
| R. Bush (NO) | 4 |
3 |
5 |
0.542 |
| R. Grant (GB) | 5 |
4 |
5 |
0.536 |
| W. Parker (Pit) | 5 |
4 |
6 |
0.533 |
| L. Maroney (NE) | 3 |
3 |
7 |
0.500 |
| M. Jones-Drew (Jax) | 5 |
6 |
5 |
0.469 |
| C. Taylor (Min) | 5 |
6 |
3 |
0.464 |
| F. Taylor (Jax) | 4 |
6 |
5 |
0.433 |
| K. Watson (Cin) | 4 |
6 |
5 |
0.433 |
| J. Fargas (Oak) | 5 |
7 |
3 |
0.433 |
| K. Jones (Chi) | 4 |
6 |
3 |
0.423 |
| M. Morris (Sea) | 4 |
6 |
3 |
0.423 |
| L. Jordan (NE) | 3 |
6 |
2 |
0.364 |
| R. Johnson (Cin) | 3 |
6 |
2 |
0.364 |
| T. Jones (NYJ) | 3 |
8 |
5 |
0.344 |
| D. Williams (Car) | 4 |
10 |
2 |
0.313 |
| W. Dunn (TB) | 3 |
9 |
4 |
0.313 |
| D. Foster (SF) | 3 |
10 |
3 |
0.281 |
| A. Peterson (Chi) | 3 |
10 |
3 |
0.281 |
| S. Young (Den) | 2 |
10 |
3 |
0.233 |
| A. Stecker (NO) | 2 |
9 |
2 |
0.231 |
| J. Norwood (Atl) | 1 |
10 |
4 |
0.200 |
| J. Jones (Sea) | 2 |
12 |
2 |
0.188 |
| K. Keith (Ind) | 2 |
12 |
2 |
0.188 |
| C. Brown (Hou) | 1 |
9 |
2 |
0.167 |
| WIDE RECEIVERS | W (10+) | L (4-less) | T (5-9) | Reliability |
| A. Johnson (Hou) | 7 |
1 |
1 |
0.833 |
| R. Moss (NE) | 12 |
2 |
2 |
0.813 |
| B. Edwards (Cle) | 11 |
1 |
4 |
0.813 |
| G. Jennings (GB) | 10 |
2 |
1 |
0.808 |
| R. Wayne (Ind) | 9 |
0 |
7 |
0.781 |
| T. Owens (Dal) | 11 |
4 |
0 |
0.733 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Cin) | 9 |
2 |
5 |
0.719 |
| B. Marshall (Den) | 7 |
0 |
9 |
0.719 |
| L. Fitzgerald (Ariz) | 7 |
1 |
7 |
0.700 |
| B. Engram (Sea) | 7 |
1 |
8 |
0.688 |
| T. Holt (SL) | 7 |
2 |
7 |
0.656 |
| S. Holmes (Pit) | 7 |
3 |
3 |
0.654 |
| C. Johnson (Cin) | 6 |
2 |
8 |
0.625 |
| M. Colston (NO) | 9 |
5 |
2 |
0.625 |
| R. White (Atl) | 7 |
3 |
6 |
0.625 |
| A. Boldin (Ariz) | 5 |
3 |
4 |
0.583 |
| Re. Williams (Jax) | 6 |
4 |
5 |
0.567 |
| W. Welker (NE) | 7 |
5 |
4 |
0.563 |
| D. Mason (Bal) | 5 |
3 |
8 |
0.563 |
| S. McDonald (Det) | 6 |
4 |
6 |
0.563 |
| L. Coles (NYJ) | 3 |
2 |
5 |
0.550 |
| D. Branch (Sea) | 6 |
5 |
0 |
0.545 |
| H. Ward (Pit) | 5 |
4 |
4 |
0.538 |
| J. Cotchery (NYJ) | 5 |
4 |
6 |
0.533 |
| C. Chambers (SD) | 4 |
3 |
11 |
0.528 |
| P. Burress (NYG) | 7 |
7 |
2 |
0.500 |
| J. Galloway (TB) | 6 |
6 |
3 |
0.500 |
| N. Burleson (Sea) | 6 |
6 |
4 |
0.500 |
| D. Bowe (KC) | 5 |
5 |
6 |
0.500 |
| B. Berrian (Min) | 4 |
4 |
8 |
0.500 |
| R. Williams (Det) | 4 |
4 |
4 |
0.500 |
| B. Stokley (Den) | 4 |
4 |
5 |
0.500 |
| K. Curtis (Phi) | 4 |
5 |
7 |
0.469 |
| D. Driver (GB) | 3 |
4 |
8 |
0.467 |
| I. Bruce (SF) | 4 |
5 |
5 |
0.464 |
| S. Smith (Car) | 5 |
7 |
3 |
0.433 |
| P. Crayton (Dal) | 5 |
7 |
3 |
0.433 |
| Ca. Johnson (Det) | 5 |
7 |
3 |
0.433 |
| J. Porter (Jax) | 4 |
7 |
5 |
0.406 |
| K. Walter (Hou) | 5 |
8 |
3 |
0.406 |
| R. Brown (Phil) | 4 |
7 |
5 |
0.406 |
| D. Patten (NO) | 5 |
8 |
2 |
0.400 |
| L. Evans (Buf) | 4 |
8 |
4 |
0.375 |
| S. Moss (Was) | 3 |
7 |
4 |
0.357 |
| J. Jones (GB) | 2 |
6 |
5 |
0.346 |
| A. Battle (SF) | 3 |
8 |
5 |
0.344 |
| Ro. Williams (Ten) | 4 |
9 |
2 |
0.333 |
| A. Davis (Hou) | 3 |
8 |
3 |
0.321 |
| R. Curry (Oak) | 4 |
10 |
2 |
0.313 |
| A. Randle-El (Was) | 3 |
9 |
3 |
0.300 |
| I. Hilliard (TB) | 2 |
8 |
5 |
0.300 |
| D. Northcutt (Jax) | 2 |
8 |
5 |
0.300 |
| A. Gonzalez (Ind) | 3 |
8 |
1 |
0.292 |
| A. Toomer (NYG) | 2 |
9 |
5 |
0.281 |
| D. Stallworth (Cle) | 3 |
10 |
3 |
0.281 |
| J. Gage (Ten) | 3 |
10 |
3 |
0.281 |
| M. Muhammad (Car) | 3 |
10 |
3 |
0.281 |
| V. Jackson (SD) | 2 |
10 |
4 |
0.250 |
| B. Wade (Min) | 2 |
11 |
3 |
0.219 |
| TIGHT ENDS | W (10+) | L (4-less) | T (5-9) | Reliability |
| J. Witten (Dal) | 8 |
4 |
4 |
0.625 |
| A. Gates (SD) | 8 |
5 |
3 |
0.594 |
| K. Winslow (Cle) | 5 |
3 |
8 |
0.563 |
| D. Clark (Ind) | 8 |
7 |
0 |
0.533 |
| T. Gonzalez (KC) | 7 |
6 |
3 |
0.531 |
| C. Cooley (Was) | 3 |
4 |
9 |
0.469 |
| V. Davis (SF) | 3 |
6 |
5 |
0.393 |
| T. Scheffler (Den) | 4 |
8 |
1 |
0.346 |
| O. Daniels (Hou) | 1 |
6 |
9 |
0.344 |
| H. Miller (Pit) | 3 |
8 |
4 |
0.333 |
| D. Lee (GB) | 2 |
7 |
6 |
0.333 |
| B. Watson (NE) | 3 |
7 |
2 |
0.333 |
| D. Clark (Chi) | 3 |
10 |
3 |
0.281 |
| J. Shockey (NO) | 1 |
8 |
5 |
0.250 |
