by Jim Tankersley
At the end of a rally in Oregon last month, during a question-and-answer session with the candidate, a woman asked Barack Obama about his campaign's battle with Hillary Clinton's over how to count delegates from two disputed states. Couldn't you just give them Florida? she asked.
Several audience members laughed. Obama's winding answer included no promises to "give them Florida" or Michigan, the two states whose delegate fate is set to be decided by leaders of the Democratic National Committee today.
Should he? Is the best way to wrap up the nomination next week to agree to Clinton's every demand on both states?
That's the argument M.S. Bellows Jr. makes in the Huffington Post this week in a piece titled "The Trap: Clinton's "Briarpatch" Strategy For The DNC Rules Committee Meeting."
"Barack Obama and Howard Dean are about to walk into Harold Ickes' trap tomorrow,: he writes, "and they aren't likely to even realize their mistake until Hillary Clinton cries "foul!" next week and announces that "justice" and "voters' rights" are forcing her to carry her campaign all the way to the Democratic Convention next August.
"By leaning toward implementing a compromise "split the baby" decision tomorrow on how to allocate the Michigan and Florida delegates -- a compromise that nearly all observers see as a setback for Clinton -- the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee ("RBC"), the Obama campaign and other well-meaning Democrats will actually be throwing Brer Clinton into the briar patch -- giving her exactly the excuse she wants to continue her Quixotic campaign."
Bellows makes an intriguing case, but is he underplaying two key factors: money and momentum?
Bellows' argument, essentially, is that Clinton has no intention of quitting the Democratic race after primary voting ends next week. Her goal, he says, is to push the contest all the way to the August convention in Denver, aggressively courting pledged delegates and superdelegates along the way.
Technically, there's nothing to stop her. All delegates are free to change their minds up to the floor vote, per DNC rules. Bellows predicts Clinton is simply looking for an excuse to keep going - and that the best one she could possibly have is to appeal the DNC's decision on Florida and Michigan (even if those states are satisfied with this weekend's ruling).
Obama's best way to stop her, he contends, is to give her everything she wants today - and then go on to win enough delegates to clinch the nomination anyway.
Bellows offers plenty of supporting evidence for his theory, including a report that Clinton plans to keep traveling the campaign trail after the final primaries on June 3 and the Clinton campaign's failure to deny the "briar patch' theory when Bellows asked point-blank about it on a conference call Friday.
On the other hand, Clinton told Montana reporters on Friday that she expects the race to end next week one way or another.
We'd offer a few other questions to ponder as you jump into Bellows' briar patch, including:
* Clinton is already finding herself squeezed from the media conversation as the primaries wind down and Obama turns his attention to Republican John McCain. How would she reverse that throughout the summer, particularly if Obama has amassed the "magic number" of delegates needed for the nomination?
* Would her fundraising dry up in that case? That's what usually happens to candidates when their chances dwindle. (See: Edwards, John.)
* What would a summer-long appeal - and refusal to quit the race - do to Clinton's future in politics? Her husband's legacy? If she somehow prevailed at the convention - which, presumably, would rival the 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago for drama - how would she unite the party in time to win the White House in November? If she battled to August and lost, and then Obama lost to McCain, how would she avoid taking the blame?
* Bottom line: Obama has steadily gained in superdelegates for months. How would a convention appeal change the momentum in the race? Would Clinton be betting on the chance that a major Obama gaffe or damaging revelation could do that over the summer, leaving her a new argument to delegates?
Give Bellows a read. Then weigh in here: What does Clinton really want today?
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Comments
What does Clinton want?
She's said so for months. Clinton wants her delegates. If she doesn't get them, she is entitled by the rules and the provisions of the Democratic nomination process to carry her issue to the convention if she wishes.
After the way she's been treated, she doesn't owe Obama or the Democratic Party anything. She is entitled to do what is appropriate for her and is under no obligation to serve his goals or the Party's.
Posted by: Annette Keller | May 31, 2008 12:59 AM
She really want to be President and if she can't get the nomination she isn't about to let someone else on the Democratic side. If she takes it to the convention, which I expect, she will never get this far in any primary in the future. One additional footnote can be added to their legacy in addition to Travelgate, Whitewater Lewinsky, impeachment etc.
Posted by: Okie | May 31, 2008 1:41 AM
Hillary wants all MI delegates seated but none to go to Obama. Now there's a potential world-leader with a sense of fair-play and a knack for compromise! NOT!
Hillary, the Queen of Spin and a Legend in Her Own Mind!
http://klintons.com
Posted by: Bob | May 31, 2008 1:44 AM
You give her what she wants from both states and she will take it all the way to the convention, saying he only leads by less then 100 pledged delegates, she won the "important" states and has won the popular vote (by way of Hillary math).
If you think by giving her what she wants, which will make her case stronger (in her mind) to the Superdelegates, and that will make her stop doesn't even make sense. Where has she shown that this would be a good idea?
Posted by: Mike | May 31, 2008 1:47 AM
What does Clinton really want today?
She wants Barack to drop out.
Posted by: Steve J. | May 31, 2008 2:22 AM
that lady needs to get used to the fact that shes not "entitled" to the presidency...
Posted by: Mikhil Ranka | May 31, 2008 3:00 AM
I predict your prediction is accurate. Clinton has laid the ground nicely to cry "Foul" after the DNC committee meets so she can head for the convention credentials committee. Her failure of consciousness, naturalness, integrity, conscience is apparently driving the Clinton family caravan in that direction. Better she should run as a third party candidate where she could do a lot more damage.
Posted by: Gaias Child | May 31, 2008 3:06 AM
Does anyone realize that she only wants to get her supporters so angry (like myself) that they will vote for McCain (like myself) and Obama will be defeated so that she can run in 2012 against an ageing McCain in presumabaly bad economic condidtions
Posted by: sam | May 31, 2008 3:12 AM
What does Hilliary want? She wants the nomination at ANY COST to the party, the nation, and Senator Obama. The DNC and the Committee should not even be "bargaining" with this egomaniac who thinks the world revolves around her!! Both the Clintons have always thought they were above the law and above the citizenry. Hiliary does not give a tinker's dam about MI and FL and their voters; she ONLY cares about their votes and the delegatess. What a travesty and hypcrite Hilliary is! She has no business in our White House!!
Posted by: NinaK | May 31, 2008 3:15 AM
Clinton wants to show that women are strong and don't surrender.What she has shown is that even at the highest level of endeavor some women can still be conniving.
Is that the kind of leader we want sittin at the table discussing war and peace-issues that depend on trust.
First small states didn't count-what about small nations? How many of our military allies in Iraq are"small" nations.
Clinton agrees to rules,does not dispute nor argue about them until she is in need.Some leader.
Which nation would sign a treaty,an accord a pact or anything with a government headed by a leader who constantly changes the rules to fit her needs of the moment.
International peace and security depends on leaders who are consistant and honest-not with those who have something to prove for the sake of their gender-or is it for the sake of self.
The irreperable damage that THIS woman has done to the womens movement and the equality of all Americans will last a generation.
Posted by: jerry hersch | May 31, 2008 3:17 AM
Hillary wants a democrat to win, and (as she and her followers have argued unerringly and convincingly for months, with every electoral poll proving them right) Obama can't do it. End of story. If she is smart and cares about the party (and I think she does), she WILL continue this fight until the convention.
Posted by: Kelly Brown | May 31, 2008 6:32 PM