Transit expert Bruce Schaller has got an interesting breakdown of the Census data on commuting in Gotham Gazette.
“Over the last year and a half, however, the number of non-work trips has inched downward, even after accounting for the effects of the increase in fares for unlimited ride passes in February 2005. The slide continued this spring and early summer, well after the effects of the fare change have worn off.
Why has this happened? In part, the effects of fare incentives, reduced crime and system improvements may have petered out; those people who could be lured to return to what has become a safer, cleaner and more efficient transit system have already done so.
In part, the transit system is now having to deal with the implications of its own success. Overcrowding has replaced crime as riders’ daily worry and is a major reason that customer satisfaction for subways and buses, as measured by Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) surveys, is flat or declining.
A third reason for the leveling off of non-work trips is continued problems with service reliability. MTA data show a worsening of on-time performance for both the subway and bus.”
Schaller predicts computerized train control and real time information systems will encourage more people to keep riding the rails. Interesting analysis to say the least.
-- Chuck Bennett amNY.com
