The TV Zone

This should be the easiest call in "DWTS" history - a bet so sure that that the term "sure bet" even seems inadequate. That Kristi Yamaguchi is the best of the final two, proved again last night almost effortlessly, is beyond self-evident. The judges and the show have her exactly where they want her - in the top three, and then, doubtless, into the bottom two, and finally standing alone, with Mark Ballas, at the end.

The first female victor of this show since the first season.

Kristi Yamaguchi will win tonight.

She's SUPPOSED to win tonight - that's why "DWTS" picked her in the first place. A female contestant so good - so outrageously good - that it would be theoretically impossible for her to lose. Or statistically impossible. A female champion and a chance for this show to finally shut down the chatter that viewers (overwhelmingly female) vote only for male contestants, and preferably for male contestants who show their abs as Jason Taylor did last night (oh, and not to be outdone, Cristian too.)

If Kristi doesn't win, then "DWTS" has a little problem - a dance competition that really isn't a competition, but more like a beauty contest.

Say, "Mr. America: The Hoofer Edition."

So Kristi must win. Should win. Has to win. And absolutely, indisputably WILL win.

Unless...unless...(This IS "DWTS" after all.)

Meanwhile, some of the big polls out there bear this conclusion out. AOL TV's poll this morning has her the winner. Yahoo TV's poll not only has the winner, but the massively overwhelming winner, scoring almost 60 percent of the vote (while the bottom two guys don't even crack 30 percent.)

It's over.

Here's last night's freestyle round:

This I would have liked to have seen: Tracy Turnblad, the winner of "Dancing with the Stars." But this I am not going to see. Too bad, really - but then, I've REALLY struggled to care much about this season anyway.

With Marissa Jaret Winokur/Tony Dovolani gone, this is what's gone with her - the grin, the personality, the never-say-die, and the enthusiasm so infectious and (seemingly/doubtlessly) genuine. She really DID dance as if winning this comp actually MEANT something which of course it does not. This leaves the field to the field to the final three, and quickly, let's assess their chances: 1.) Front-runner Cristian/Cheryl: Who cares whether they were in the bottom two last night. That's an old "DWTS" trick just to throw you off. He's got the looks/charm (as does Cheryl Burke) and the bad arm; that's the winning combo this season. 2.) Jason/ Edyta: Athleticism pays off, plus constant photo shoots for the likes of TV Guide/EW where he shows off his pecs. Plus, these last three-runners virtually tied with the judges Monday; they're not that far apart. 3.) Kristi/Mark: Said it before. Say it again. She won't win. Will go into final two. Audience gasp audibly when Cristian/Cheryl announced as winners. And life as we know it will go on.

(Above: How 'bout that ABC photo?!)

No surprise here: What R&B singer with the "bloody ugly feet" from Monday danced off stage forever last night?

(Personally, I thought his feet looked just fine, Len.)

Actually, Mario -- who pretty much wins hands-down for the most gracious exit speech this season -- looked positively thrilled he got voted off. (Time to get back to my career! This thing has taken up enough time already! I've got a life, for crying out loud! This is hard work! Etc.) If he was thrilled -- secretly -- I totally sympathize.

Anyway, we're on to the semifinals next week. Kristi K is the "putative winner," and was from day one, but who knows? That one-armed bandit sure looks like he could steal this whole thing yet.

I suppose Cristian said it about as well as anyone last night:"Shoulda started dancing with one arm way before..." Shoulda and probably coulda. Who says you need all your limbs to dance well, or even very well? Cristian/Cheryl had a better two-fer last night than anyone else, and -- if they keep this up -- might even win "DWTS." Even with one arm, he's still a favorite over Kristi Y because women vote for men, and she's a woman, so...

All this business last week about "will he or won't he...?" The clever and erroneous leaks to TMZ and Extra, which not only predicted but SAID he would bow out? The padded elimination show that held out on his "final decision" until the last millisecond?

A gimmick -- another one of those staged "dramas" designed to stoke interest in a show that's had little this season. There was no way Cristian was going to back out, ever. He proved last night -- beyond any shadow of a doubt -- that you can handle this comp with one arm, without even breaking a sweat.

That said, they were both very good. They got their best scores ever (a total of 57), and 29 for the Mambo. Here's the replay of that performance:

... stays!
Cristian de la Fuente,the soap-laden Chilean soap star with hips, personality, dramatic (soapy) flair and a busted arm -- plus one of the front-runners till said arm decided otherwise -- will stick with the show.

A surprise? Heck, yeah. He popped his elbow so loudly Monday you could almost hear it.

(BTW, I'm surprised and amused to see some of the wire stories this morning reporting in their leads that Shannon Elizabeth got booted -- as if that's even news! Well, ya just never know.)

TMZ and "Extra" were so certain he was gone yesterday they (basically) led their Web sites with the news. My theory? Someone snookered 'em to boost ratings. (Hell hath no fury like a snookered TMZ, so watch out "DWTS.")

Anyway, here's my breathless wrap in today's paper; sorry if you've already read this:

In an edition that was masterfully padded if not paced, "DWTS" -- and de la Fuente -- declined to reveal his decision until a couple of minutes before 10. Oh, they were tricky, those "DWTS" producers: It seemed as if he'd go. Then stay. Then go. "It'd be a tragedy down the boulevard of broken dreams if he can't continue," said a faux-mournful and indefatigably maudlin, Len Goodman, in the purplest of purple phrases of the night.

But Cristian was not to be outdone. With minutes to go -- and with the judges yet to reveal who the final two would be (Cristian and Cheryl Burke were in the bottom four) he explained that an MRI had revealed that his tendon was ruptured and surgery was required. But "I just talked to my doctor five minutes ago, and said, if he can delay the surgery and if people voted for us, I'd like to be there and not give up."

Seconds later, he and Burke won a reprieve, and will return next week. How will he dance? My half-baked theory: With one arm! Brilliant. I think he's a righty (the one that got hurt, I believe) so he just leads with his left. Plus -- no lifts, Cristian.

I think our boy can pull this off.

So you've heard the "big" news (and probably saw it too) by now: Cristian de la Fuente, who may well be the David Archuleta of this edition (or the Brooke White -- your call), hurt his arm last night, and by the looks of things, pretty severely. He had to stop either almost all the way through, or at the very end -- it's hard to determine -- and got badly penalized as a result. The judges all gave him and partner Cheryl Burke 7's, which could land them in the bottom three tonight.

(Fair? I'm not sure, but then what else are the judges supposed to do? The show must go on...)

So now the question: How did viewers respond. One can reasonably surmise he got a huge voter turnout and is safe for next week. But will his arm heal in time? And if so, will it happen again? And what caused the injury?

Here's the clip (and thanks to Dance4fun22 for posting):

Marlee Matlin gone from "Dancing with the Stars?" Surprised? Well, sure, in a way. Very much so. She and Fabian Sanchez did not put on a dancing clinic week after week, but they put on something a little better - a dancing miracle. I know this has been explained on the show endless times, and I imagine that to the hearing impaired this may come off as a slightly foolish or slightly ignorant observation - but how does one dance, or dance well, when one can not hear the music? Yet that's what Matlin did each week, and did it a hell of a lot better than I - possessed of two sound ears - could ever accomplish in my wildest or wooliest dreams.

Honestly, her's may have been one of those rare accomplishments on "Dancing with the Stars" that we'll actually remember - or at least marvel at when prompted to remember. (Heather Mills? I dunno - considering who she is, and what most people associate her with, I don't think memories of her stint on "DWTS" are especially fond.) "DWTS" - more often than not and more often this season than not - is typically a cheese factory, while who wins or who stays is of sweeping insignificance in the grand scheme of things (quick - who won last season?! Gotcha...)

But Matlin's too-brief stint here didn't feel like a gimmick on this gimmicky show; it felt like the real thing performed by someone who wanted to prove something and pretty much did. Credit goes to Sanchez, of course, and most credit to Matlin. Doesn't all this count for audience votes - even if the footwork and grace isn't always in place? I certainly thought so. Oh well - with Matlin gone, another reason to get less invested in "DWTS" this season.

Here's here mambo again; I couldn't find a Youtube of her country dance from Monday...

I liked Adam Carolla on this show, though apparently I was the only one who voted for him on Monday; people take this show so SERIOUSLY. Don't they want to have a little fun? What's the matter with a unicycle/dance routine?You've never seen it before. I'VE never seen it before. Why not? Unicycles and paso dobles go together, in some way - yet to be fully determined.

But no matter: One vote is not going to do it and Carolla and Juliane Hough are gone. (Almost) needless to say, this is a very bad thing. Carolla added those extra element so glaringly missing this season - the elements of surprise and humor (and fun.) He's not exactly a "dangerous" character, but he is unpredictable, and we so dearly hoped he would stick around to say something impolite again - something that would shock Len into silence, or force Bruno into a tirade, or make Carrie Ann stand up (and walk out). Now, we'll be saddled with politeness, and pleasantries, and predictability the rest of the way.

And oh yeah, Kristi Yamaguchi is still the best.

For those who want to see the paso doble on wheels one more time, here it is:

This is too bad, insofar as I liked the Goot - Steve Guttenberg: Liked his style, sense of fun, and overall grace. But...well...ummm...the salad mixing bowl. I'm fairly certain that wearing a salad mixing bowl on this particular national TV show is not a way to win.

Whatever. Who cares. Salad. Bowls. Mixing. He got tossed (groan) off tonight, and that's that. Still surprised. I figured he'd be around a while. Here's the non-winning performance from Tuesday, salad bowl and all. (And if you don't care to watch again - understood - on Tuesday he puts on the salad bowl, to deflect flak from the judges...)

You know I'd just LOVE to sit here and bang out some blog item about how swell last night's "DWTS" was, but when you realize that quite possibly the only interesting contestant was Adam Carolla, then you know we've got serious problems.

What is it about "DWTS" this season? Is it just me - a crank, in the best of circumstances - or does it all feel so pat and tired and old, very old. I feel older just watching it.

This is not the way "Dancing with the Stars" is supposed to be. There should be some drama, and bountiful silliness, a fainting spell or two. But everyone just seems to be going through the steps. Case in point: Kristi Yamaguchi, who is so good that this competition, such as it is, ended the first night. She's pure talent and has so much polish and skill and is so ridiculously over-qualified for this thing that it feels, or rather is, lop-sided beyond belief.

If she loses - and of course she will - it will merely reaffirm the notion, already well-established, that women can't win this show (and haven't since after the first season.) Yet last night? She was fine, but boring - terribly boring. Got nines. Big deal. Who cares. She's a pro.

The other contestants? I can't even muster enough enthusiasm to babble about them this morning; it's your job. I haven't the heart.

And by the way, this isn't an April Fool's joke.

Come on, "DWTS." Wake up. Get some fire in yer belly. Pretend this is exciting and a competition. It shouldn't be THAT hard.

You woke up this morning, wondering. "Why were the Jonas Brothers on 'DWTS' last night? Why was something that coulda been, shoulda been over in ten seconds, expanded to two full bloated insanely dull hours...? And I was so sick of all the padding and commercials that I went to bed early, and now don't even have a clue who got voted off last night?"

And that, my friends, is what I was put on this earth for: To tell you who got voted off of "Dancing with the Stars" last night...

Without any further padding of my own...and I do mean, no padding...they were...

Drum roll...

(Isn't this exciting...?)

Oops, I forgot. I already put their names in the headline.

That's right: Big Boy, or Big Foot, or Young Frankenstein. AKA Penn Jillette. He's gone. And so is Monica Seles.

This is not a surprise. I repeat: This is not a surprise. Reason is that at this early stage, if you have a really lousy judge score (counting for one half of your total) it's just about impossible to muster much audience support either. They had the lowest scores, ergo...adios.

But I'll still miss Big Foot. Comic relief is important in shows bloated to a full two hours. Plus, I was hoping he'd regale the audience at some point with his own version of "The Aristocrat."

(Above, great players do not always make great dancers...)

Well, I'm thinking tonight's double-elimination is probably one of the easiest calls in "DWTS" history. First of all, Monica. Great tennis player. Not great dancer. Last night was a deal-sealer, because whatever she did...I don't even fully recall...was not so much a display of incompetence as much a display of boredom. "This dancing business...ho hum...couldn't be bothered..." She's scored (I believe) 15 two weeks in a row, which simply means she'd need an extraordinary audience turn-out to overcome the judge liability.

That won't happen.

And...Penn. Comedy on the dance floor is fine - but trick ties, and voodoo dolls, and other tricks of the comedian/magician trade become distractions almost as much as the size 22 feet. Again, the judges penalized him last night (no score ever given for "comedy timing") which means another massive turn-out by viewers is needed. That just won't happen either.

Why not Carolla? Good question, and you could certainly call it a toss-up, I imagine, but there was a whole lotta redeeming going on last night. The "Mitch" business as a way of explaining away his "bitch" comment to Carrie Ann? That might just annoy viewers, while a simple apology might've worked a hell of a lot better. Who'll for for AC - who displayed major improvement last night BTW? Maybe radio fans. But that's a real stretch.

But only two can go tonight and my picks are Penn and Monica.

Here's Monica one more time; can't bear to watch Penn again...

The winner! (Um, already?)

Oh, I'm on to your game, "Dancing with Stars." Oh, yes I am.

Can't fool Uncle Verne. It's so obvious, so ridiculously obvious, that no one will be fooled.

The women are pretty good to excellent, overall. The guys are horrific to good, overall. Do we smell a trend here?

We do. Why have they stacked the odds in favor of the women? Because - of course - women don't vote for women contestants, and "DWTS" is simply attempting to tilt the balance so dramatically in their favor this season that there will be - that there CAN be - no doubt whatsoever that a woman should win "DWTS." A woman MUST win this season; it's the only way the franchise will keep a shred of credibility, otherwise the word will be out, more or less officially, that only guys can win this show, because women viewers are voting for them.

Guys? Honestly - I think I'm the only one on the planet who actually watches "DWTS."

Kristi Yamaguchi was so accomplished last night that she's already secured a final four position - unless the ghost of Sabs Bryan returns to prove once again that (only) the good die young on "DWTS." (And knowing "DWTS," she will...)

Let's break 'em down:

Shannon Elizabeth/Derek Hough: Sets the tone for the whole evening, with a surprisingly good open round; Hough's great so that shouldn't be a surprise, but Eliz? Who'da figured. All legs and torso. Her Achilles heel: women voters, who will likely discover she was in Maxim or some such mag. That won't help. No, it won't.

Monica Seles/Jonathan Roberts: Youth and athleticism. Those were the things I thought she had in her favor. But last night's performance was so somnolent that I nodded off then fell into a deep dreamless sleep. But...that said, she was still competent.

Marissa Jaret Winokur/Tony Dovolani: Tracy Turnblad brings it on home. Man, I just knew the actress in Marissa would trump whatever other deficiencies she might bring to this thing, but you know what? There's raw potential here, and with that big 'ol smile and show biz savvy, I see her as a contender for weeks to come.

Priscilla Presley/Louis Van Amstel: Again, a shocker! What I like about Priscilla is that deep - almost ridiculously deep - sense of purpose. She's so so serious. But that paid off because she took a relatively complicated routine and worked it out nicely. Again, I see HER around for a while, too. And there was also a very telling comment by Sam Harris: "You need to vote guys..." That's right. They need to, but will they?

Kristi Yamaguchi/Mark Ballas: You already know what I think. She's so absurdly good that this whole comp is suddenly over. Good thing ABC needs to stretch this out through the May sweeps... She was actually fun to watch, and "fun" doesn't usually come into the equation in the first round.

Marlee Matlin/Fabian Sanchez: And so it went - a female contestant who was solid on her feet again, and "solid" in a good way. She's someone else who's on this show for a while.

Big Hair is good. Very good.

Front-runner. Night One.

So let's get straight to it: The guys are weak. Not awful. Just weak. Add 'em all up together, and you end up with "average." Which isn't good enough.

Of course, there were exceptions, though the best performances last night were still only OK, and enhanced by the ol' charm factor.

Will a guy win the sixth season of "Dancing with the Stars?" With statistics and past history as indicators, the answer is yes. But based on last night, the answer is no.

Let's break 'em on down:

Penn Jillette/Kym Johnson: He absolutely reminded me of that classic sequence in "Young Frankenstein" when Gene Wilder first introduced his gorgeous creation to the world, and what did Frank do? Dance a soft-shoe on stage. "DWTS" seems to think comic relief was missing from last season, but I'm not sure viewers come to this for laughs. Penn was certainly funny. Bantering with Bruno about card tricks, the latter says: "I've done a few tricks in my life." Penn: "We don't wanna go there..." No, we don't.

Jason Taylor/Edyta Sliwinska: Like this Dolphin so far, and the best example of charisma trumping raw talent (OK, maybe Cristian is the best example, but more on that in a sec.) He's got game and humor and a sense of purpose, and you need all three to click with the viewer at home. So he'll be fine through the opening weeks. Problem is perspective: This combo LOOKS odd, because he's six six and 255 pounds. Edyta is (like) half his size.

Cristian de La Fuente/Cheryl Burke: I see great possibilities here, and you know darn well that so does Cheryl who - I would bet my bottom nickel - insisted on the Mad Chilean after having to slump around the stage with Wayne Newton last year. She wants to win again, and probably insisted on a comer as opposed to a loser. He's got pure charisma, and so does she, but he's gotta cut down a bit on that vanity; women voters may swoon at first, but the act will wear thin. He needs to project "sincerity..." He's an actor - should be able to figure it out.

Adam Carolla/Julianne Hough: Well, you just know this one's doomed. Why did "DWTS" producers decide on this act? I can tell you why. The show - and ABC - want to enrich the male demo on the show, because it's skewing too heavily female. More guys watching means an even bigger audience, and maybe a possibility that they'll vote for women contestants. (Women viewers usually seem to vote for male contestants...) But only problem - Adam could be voted off first. He's funny. That might count for something. But likely not.

Mario/Karina Smirnoff: We're on to ya, "DWTS." Those little openers are dead giveaways to performances, always. Karina has a herniated disk. Oh, doom, doom! And of course they were just fine. Mario's the male front-runner - not quite David Archuleta, perhaps, but the guy to beat so far.

Steve Guttenberg/Anna Trebunskaya: Yeah, my first thought too: Steve has had a lot of work done, and by that I mean, "face-lift." He's been completely re-modeled, and my sincere compliments to the surgeon who did the honors. But bless 'im - who cares? He's in Hollywood! You just don't let your face fall and call it a day. In the city of perpetual youth, youth must be served and preserved. Steve's feet did a reasonable job last night too. I think he's on this show for a while - maybe quite a while. People will like his charm and enthusiasm - I believe it's called "infectious." Plus, he'll start giving plugs for his charity, and that'll seal the deal. How could you vote off a guy who has his name on a major charity? You can't! Steve's good to go, plus how savvy can you get? He wished his parents a happy 50th. Oh you're good, Guttenberg. You're very good.

Mr. Hollywood. A keeper - for now.

I never learn. Never ever... I know full well that Kristi Yamaguchi should easily win this season's (the sixth already; how time flies) "Dancing with the Stars" but by so saying, I know now that she won't. Just because she's a world-class athlete? Has performed in a thousand ice shows? Knows how to work audiences? Has a gifted pro by her side (Mark Ballas?)

I'm onto your game, "Dancing." Won't be fooled again. Know you always like to put in a "can't miss" contestant, just to EMBARRASS me when I post my odds, and just to make everyone think, "oh, it's over already..."

It isn't. Simply consider - the odds are far in favor of a guy winning.

Anyway, here are my odds. (This is a repeat of those published in today's paper, so if you've seen 'em already, sorry...)

Adam Carolla/Julianne Hough: "The Man Show" man, and LA radio personality. Amusing fellow though, one wonders, how will this act play with the predominantly female voting base? Odds: 24:1.

Cristian de La Fuente/Cheryl Burke: Chilian actor, and VERY ugly. Plenty of U.S.TV exposure but low name recognition. That could hurt, but not too much. Also, shades of Helio? Also, Cheryl; I believe she's a two-time winner, and after getting stuck with last season's comic relief (Wayne Newton) probably wants to step into winner's circle again. Odds: 7:1.

Shannon Elizabeth/Derek Hough: Actress ("Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back") and, I hear, a pretty good poker player. But will she rate here? Unlikely - guys usually (in fact, just about always) win. Odds: 25:1.

Steve Guttenberg/Anna Trebunskaya: Most of us remember Steve back when he was famous ("Diner," et al.) But what have you done for us lately Steve? He's head of something called the Guttenberg House which helps foster kids. Ladies will LOVE that. But this feels like a Mark Cuban kinda entry; he's serious but probably doesn't expect a win. Odds: 8-1.

Mario/Karina Smirnoff: Ah, youth. Mario's 21 and also very ugly. Best known of the male celebs here, although demo that watches this show (post 35-year-olds) will think Mario is some kind of an Italian guy. He knows how to rap, but dance? Can probably learn pretty easy if he doesn't. Odds: 10-1.

Marlee Matlin/Fabian Sanchez: Plenty 'o TV exposure, but missing that one...big...break (since "Children of a Lesser God.") She's one of my favorites to go far. Odds: 5:1.

Penn Jillette/Kym Johnson: Great to have PJ here; he'll add that rare caustic element. Also, I can hardly wait for "DWST" to start showing outtakes from "P&T: Bull&%$@!" or "The Aristocrats." Odds: 200:1.

Priscilla Presley/Louis Van Amstel: She's in that sweet spot, demographically, with vast name recognition. Love her chances to go far, but not into winners' circle. Odds: 7:1.

Monica Seles/Jonathan Roberts: Youth and athleticism and (of course) winner's spirit. But I just don't think voters'll go all the way for her. Odds: 10:1.

Jason Taylor/Edyta Sliwinska: The Dolphins?! (Gulp.) But like Mario and Cristian, he's very VERY ugly. That said, I like his chances best of all the guys. Odds: 4:1.

Marissa Jaret Winokur/Tony Dovolani: Love the thought of Tracy Turnblad winning "DWTS." She's a very good actress too, which counts for a great deal on "DWTS." Odds: 6:1.

Kristi Yamaguchi/Mark Ballas: On paper (and maybe on-screen), KY is unbeatable. Forget the skating championships - millions of them - it's the ice show tours that give her such a huge edge here. She makes it to the final two, unless she's done in by that "why vote for her because she's so good" syndrome, which did in Sabrina Bryan last year. Can a woman win this show (ever again)? That's the big question. Odds: 3:1.

Who’s dancing who?

Here’s who, from ABC's “Dancing With the Stars” pairings announcement on this morning’s “Good Morning America”:

ADAM CAROLLA & JULIANNE HOUGH – The big mouth and the cutie pie.

SHANNON ELIZABETH & DEREK HOUGH – Julianne’s brother gets another Jennie Garth-type.

CRISTIÁN DE LA FUENTE & CHERYL BURKE – The telenovela star is a waaaay better deal for multi-champ Cheryl than last year’s Wayne Newton.

STEVE GUTTENBERG & ANNA TREBUNSKAYA – Anna is married to professional dancer Jonathan Roberts, who gets . . .

MONICA SELES & JONATHAN ROBERTS – Let’s hope Monica doesn’t faint. (Jonathan had to catch Marie Osmond last season.)

PENN JILLETTE & KYM JOHNSON – Well, if Kym could cope with Jerry Springer . . .

MARIO & KARINA SMIRNOFF – Another Mario for Karina, who previously taught Mario Lopez.

MARLEE MATLIN & FABIAN SANCHEZ – The professional newcomer is, according to ABC, “the 2006 World Mambo Champion, a four-time Fred Astaire National Champion and the United States Rising Star, and the 1999 American Rhythm Champion.” But can he sign?

PRISCILLA PRESLEY & LOUIS VAN AMSTEL – Priscilla seems a less likely musical mover than Monique Coleman, Louis’ previous partner.

MARISSA JARET WINOKUR & TONY DOVOLANI – At least this Broadway babe has a head start in movement over Jane Seymour.

JASON TAYLOR & EDYTA SLIWINSKA – Two hot numbers, together at last!

KRISTI YAMAGUCHI & MARK BALLAS – Mark got robbed with Sabrina Bryan last time.

Their stepping starts on ABC March 17.

Oh, dear. If only Kenny Mayne in sparkly eye shadow were half as amusing as the sad little sportscaster thinks he is. If only "Dance War" were one-tenth as enjoyable as those screaming-Meemies in the audience pretend it is. If only network television weren't circling the drain in the commode at this very moment.

But I digress.

Just minutes ago, ABC announced the cast of this spring's "Dancing With the Stars" during Monday night's two-hour finale of "Dance War." (Please, please, make it go away now. Forever. "Solid Gold" reruns would be better.)

The newbies hitting the "DWTS" floor as of March 17:

Deaf actress Marlee Matlin ("The West Wing," photo at right) – How much do we love this choice? Martin Sheen next!

Elvis ex Priscilla Presley (late of "Dallas") – Take THAT, Heather Mills! (Or should we be saying that about Marlee? Never mind.)

Penn Jillette, crabby magician/debunker – I know who I'm cheering for right now. Tom Bergeron, watch your back.

Adam Carolla, ex-"The Man Show"/radio big-mouth – I am so, so sorry, Julianne Hough.

Kristi Yamaguchi, Olympic skating star – And what happens if hubby Bret Hedican's Carolina Hurricanes make the NHL playoffs just as "DWTS" hits its climax? What then?!

NFL hottie Jason Taylor – The Miami Dolphins defensive end has great abs. (Evidence in photo at right.) I think "DWTS" drooler Lisa Rinna mentioned this six or 12 times in announcing his casting. Imagine the costume possibilities. (Take THAT, Kenny Mayne!)

Tennis (ex-)star Monica Seles – Well, she did play herself on that episode of "The Nanny."

Marissa Jaret Winokur, Broadway's "Hairspray" – She survived costarring opposite Pamela Anderson on "Stacked." Anything is possible.

Steve Guttenberg, "Three Men and a Baby" – Once he's back on the radar, beware "Police Academy 17." Or "Meet the Santas 7."

R&B singer Mario – Let America love him.

Shannon Elizabeth – Bye, bye, Miss American Pie.

Christian De La Fuente – Chilean-born telenovela heartthrob. Who?

Mark your calendars — although you’re probably gonna know everything way ahead of time, thanks to all those Internet leakers out there.

But if you’re oblivious to such leakage, ABC is gonna announce the cast of the next edition of “Dancing with the Stars” on Feb. 18 (between 8 and 10 p.m.) during the finale of “Dance War.”

They'll do it in an ESPN-inspired "Dance Center" format, hosted by Kenny Mayne, Jerry Rice and Lisa Rinna.This is the first time the cast of “DWTS” will be announced in primetime, for those who keep track of such things.

Already the rumor mill is pumping out names of possible contestants. Last week, my blogging colleague and "DWTS" maven Verne Gay deftly parried the H. Rodham Clinton rumors — although having her hubby go on the show might be a really neat way of getting him off the campaign trail. As the photo shows, Bill can look mighty dapper on the dance floor.

(“DWTS” returns March 17. Yep, it would be great to see ex-POTUS doing a nice clog dance for St Patrick’s Day, no?)

Yes, this story was way to good to be true - another joyously ridiculous example of our over-entertained age - but now the question is: What this just another one of those web hoaxes (that are too good to be true?)

I'm speaking of that Hillary Clinton invite to "Dancing with the Stars" that made the rounds everywhere yesterday. The genesis of it was a little difficult to track - TMZ claims it had the story first, though TVGuide.com lays authorship off on "ET."

What am I talking about? Simply this - and I quote fully from the TVGuide.com story:

"ET reports that [Dancing with the Stars] invited the presidential hopeful to appear on the tour after she expressed an interest in the show during an interview with Tyra Banks. (Clinton said that if she had to choose between appearing on America's Next Top Model or Dancing, she'd go with the latter.)"

That's it; yuk yuk. We were all left to ponder Hillary doing the Mambo with Derek Hough or maybe Jonathan Roberts. And also wonder: Why would "DWTS" send her a letter to join the tour when they know full well that she'd have no intention of joining? Ever.

Yuk yuk.

But what if this was all one of those dumb stunts, cooked up to fool the press (and maybe embarass a candidate too)?

TMZ claims it got a copy of a letter/invite from the show, and has posted it on its site. (It takes a little while to download; be patient.) But something like this, of course, would be very easy to fake.

I tried to get a comment from ABC, and they sent me to "DWTS'" uber-PR agency, Solters.

Here was their one-line response, received last night: "We weren't able to confirm the letter's authenticity."

I'll leave it to you to figure out the meaning of this. It seems obvious to me.

As it turns out, "Dancing with the Stars" WAS a good career move for my favorite hoofer, Marie Osmond. The big news (so far) out of that boozy programfest known as NATPE - on-going as we speak - is that Ms. O will host a talk show in the fall of 2009.

Her personal guarantee: No dancing. No fainting.

Just kidding. Marie's unpredictable; she could end up doing both. In any event, Marie held a press conference a little white ago, saying that the production company backing this new baby (Program Partners) is "giving me the freedom to do some things that I feel strongly about, and the timing is right for a show like this."

Why is "the timing right for a show like this?" I have no idea - I wasn't there to ask her. But Marie's done a few other talkers, including something she did with Donny back in the late '90s.

Helio in the winner's circle - again.

I woke up this morning and went on a long run.

Actually, a run to the bathroom, which took me about five seconds. But in that span of time, many thoughts occurred to me about "Dancing with the Stars," and as I passed the mirror, it gave me an opportunity to continue that conversation I had with Myself yesterday. Here's an edited transcript:

ME: My God, what an awful show last night. Tacky, cheesy, gross. All those plugs for "Dance War." I think I counted fifty-nine. And the noise - Tom Bergeron shouted the whole bloody two hours. My ears still hurt. And imagine, Helio - the Mad Brazilian - winning. There's no justice in "Dancing" land, just voters who haven't got a clue.

MYSELF: Heh heh heh...well [head nodding], as a president once said, there you go again. An "awful" show? It was awe-inspiring! All that fog, and glitter. It felt like I was at the Blue Martini in Bally's Atlantic City.

ME: To each his own.

MYSELF: And what do you know about "DWTS?" You were the guy who predicted Sabrina would win. You were the guy who said a woman would win this time. You were the guy who said MARIE would win! I'm afraid there is what might be called a 'credibility gap' with your coverage of this fine program.

ME: Credibility gap!! Can I help it that the people who voted are idiots! I'm not the one who got Marie into the final rounds. Someone out there was voting for her. And if you or anyone else out there thinks Helio is a better dancer that Mel B., then there's no hope for any of you. And you've gotta be kidding about the Blue Martini, right? When were we even there...?

Dancing with the Stars photos

ME: Cynic.

MYSELF: Good. Left you speechless for a change. Now, I think I'll go and watch a repeat of this wonderful show on ABC.com. I wonder if writers will get paid residuals when I do that....

So it all comes down to this utterly ridiculously and improbable line: Marie Osmond is in the finals of "Dancing with the Stars."

My sources on the show tell me...who am I kidding? I have no sources on "Dancing with the Stars." Sourcing is immaterial. This whole show, at least this whole fifth edition, is so utterly counterintuitive that any opinion is pretty much valid (or irrelevant). Me? I discuss the show with Myself. Here's the conversation Me and Myself held this morning.

ME: Man, that Marie Osmond sure performed one of the strangest freestyle dances in the history of freestyle dancing last night.

MYSELF: Yes, pal! That's the genius of Marie Osmond. She's so bad she's good.

ME: What the hell are you talking about?

MYSELF: Let me explain, then. That part where Jonathan dumped her at the end like a sack of leaden potatoes, and where she almost trips over his leg and ends up on her head? Brilliant. You see, it just reinforced the rag doll motif. Oh, that Marie, she knows what she's doing.

ME: You have lost it. I guess watching this show week after week, and wondering how Marie Osmond is in the finals while Sabrina Bryan got slammed out weeks ago can do that to someone. You have my pity.

MYSELF: Whatever - I get the last word AND the last laugh because millions of people have already voted for her and she'll win this whole thing tonight. Why? Because the people who watch this show apparently love her, and because she's an American - the other two obviously ain't - and because they can relate to her. It's all about popularity, and maybe misguided nationalism (as nationalism can often be). Not talent.

And so it goes. Here's my wrap:

Scary: If there was justice in the topsy-turvy land of "DWTS," Mel B. would be the winner, hands-down - no ifs, no ands, no buts. But there is no justice, and frankly, last night was only OK. On the entertainment front, the first dance was kinda boring - proficient but boring. Then, the freestyle: The lifts, like that half-pivot-over-the-head-half-nelson-thingamajigee, were pretty amazing. But Len had it right - it didn't really flow.

Marie: Ya know, I actually liked her samba.Thought it was reasonably OK (for Marie), but best of all, actually a pretty lively and entertaining version. After that drab text-book performance by Scary, it even looked better. So Marie lucks out here. Then the rag doll: The judges despised it with a justifiable fury, and Bruno had his best line of the whole season ("it's Baby Jane and Bride of Chucky.."). But again, it was entertaining - bizarrely entertaining. I can see her fans out there rationalizing their vote for her on the basis of that alone. (Her fans have had to do a lot of rationalizing this season already, so why not a little more rationalizing?)

Meanwhile, I'm still sticking by this fearless prediction: Marie Osmond is the next winner of "DWTS."

Helio: Finally, Helio. My favorite male dancer of the season. Great to see you still here, Mario. That smile. That pizazz. The competitive streak a mile and a quarter wide. The guy's terrific. But he's not going to win tonight. First of all, his jive was pretty bad - even Me and Myself could tell his footwork was way off. And while the judges loved his freestyle, my mind kinda wandered during the routine.
I was thinking of Bette Davis, and grinning homicidal blood-spattered dolls, and "Bride of Chucky," which starred - per my faulty recollection - Katherine Heigl, who sure doesn't brag about that role these days, and...

This is the great thing about Tarot cards: They tell you who will win "Dancing with the Stars." And thanks to AOL, which just sent me this highly important piece of news, the next winner of "DWTS" will be...Marie Osmond. (Note: I've already predicted this - twice now, I think - which given my iffy track record in these matters, may well mean that she won't win.) Here's the prediction from Jeff Jawer of Tarot.com, who gave AOL his pre-game-show wrap: "The winner may well turn out to be Marie Osmond, whose fainting spell on air has been this season's most dramatic moment. None of the stars have ideal astrological transits on the 27th, but the planets are extremely kind to Marie on Monday the 26th, which should carry her over the threshold."

Makes perfect sense to me. Now Jeff, about this writers' strike...

I'm beginning to think Marie Osmond will win this whole thing. The way she keeps avoiding the hook. The way fans keep voting for her. She's a magician - not a dancer. Really, it would all make sense: Americans end up voting for the AMERICAN and not the Mad Brazilian or Mel B. "Scary." They've got accents. Marie doesn't. This could happen. It very well may.

Of course you know by now that Jennie Garth is gone. That was not unexpected, even if she did have her best night of this edition on Monday. And now, it's looking better and better for Marie O.

Everyone will be talking about Scary going into tonight's big vote-off, but let's talk briefly here about Jennie G. She had a terrific night last night - maybe her best in all these weeks, and what a surprise if she gets the ol' bump. It could happen, given what she's up again - aforementioned Mel B., Marie "I Should be Running for President" Osmond and Helio, the Mad Brazilian.

But of everyone, I kinda think she’s the one who best exemplifies the spirit of this show - that sort of can-do attitude and willingness to learn/experiment/take risks as you go along. It's paid off, but that said...

Anyway, my quick wrap:

Marie O: Clever girl. Very clever. Once again, in her opener, she worked her older fans with that routine danced to "Good Morning" from "Singin' in The Rain." But this time, I think she outsmarted herself: When you dance to one of the great musical numbers in MGM history, you've gotta realize that a few million viewers have the scene with Debbie Reynolds/Donald O'Connor/Gene Kelly permanently etched in their memories. As a result, Marie O and Jonathan looked slow, tired, lead-footed by comparison. I found her second routine interminable, but the judges loved it; she could still be in this race.

Scary: A couple of perfect tens pretty much buys a trip to the final, and Mel B. certainly deserves one and has since the first night of the season (as did Sabs, but that's another story.) Both her routines were great - entertaining, a little weird, forbidding, dazzling. A whip! What as that?! Four splits in a row! What was that?! Pure in-your-face-top-THAT-Marie-and-Jennie zeal and chutzpah. The winner. Almost.

Jennie: I've said my piece here, but let's say she does get tossed tonight - and that could happen. This is as good an opportunity to say something nice about her partner Derek Hough: That guy was just stunning. Jennie would never have gotten this far without him, and I think - watching them week after week - that he complemented her perfectly; he was near perfect Fred Astairian form, with a good actor's sense of timing and drama. What was that line about Astaire and Rogers? She gave him sex; he gave her class? Derek gave Jennie floor smarts, and she made him look even smarter in return.

Helio: He was so good last night and so pumped that I can't POSSIBLY imagine a vote-off tonight. His ballroom dance was perfect, best I could tell, and the cha-cha - that red thing that ended the show - was fine too. I imagine we have two women and a man going into next week.

A couple weeks from the finals and Mel B. and Maksim have clearly and unequivocally cut to the front of the dance line. What does that mean? Really, nothing much because voters do what voters do, and already there's been one travesty this season (Sabs.) But by bringing up the shank end of last night's show - and an excellent end at that - I think these guys are safe. Plus, they almost scored a third perfect ten.

Here's my run-down:

Jennie: Oh boy. Ohhh boy. Not a good night, and I really don't know why. She started off with that foxtrot, which was a blur of elbows and knees, plus that He-Tarzan-Me-Jane sequined outfit didn't help. The second dance, the waltz, again didn't work for me, either, even though it did theoretically play to her number one (and two) strengths - poise and elegance. I fear she's vulnerable tonight.

Cam: Oh boy. Ohhh boy. Not a good night as well. This one's not so much a mystery because Cam, who's been the single biggest surprise in this comp, was straight-jacketed by the waltz; Len described the second outing as "paint by numbers." Good line. Wished I'd thought of it.

Marie: She continues to fascinate me, this Marie. "Dad taught me the show must go on...this is for my dad. It truly is for my dad..." Amazing! Your father dies just days ago and you still pull out show biz cliches that are so old that even the hair has fallen off of them. And then Donny in the audience with tears: My God, they're a team and he's not even on the dance floor. Despite two incredibly ho-hum outings, though, Marie is safer than Fort Knox. No one's gonna dump her after THAT performance. Really, she's a master performer: It's not about the dance but about the camera, and she knows exactly how to play to it.

Helio: A split decision. The first dance, the paso doble, hardly stirred anyone from their seats, while the second - the quick step, or Bruno's "blazing banana" - helped somewhat. But it was still a strange ending - a whole new dance routine called the "Kiss and Dump," in which one partner is kissed and quite literally dumped. Julianne almost bounced off the dance floor, poor thing.

Scary: As mentioned, the front runner and a good night. That is, IF voters judge merely by what's on the dance floor alone. At this stage, what's off the floor is almost equally important and I wonder about the wisdom of bringing in her boorish husband (at least boorish for this segment) for the pre-dance segment. Nevertheless, she had an excellent cap, and that's what the voters (hopefully) will remember.

Offering a helping hand. (Courtesy: GMA.)

On the off chance you missed last night's "Dancing with the Stars," we offer once again our weekly public service "DWTS" news flash: In this instance, the news is not good for Jane Seymour. Yes, she was voted off last night and judging from the absolute silence of the audience - no gasps, no shrieks, no one yelling out "this cannot BE!! - I have to assume that the ejection was expected. But not by me. Like Marie O, she's been a shrewd judge of this show and its audience minions, and seems to understand that celebrity always trumps talent. Anyway, here's to Jane: Over the last two months, she's displayed some surprising athleticism (and poise.) Sure, in comparison to Sabs she performed in slow-mo, but then, who didn't?

Courtesy: Lifetime

In case you haven't heard, Marie Osmond's father, George, died early this morning. He was 90. Here's the AP account, "George Osmond, father of the famous singing family The Osmond Brothers, has died.Osmond passed away Tuesday morning in Utah. He was 90-years-old.A cause of death was not immediately available.The death was first reported by 'Entertainment Tonight's' Web site and was confirmed by The Associated Press through a spokeswoman for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, of which Osmond was a member.Donny Osmond was in the ET studio getting ready to tape a segment for a show when he learned of his father's death. Marie Osmond performed Monday night on 'Dancing With the Stars.'"

Suffice it to say, she'll be off tonight's results show; Jane Seymour's mother died Oct. 1. She was 92. I'll leave it to tacky culture vultures (like AOL) to talk about some "curse."

With Sabs gone, "Dancing with the Stars" is no longer about the best dancer but about the best politician: Who can con the audience into making it THINK they are the best, or at least the most desirable or deserving. Also, who can pull those many millions off their duffs to the phone to vote for them.

What a strange show.

And another observation about the now-Sabrina-Bryan-less "DWTS:" It feels very very old, even with Scary still around. In demographic terms, "DWTS" was always the polar opposite of "American Idol" (broadbased audience that nonetheless aged slightly last season). It really appeals to the 55-plus crowd, which pretty much explains why I now realize that anyone under 35 - or at least any WOMAN under 35 for some inexplicable reason - stands little to no chance of winning this thing. I guess all this means is that Jane Seymour is the front-runner now, while Scary B (32) is a goner, no matter how good she is.

Last night's two-fer show was strange too. The first half was blearingly dull; the second half (Latin dance) was better but still, "DWTS" is feeling creaky to me now. Sabs...Albert...Floyd. The young, no matter how good they are, are being penalized simply because older viewers won't vote for them, and young viewers really don't watch this show.

My wrap:

Helio: The first dance was clipped, the second much better. But I think Helio's had much better weeks than this one. In my book, only a middling night.

Marie: What a tough, calculating, show biz pro this woman is! Shrewd as they come, too. No wonder Marie Osmond's kept herself in the spotlight for so many years; she's got a spine of steel, even if she's got the dancing talent of....ME! That "Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy" number - you're not fooling anyone, Marie. Pulling the heartstrings of your geriatric fans. And planting that big one on Len! Oh, you're good, girl. You're good.

Scary: The first outing was merely OK, and Carrie Ann got it exactly right when she observed that it was slightly out of sync, explaining why this thing seemed clunky even when it was forcefully elegant. The second dance was the salvation - perfect tens. But don't be complacent, Mel. You don't want fans to think you're the frontrunner, or they won't vote for you. (The Sabs principle.) I now fear they won't vote for you anyway.

Jane: Another tough, cagey show biz veteran., Jane knows exactly what she's doing and saying. She's a master. (You don't stay in the TV game all these years by being shy and demure.) I thought her dances were dull - but, in the taste category, far superior to the Turkish belly romp she attempted last week.

Jennie: The judges hated both dances; I thought both were wonderful. But what do I know?

Cam: I'm Cam's biggest fan. He's terrific. The guy can do no wrong, and his last outing of the night was absolutely - far and away - the most enjoyable two minutes of the entire night.
Which is another way of saying: Cam, you better start getting worried...

Yes, by now you surely know the big news and if you don't, then here it goes...sit down...take a deep breath...drink the coffee...let the dog out...back at the terminal? Okay, here it is:

Sabrina Bryan was voted off "DWTS" last night.

What can I say that Bruno didn't already? ("Vooote, peeeeple. You muz voote...") That's certainly part of it, but there's more. Cam - one of the most improved of the hoofers - was in the bottom two. That didn't make any sense either.

So what can I say? I feel cheetah'd - that's what. Sabs is just another Melinda Doolittle - someone so far and away better than anyone else that viewers just ASSUME that she'll power her way on to the finals by sheer force of ability. Why text-message in a vote or pick up the phone? No reason! She's so good that you don't NEED to vote for her. "DWTS" tried to nullify the (what I call) "Doolittle Effect" by apportioning judge votes with viewer ones; that way if a team scores a perfect thirty (as Scary did the other night), then the chances of getting the boot are minimized.

But still...if no one at home votes, then what's the point of even a perfect thirty? Yes, Sabs was done in because she WAS so good - so far and away better than any other clod-hopper here that viewers figured they didn't need to bother.

Nevertheless, this looks bad for "DWTS," or rather makes the show look bad. Imagine: Marie Osmond advances while Sabrina Bryan is dumped? Who's kidding who here? It's not a talent contest; it's barely even a popularity one (yes, Jane Seymour and Marie have better name recognition, but they're not exactly major A-list celebs either.) It's about a flawed system that's entirely dependent on the flawed voting habits of a few million people. That's it. Hence, Sabs goes.

Plus, I have yet another theory: Sabs was simply too good and viewers - mostly older - were turned off by her. They'd much rather see Marie faint and stumble, or Jane in some silly tutu; to watch Sabs was to remind us each of our own considerable lack of ability. She wasn't - as political consultants might say - "relatable."

Plus, one more little theory: She was also hurt by getting the post position on Monday. It (the foxtrot) was one of her weaker performances, and by the time voters got around to punching the buttons, they'd entirely forgotten about it.

That's it. No more over-baked theories. There are other more important things to think about (let me re-phrase that: There are IMPORTANT things to think about.)

But Sabs is gone. Sigh. Happy Halloween.

Welcome to the Most Important Show on Television! Or the MIST, when the writers' strike is called early Thursday morning. (Okay, IF it's called.) In a lackluster - or actually pretty abysmal - season so far, "DWTS" is king or queen, in part because the show's not prey to that new phenom known as "live plus 7," when a show's overall rating is actually accrued over a week's time. Most viewers, I imagine, check out "DWTS" in real time, or "live," which makes it a genuine water-cooler show. With a looming writers strike, that should only add to its, ummm, watercoolerishness.

Last night? Mostly blah. (That will NOT add to its watercoolerishness.) The first three contestants underwhelmed, though Scary overwhelmed. Let's get to our wrap:

Sabs: Clever the way they - she - got in all those plugs for the Cheetah Girls movie; was this a commercial or pre-dance routine. I couldn't be sure. Sabs, as always, was good, but I think the judges (at least Len and Bruno) nailed it: This foxtrot seemed like a lot of hard angles, with abrupt moves and grooves. She's far better than anyone else, but tonight was a passion-free zone.

Jennie: Her mambo was tacky; all those frills and all that booty-shaking. Come on! She's become one of the best dancers in the comp, or at least one of the gutsier ones. She's better than THIS silly display.

Jane: If Jennie was tacky, this was beyond tacky. I can't even think of a word - OK, tawdry, way beneath Jane. And that outfit! (Not the one pictured here, of course, which is actually quite nice, I think.) Calling Britney.

Cam: I may be the only one in the country, the world, who thought Cam really nailed last night's samba; the music was perfect, and his dancing excellent. He goes up in my estimation every week.

Scary: Queen o' the night. A really first-rate performance (the rhumba.) Nothing about it that missed, in my humble - and admittedly ignorant - opinion. But what the heck? Who else knows anything about sambas or mambos or bambas or whatever. Most of us are lead-foot ignoramuses; all we can do is judge the overall aesthetic quality of a dance routine (or: If we like it, it's good). Scary was best of the night.

Marie: Fright night for Marie. This is her last night. This should be her last night. She's gone. Those times she flopped on the floor? I actually thought she passed out again, or as Carrie Ann so delicately put it, "I was a little uncomfortable seeing you down again..."

Helio: Yup, 'Neves back. A very good cha cha cha cha cha...

We already know about the "Faint, but what about the rest of the night? My down-and-dirty summation: Jennie and Scary had their best "DWTS" outings so far. Everyone one else - blah, except for Sabs, who couldn't blow this comp if she wanted to.

Now, to the scores:

Marie: Lumpy, tired, bland, sodden. But Marie faints and gets the sympathy vote. Now, call the doctor...

Jane: This comes under the heading "GBD" - good but dull. She rhumbaed. I snoozed.

Mark: Hey! I liked Billionaire Guy tonight. "Dream of Jeannie" was a risk, so were the eyeglasses, and the gimmick probably stole a few million glances away from the fact that the dance wasn't all that accomplished, but at least it was diverting.

Sabrina: Another winner. She takes a slow song, and makes it energetic and visually interesting.

Jennie: The best of the night, to this point. She just had it all, or mostly all - grace, style, athleticism. She's one of my favorite dancers - all heart, and you really get the sense that she's working hard to win this thing.

Helio: A bummer of a performance. And from Helio! The guy was board-stiff and his rhumba rivaled Jane's for dullest. Though an off-night, one hopes voters don't penalize the comp's best male hoofer.

Scary B.: She and partner Maksim have a snippy little moment in the prologue...plus, she's gotta cold...and he's wearing a protective mask (whaaa??!!)...and, of course, you realize, the more dismal the picture painted by producers, the better the dance. They - the producers - did not disappoint: This was by far the night's best. No way Scary lands in the bottom two tonight.

Cam: Oh Lord, back to his brickish ways. It was a very bad night for Cam, and he seemed to know it would be lousy - why else open the shirt? Keeps his fans' eyes (whoever they are) off his leaden feet. Too bad - he had a great week last week. But he should be fine.