The TV Zone

The Screen Actors Guild contract is up, oh, just about twelve hours from now, and to many in Hollywood and beyond, that moment represents - or has represented - D Minute, when thousands of SAG-repped thesps storm the Studio's bastille and, by so doing, halt the production of hundreds of shows from sea to sea. And following weeks of a standoff - not to mention an internecine battle now underway between SAG and AFTRA - a strike seemed closer to a certainty than not just last week.

But suddenly, all's looking well, for the moment at least. In a statement to the press yesterday, SAG boss said a strike isn't going to happen right now. This may have been an attempt to take the PR high-ground from the studios which could - theoretically - lock out the actors tomorrow morning. The theory is that a hardball move like this would force actors to take a contract, but a lockout also seems inconceivable because that shuts down the industry once again, just months after the crippling writers' action ended. For producers, that's called cutting off your nose to spite your face.

“We have taken no steps to initiate a strike-authorization vote by the members of Screen Actors Guild,” said Alan Rosenberg, who's been waging a rear-guard action against AFTRA to sink its proposed contract. “Any talk about a strike or a management lockout at this point is simply a distraction. The Screen Actors Guild national negotiating committee is coming to the bargaining table every day in good faith to negotiate a fair contract for actors.”

What happens next? Everyone waits til next Monday to see if AFTRA members support or reject their new contract. If the smaller union rejects - unlikely but one never knows - then that gives SAG more power at the bargaining table, but also gives the studios another reason for a lock-out.

What do I think will happen? Glad you asked. AFTRA passes, SAG ultimately gets a new deal, and everyone lives happily ever after, or for two years, after which point everyone - writers AND actors - go on strike together and force some genuinely meaningful concessions from the studios.

(Photo: Genaro Molina of the Los Angeles Times. Are we about to see repeats like this one already?!)