This year will bring some surprises in terms of what is nominated - and not nominated - for best new musical. Ten years ago, the question was a lot easier. One year, you might remember, SUNSET BOULEVARD was the only musical nominated - it was the only new musical.
Only one new muscical is guaranteed a nomination - SPRING AWAKENING. But will it win? Hard to say.
Let's look at the other possibilities:
1. LEGALLY BLONDE - received some mixed-to-negative reviews last week, but it's doing pretty well commercially at the moment and has a lot of buzz since it opened last week. If it is nominated, and it probably will be, it could be the greatest challenge to the success of SPRING AWAKENING.
2. CURTAINS - this also received mixed-to-negative reviews, but has the distinction of being a posthumous Kander and Ebb musical, sporting a well-liked cast of great ensemble muscial theater performers.
3. GREY GARDENS - Besides SPRING AWAKENING, this is surely the most well-constructed new musical of the season. However, it opened too early, and has possibly lost its buzz. It also has the impression now of being seen mainly for Christine Ebersole's star-powering performance, rather than the intelligence of its score and book.
4. LOVEMUSIK - this seemed like a sure bet for a nomination, but though Donna Murphy and Michael Cerveris got great reviews for their performances, everyone essentially smashed the book and the overall construction. In any event, I can't help but imagine this being a very awkward show to highlight at the Tonys, rather like THREEPENNY OPERA was last year.
5. MARY POPPINS - you know, I think it's chances of getting nominated are pretty good, all things considered. As much as I dislike the show and was disappointed by it, it would be fun to see Mary Poppins glide down the auditorium of Radio City Music Hall.
6. THE PIRATE QUEEN - no chance in hell.
7. THE TIMES THEY ARE A CHANGIN' - no chance in hell.
8. HIGH FIDELITY - no chance in hell.
So, here is the list that I suspect will make up the nominated musicals:
1. SPRING AWAKENING
2. LEGALLY BLONDE
3. GREY GARDENS
4. MARY POPPINS